Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

Alphacast

OECD - Seasonally adjusted

Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

Luciano Cohan

This dataset includes OECD's Amplitude adjusted and normalised Composite Leading Indicators. The composite leading indicator (CLI) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles showing fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used as the reference for identification of turning points in the growth cycle for all countries, except for China for which the OECD relies on the value added of industry at 1995 prices. The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (GDP) at turning points. A CLI reading above (below) 100 is always an indication that anticipates levels of GDP above (below) long-term trend. Month-on-month increases (decreases) in the CLI generally imply an acceleration (deceleration) in anticipated GDP growth, above (below) long-term GDP growth. The monthly level of the CLI does not provide a quantifiable measure of GDP growth. The further the CLI reading from 100, the greater the degree of confidence (strength) can be attached to the CLI signal, and in particular whether GDP is expected to be above or below long-term trend.

Monthly Composite Leading Indicators

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organization with 36 member countries, founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. The OECD provides a forum in which governments can work together to share experiences and seek solutions to common problems.

Sources

Monthly Composite Leading IndicatorsOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)