SEIDO Macro Update: How does an FX shock look?The government seems to be following the Rocky Balboa FX strategy (“It's not about how hard you hit. It's about how hard you can…
A new set of measures has been announced by the Central Bank and the Treasury to curb the currency run and the FX reserves depletion. Despite the coordinated message to…
The government enacted a new set of regulations tightening FX controls to new extreme levels. The combo includes an increase of the exchange rate through taxes for dollarization purposes, further rationing of…
With the debt exchange behind, the focus is now back to macro imbalances. The fiscal deficit is headed towards a record high and the size of the domestic financial market makes…
[Fiscal] Fiscal data surprised (positively) in July, but 2020 is headed for a record deficit. The above expectations results were especially driven by the expenditure side. Even though we consider that these short-term…
[Prices] INDEC's Inflation accelerated to 2.2% in June, above our expectations (1.9% est.), Acceleration was mostly driven by dollarized goods: clothing, and household and recreation equipment. We believe that this…
[Debt] Relevant creditors (those with enough holdings to complicate the exchange) signed a lock-up agreement and presented a counteroffer with an average NPV of USD 56 (at a 10% exit yield)…
After a convulsive Q2, a high uncertainty third quarter has begun. We highlight in this report how June's data has updated our view of the near future and how and…
[Activity] April's Oficial activity was published this week, with a higher than expected contraction -17.5% MoM S.A, the largest monthly decline al least since 1970 (the second largest being last March's…
[Activity] A lot of activity data was released this week, with mixed signals. Q1 GDP was released, with a contraction of 4.8% QoQ with just 10 days of COVID lockdown. Investment…