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  • IPC-CREEBBA MAYO 2022

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    En mayo el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) CREEBBA aumentó un 5,8%, presentando una aceleración en los precios respecto al mes de abril. De este modo la variación en comparación a igual mes de 2021 fue del 54,6% y el acumulado anual se ubicó en 25,9%. Para mayor detalle en el cuadro 2 y en el gráfico 1 se muestra una breve síntesis de los índices y sus variaciones correspondientes a los nueve capítulos de la canasta del IPC CREEBBA. Durante el mes de mayo en Bahía Blanca el mayor aumento a nivel capítulos tuvo lugar en Salud con un alza del 9,2%, ubicándose por encima del nivel general. El mismo respondió a incrementos del 10,7% en servicios prepagos y auxiliares, 9,8% en medicamentos, 6,7% en médicos y odontólogos y 6,5% en elementos para primeros auxilios. Los capítulos Educación, Vivienda y Esparcimiento presentaron un crecimiento similar al nivel general de 5,8%, respectivamente. Se presenta a continuación el IPC-CREEBBA según categorías IPC-Núcleo, Estacional y Regulado (cuadro 3) y según Bienes y Servicios (cuadro 4). Durante mayo, la categoría Regulados se ubicó por encima del resto de las categorías, registrando un crecimiento de 6,3% en relación al mes anterior. Esta variación...

  • Argentina's Real FX is at its lowest level in 4 years

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    By Juan Carlos Hallak "We all know that the way out is to increase exports. However, all efforts to achieve this are fading with a falling (real) dollar. In fact, we are at the highest point of exchange rate appreciation of the AF era. How can we explain that the official FX is falling?" Related dataset: Monetary - Argentina - BCRA - Multilateral Real FX...

  • Argentina: Economic subsidies report scandalous figures

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    By Gabriel Caamaño "The evolution of economic subsidies during Q1 2022 is scandalous however you look at it (+125% YoY), but I think it will be much more brutally appreciated this way. The mess they've made there. Segmentation, besides being counterproductive, is going to be aspirin." Related dataset: Fiscal - Argentina - MECON - IMIG -...

  • Argentina's inflation: The worse Q1 in 30 years

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "If #inflation in March is 6.5%, it would close at 15.6% (80% annualized) during Q1-2022. Since '43 (excluding the period from '76 to '91), only 3 years have had worse YTD starts ('45, '59 and '73). Current levels are very similar to Q1-1975, the quarter before the Rodrigazo (85% annualized)." Related dataset [Inflation - Latin America - Alphacast - Consumer Price Index - Headline - Monthly...

  • Carry Trade: The Return of the King

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "The carry trade is back, long live the carry trade. Throughout Treasury's auctions we might see that when the rates in pesos were positive after hedging through FX futures (ergo investing in ARS yields USD gains) the FX faced less devaluation pressures. During the lasy weeks, the carry trade helped to “calm down” the dollar, which appreciated by 22% from the peak of ARS 244 at the end of last January. Will this FX peace last? The rate hiking by BCRA turned the spotlight on carry trade strategies, but it is currently offset by both rising futures’ prices and an accelerating inflation. Besides, there is an additional variable that could push-up the depreciation pace of the peso: the BCS’s cost, which is at a 15-month low. That said, it could encourage investors to take advantage of the state of affairs and to wire their USD abroad." Related dataset Financial - Argentina - Carry...

  • Argentina: On IMF-related interest

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "Argentina has asked for the IMF to assist it through an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to pay the previous Stand By Agreement (SBA, signed in 2018). As stated by the Fund in EFF's factsheet the interest burden is the base rate (1.2%) plus a surcharge, which depends on how much is requested and for how long. For large credits (above of 187.5% of each country's quota in the IMF), the surcharge is 2%. If after 51 months the residual loan is still above 187%, the surcharge rises to 3%. That said, the Argentina's EFF represents over 1000% of its quota: for a long time, our country will pay at least 3.2% per year. Taking into account that, the outstanding capital payments of the SBA is meant to be paid with the upcoming EFF credits, both loans' interest must be paid as well. On Jun-26, 51 months after the first EFF disbursements, the rate rises to 4.2%. Meaning? On USD 44bn, for over 12 years, Argentina will have to face interest rates between 3.2% and 4.2%." Related dataset Fiscal - Argentina - Public Debt Profile...

  • LATAM GDP

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    by Robin Brooks "LatAm real GDP growth: Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 Chile (red): +10.1% Colombia (pink): +8.0% Argentina (black): +5.0% Peru (dots): +2.1% Brazil (blue): +1.1% Mexico (orange): -2.5%" Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Monthly Gross Domestic Product Estimate (EMAE) - Monthly_Long Activity - Brazil - BCB - Gross Domestic Product Activity - Chile - BCCh - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Colombia - DANE - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Monthly Gross Domestic Product...

  • IPC-CREEBBA ENERO 2022

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    En enero el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) CREEBBA aumentó un 3,3%, exhibiendo una mínima baja respecto al mes previo (3,4%). De este modo la variación en comparación a igual mes de 2021 fue del 46,8%. Para mayor detalle en el cuadro 2 y en el gráfico 1 se muestra una breve síntesis de los índices y sus variaciones correspondientes a los nueve capítulos de la canasta del IPC CREEBBA. Durante el mes de enero en Bahía Blanca, el mayor aumento a nivel capítulos tuvo lugar en Esparcimiento con un alza del 7,0%. El mismo respondió a incrementos del 10,7% en hoteles y excursiones, 10,3% en diarios, 5,9% revistas y 4,6% en clubes y espectáculos deportivos. Se presenta a continuación el IPC-CREEBBA según categorías IPC-Núcleo, Estacional y Regulado (cuadro 3) y según Bienes y Servicios (cuadro 4). Durante enero, la categoría Estacional se ubicó por encima del resto de los rubros, registrando un crecimiento de 6,8% en relación al mes anterior. Esta variación se explica principalmente por el aumento en verduras, tubérculos y legumbres frescas (13,4%), hotel y excursiones (10,7%), frutas frescas (8,8%), ropa exterior para mujer (7,1%) y calzado para mujer (2,6%). En segundo lugar, se ubicaron los...

  • Inheritance Tax & Energy Subsidies

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    Facing insignificance Inheritance Tax revenue is currently 1.200 million ARS in Bs AS Province, which accounts for 40% of the total population. Even assuming it was 10.000 million for the entire Nation (overcorrecting for a 3x factor), it would barely account for 1% of the +1.000.000 million ARS that will be spent on Energy Subsidies this year. Even a 10% cut (& partial re-assignment) in the very pro-rich energy subsidies would be 10x times more progressive than this Tax, with many other side effects regarding macroeconomic...

  • Crowding Out | CEA Perspectives

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    By Centro de Economia Aplicada Perspectives' column for October 2021. This section of the Center for Applied Economics (CEA) of UCEMA offers an analysis of prominent economists, with different orientations about economic problems of our country and the world. The plan to pay off the debt is to grow. The plan to reduce the fiscal deficit is to grow. The plan to lower inflation is to grow. The plan to reduce poverty is to grow. It seems that the solution to everything is economic growth. Unfortunately, we do not grow. The causes of the economic stagnation (to be generous) that has trapped us since 2011 are undoubtedly many, but today I want to focus on one: the lack of credit to the productive private sector. To grow you have to invest. If an entrepreneur wants to invest, he has two paths: he can use his own funds or he can resort to the capital market and obtain funds from third parties. The Argentine capital market is non-existent. According to the World Bank, the market capitalization of all publicly listed companies in Argentina is equivalent to 8.8% of GDP. In Brazil, the market capitalization is equivalent to 68.4% of GDP, in...

  • Argentina: Government Confidence Index

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    by Juan Negri "The Government Confidence Index (GCI) that we do in @UTDT_Gobierno is out now. It fell almost 5 points over the last month. It is the lowest value of the AF government, even below Macri's worst measurement (April 2019) and still with two more remaining years in the office" #Argentina Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - UTDT - Consumer and Government Confidence -...

  • Argentina: October's fiscal result

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    by El Cronista "The "Platita" plan, the economic measures that the government took in order to try to reverse the results of the PASO elections, had an obvious correlation in a rising of public expenditure by 83% YoY and an increase in the deficit in October. https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/el-plan-platita-obligo-a-martin-guzman-a-abrir-la-billetera-antes-de-las-elecciones/" #Argentina Related Datasets Fiscal - Argentina - MECON - IMIG -...