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Alphacast High Frequency CPI - August 3th to 9th 2026

Alphacast High Frequency CPI
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Alphacast High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 0.4% WoW

Weekly inflation accelerated sharply in the first August reading. Consumer prices rose 0.40% WoW, up from a revised 0.09% in the previous week. Despite the weekly acceleration, the monthly run rate eased slightly, declining to 1.6% MoM from 1.7%, while annual inflation fell to 32.0% YoY from 32.4%.

The weekly acceleration was broad-based across all major components. Seasonal prices rose 0.60% WoW, compared with 0.19% in the previous week, while their monthly run rate increased slightly to 2.4% MoM from 2.3%. Core inflation accelerated to 0.43% WoW from 0.15%, while its monthly pace remained stable at 1.7% MoM. Regulated prices also rebounded, rising 0.27% WoW after declining 0.06% in the previous week, although their monthly run rate continued to ease, falling to 1.1% MoM from 1.4%.

Overall, the first August reading showed a broad-based acceleration in weekly price dynamics, following the unusually weak increase recorded in the previous week. However, this did not translate into stronger monthly inflation, as the headline run rate continued to edge lower, supported by the ongoing moderation in regulated prices. Annual inflation also declined more noticeably, falling below 32% for the first time in the recent readings.

Methodological update

Weeks ago, Alphacast updated the methodology of its High-Frequency Inflation Index. The price sample was expanded by more than 300%, while estimates for the previous 12 months were revised following improvements in price sampling and classification procedures. These changes are strictly statistical rather than econometric and do not modify the underlying conceptual framework of the index.

As a result, the root mean squared error declined from 0.45 pp to 0.29 pp for headline inflation and from 0.71 pp to 0.46 pp for core inflation. This represents a reduction in estimation error of approximately 35% and 36%, respectively.

To illustrate the impact of the methodological update, under the previous methodology July headline inflation would have been estimated at 1.22% MoM, compared with 1.73% MoM under the updated methodology. Similarly, core inflation would have been estimated at 0.93% MoM, compared with the current estimate of 1.59% MoM. This represents an upward revision of approximately 0.52 pp for headline inflation and 0.66 pp for core inflation.

These differences reflect the expansion of the price sample and improvements in sampling and price-classification procedures, rather than a change in the underlying price dynamics observed during the month.

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