Guido Schiavi
@guidoschiavi
Published work
Weekly inflation slowed further in the latest October reading. Consumer prices rose 0.27% WoW, down from 0.54% in the previous week. Despite the weekly moderation, the monthly run rate increased to 2.3% MoM, from 2.1%, while annual inflation eased to 31.8% YoY, from 32%. The weekly moderation was broad-based, with all three components recording slower price increases. Seasonal prices rose 0.27% WoW, slightly below the previous week's 0.31%, while core inflation slowed to 0.17%, from 0.21%. Regulated prices recorded the sharpest deceleration, falling to 0.45% WoW, from 1.27%. On a monthly basis, seasonal inflation increased to 2.6% MoM, from 2.4%, while core and regulated inflation both rose to 2.2%, from 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively. Overall, the latest reading showed a further slowdown in weekly inflation, particularly among regulated prices. However, despite the sharp deceleration, regulated inflation remained elevated relative to core and seasonal prices, continuing to exert upward pressure on headline inflation. Meanwhile, the monthly run rate increased to 2.3% MoM, even as annual inflation declined to 31.8%...
September inflation accelerated from the previous month, interrupting the moderation observed in recent months. Headline prices increased 1.85% MoM, up from 1.54% MoM in August, while annual inflation stood at 32% YoY. Inflation accumulated 22.8% during the first nine months of the year, while September’s monthly pace implies an annualized rate of around 24.5%. The monthly acceleration was broad-based, with core inflation accounting for most of the increase. Core inflation rose to 1.91% MoM, from 1.64% in August, while regulated inflation increased to 1.68%, from 1.14%. Seasonal inflation also edged up to 1.96% MoM, from around 1.9% in the previous month. Overall, the September print marked a reversal of August’s moderation, with inflationary pressures strengthening across the main components of the index. The acceleration in core inflation was particularly relevant, as underlying prices moved back toward 2% MoM after remaining close to 1.6% in July and August. At the same time, the rebound in regulated prices added further pressure to the headline figure, while seasonal inflation remained close to 2%. This composition was also reflected in the breakdown of headline inflation. Core prices remained the main contributor to the monthly print, adding approximately 1.08 pp, reflecting both their acceleration and...
Weekly inflation moderated in the fourth September reading. Consumer prices rose 0.63% WoW, down from the revised 0.70% in the previous week. Despite the weekly moderation, the monthly run rate increased to 1.8% MoM, from 1.7%, while annual inflation edged up to 32.3% YoY, from 31.9%. The weekly moderation was driven by slower seasonal and core inflation, while regulated prices accelerated. Seasonal prices rose 0.71% WoW, down from 0.94% in the previous week, while core inflation slowed to 0.60%, from 0.86%. In contrast, regulated prices accelerated to 0.64% WoW, from 0.31%. On a monthly basis, seasonal inflation increased to 2.0% MoM, from 1.7%, while core inflation rose to 1.9%, from 1.7%. Regulated inflation remained stable at 1.6%. Overall, the fourth September reading showed some moderation in weekly inflation, led by slower seasonal and core price dynamics and partly offset by an acceleration in regulated prices. However, the monthly run rate continued to rise, reaching 1.8% MoM, while annual inflation increased to 32.3%...
Weekly inflation accelerated sharply in the third September reading. Consumer prices rose 0.75% WoW, up from a revised 0.38% in the previous week. The monthly run rate increased to 1.7% MoM, from 1.5%, while annual inflation edged up to 32.0% YoY, from a revised 31.6%. The weekly acceleration was mainly driven by seasonal and core prices, while regulated inflation increased more moderately. Seasonal prices rose 1.02% WoW, up from a revised 0.50%, while core inflation accelerated to 0.92%, from a revised 0.45%. Regulated prices increased 0.32% WoW, compared with a revised 0.21% in the previous week. On a monthly basis, seasonal and core inflation both increased to 1.7% MoM, from 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, while regulated inflation edged up to 1.6%, from 1.5%. Overall, the third September reading showed a marked acceleration in weekly inflation, with stronger seasonal and core price dynamics accounting for most of the increase. This pushed the headline monthly run rate up to 1.7% MoM, while annual inflation rose slightly to 32.0%...
Weekly inflation accelerated in the second September reading. Consumer prices rose 0.50% WoW, up from revised 0.42% in the previous week. The monthly run rate remained stable at 1.5% MoM, while annual inflation edged up to 31.8% YoY, from 31.6% previously. The weekly acceleration was mainly driven by seasonal and core prices, while regulated inflation moderated sharply. Seasonal prices rose 0.67% WoW, up from 0.36%, while core inflation accelerated to 0.59% from 0.32%. In contrast, regulated prices increased 0.24% WoW, down from 0.65% in the previous week. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased to 1.6% MoM from 1.5%, while seasonal and regulated inflation both stood at 1.5%. Overall, the second September reading showed a further acceleration in weekly inflation, driven by stronger seasonal and core price dynamics. The sharp moderation in regulated prices partially offset these pressures, allowing the headline monthly run rate to remain unchanged at 1.5% MoM. Meanwhile, annual inflation edged up to 31.8% YoY, interrupting the downward trend observed in recent...
