Guido Schiavi
@guidoschiavi
Published work
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 31th to September 6th 2026
Weekly inflation accelerated in the first September reading. Consumer prices rose 0.48% WoW, up from 0.32% in the previous week. The monthly run rate remained stable at 1.5% MoM, while annual inflation continued to ease, declining to 31.7% YoY from 32.1%. The weekly acceleration was mainly driven by regulated and seasonal prices, while core inflation remained broadly stable. Regulated prices rose sharply to 0.66% WoW from 0.23%, while seasonal inflation increased to 0.56% from 0.38%. Core inflation edged up only slightly, to 0.36% WoW from 0.35%. On a monthly basis, regulated inflation increased to 1.5% MoM from 1.3%, while seasonal inflation eased to 1.7% from 1.8% and core inflation declined to 1.5% from 1.6%. Overall, the first September reading showed a marked pickup in weekly inflation, driven primarily by stronger regulated and seasonal price dynamics, while core inflation remained comparatively stable. Despite the weekly acceleration, the headline monthly run rate held at 1.5% MoM, as higher regulated inflation was offset by moderation in seasonal and core components. Annual inflation extended its downward trend, falling to 31.7%...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI- August 1st to 31th 2026
August inflation declined further from the previous month, reaching its lowest monthly reading so far this year. Headline prices increased 1.54% MoM, down from 1.78% MoM in July, while annual inflation stood at 32.6% YoY. Inflation accumulated 20.6% during the first eight months of the year, while August’s monthly pace implies an annualized rate of around 20.1%. The monthly slowdown was mainly driven by regulated and seasonal prices, while core inflation remained broadly stable. Regulated inflation fell sharply to 1.14% MoM, from 1.9% MoM in July, while seasonal inflation slowed to 2.02% MoM from 2.3%. In contrast, core inflation edged up slightly to 1.64% MoM, from 1.6% in the previous month. Overall, the August print reinforced the moderation in headline inflation, although the improvement was not broad-based. Lower regulated prices accounted for a significant part of the decline, while seasonal pressures also eased. Meanwhile, core inflation remained sticky at around 1.6%, suggesting that underlying inflationary pressures were broadly unchanged from July. This composition was also reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices remained the main contributor to the monthly print, adding approximately 0.93 pp, largely due to their greater weight in the consumer basket. Regulated prices contributed around...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 17th to 23th 2026
Weekly inflation accelerated in the third August reading. Consumer prices rose 0.21% WoW, up from a revised 0.14% in the previous week. Despite the weekly acceleration, the monthly run rate continued to ease, declining to 1.2% MoM from a revised 1.5%, while annual inflation remained broadly stable at 31.5% YoY versus a revised 31.5%. The weekly acceleration was driven by stronger seasonal and core price dynamics, while regulated prices slowed markedly. Seasonal prices rose 0.26% WoW, up from a revised 0.13%, while core inflation increased 0.24% WoW from a revised 0.06%. In contrast, regulated prices slowed to 0.12% WoW from a revised 0.31%. On a monthly basis, however, inflation moderated across all three components: seasonal inflation declined to 1.8% MoM from a revised 2.3%, core inflation to 1.4% from 1.6%, and regulated inflation to 0.5% from 0.8%. Overall, the third August reading showed a pickup in weekly inflation, driven by firmer seasonal and core prices, partly offset by a significant slowdown in regulated prices. At the same time, the headline monthly run rate extended its downward trend to 1.2% MoM, with moderation across all major components. Annual inflation remained virtually unchanged at 31.5% YoY. Methodological update Weeks ago, Alphacast updated...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 10th to 16th 2026
Weekly inflation decelerated in the second August reading. Consumer prices rose 0.23% WoW, down from 0.40% in the previous week. The monthly run rate also eased, declining to 1.5% MoM from 1.7%, while annual inflation fell further to 31.7% YoY from 32.0%. The weekly slowdown was driven by softer seasonal and core price dynamics, while regulated prices accelerated slightly. Seasonal prices rose 0.29% WoW, down from 0.64% in the previous week, while their monthly run rate edged lower to 2.5% MoM from 2.6%. Core inflation slowed to 0.17% WoW from 0.42%, with its monthly pace remaining stable at 1.7% MoM. In contrast, regulated prices increased 0.32% WoW, slightly above the previous week's 0.27%, although their monthly run rate continued to ease, falling to 0.8% MoM from 1.1%. Overall, the second August reading showed a moderation in weekly inflation after the acceleration observed at the beginning of the month, mainly reflecting weaker seasonal and core price increases. At the same time, the headline monthly run rate continued to decline, supported by the ongoing moderation in regulated prices. Annual inflation also extended its downward trend, reaching 31.7% YoY. Methodological update Weeks ago, Alphacast updated the methodology of its High-Frequency Inflation Index. The...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 3th to 9th 2026
Weekly inflation accelerated sharply in the first August reading. Consumer prices rose 0.40% WoW, up from a revised 0.09% in the previous week. Despite the weekly acceleration, the monthly run rate eased slightly, declining to 1.6% MoM from 1.7%, while annual inflation fell to 32.0% YoY from 32.4%. The weekly acceleration was broad-based across all major components. Seasonal prices rose 0.60% WoW, compared with 0.19% in the previous week, while their monthly run rate increased slightly to 2.4% MoM from 2.3%. Core inflation accelerated to 0.43% WoW from 0.15%, while its monthly pace remained stable at 1.7% MoM. Regulated prices also rebounded, rising 0.27% WoW after declining 0.06% in the previous week, although their monthly run rate continued to ease, falling to 1.1% MoM from 1.4%. Overall, the first August reading showed a broad-based acceleration in weekly price dynamics, following the unusually weak increase recorded in the previous week. However, this did not translate into stronger monthly inflation, as the headline run rate continued to edge lower, supported by the ongoing moderation in regulated prices. Annual inflation also declined more noticeably, falling below 32% for the first time in the recent readings. Methodological update Weeks ago, Alphacast updated the methodology...
Alphacast High Frequency CPI - July 27th to August 2th 2026
Weekly inflation decelerated sharply in the final July reading. Consumer prices rose 0.25% WoW, down from the revised 0.51% in the previous week. The monthly run rate also eased slightly, declining to 1.7% MoM from 1.8%, while annual inflation edged up to 32.7% YoY from 32.5%. The weekly slowdown was broad-based across all major components. Seasonal prices rose 0.36% WoW, compared with a revised 0.87% in the previous week, although their monthly run rate increased to 2.4% MoM from 2.2%. Core inflation slowed to 0.30% WoW, from a revised 0.63%, while its monthly pace rose slightly to 1.7% MoM from 1.6%. Regulated prices recorded the lowest weekly increase, rising 0.10% WoW, down from a revised 0.14%, while their monthly run rate declined more noticeably to 1.5% MoM from 1.8%. Overall, the final July reading showed a broad-based moderation in weekly price dynamics, reversing part of the acceleration observed in the previous week. The monthly inflation rate eased marginally, mainly supported by slower regulated-price growth, although annual inflation continued to increase slightly. Methodological update Last week, Alphacast updated the methodology of its High-Frequency Inflation Index. The price sample was expanded by more than 300%, while estimates for the previous 12 months...
