Alphacast

@alphacast

Joined
March 2021
Members
26
Links
www.alphacast.io/@Alphacast_www.linkedin.com/company/alphacastgithub.com/alphacastio

alphacast's insights

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Tracking Mexico's Diverse Bond Market with Alphacast

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    By Martina Mas(mmas@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Multiplicity of Mexican bonds, such as UDIBONOS, Bonos G, CETES and Bonos D represent a crucial source of funding for the Mexican government's operations and provide an investment option that supports the country's economic growth while generating investment returns In order to that, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) plays a privoral role in collecting, analyzing, and synthesizing extensive data related to the diverse range of government securities held by different entities in the economy. Let us take a closer look at each of these instruments and the available information to analyze the bond´s market in Mexico. Fixed-income securities Bondes D, also known as Development Bonds of the Federal Government, are medium-term fixed-rate bonds issued by the government to finance development projects and social works in the country. All these instrument are issued in the Mexican market but denominated in US dollars. Here our dataset Markets - Mexico - Banxico - Bondes D collects daily nominal stock data in millions of pesos. Stock values for different categories are provided like residents, banking sectors, investment funds, insurance and surety companies, and others. Also information is available for the last month and year, and there...

  • franciscofernandez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Exploring Mexico's Money Market Interest Rate with Alphacast

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    By Francisco Fernández Access Money Market Interest Rate data here With Alphacast you can monitor accurately and in real time the interest rates of the money market in Mexico. A key information when analyzing the Mexican financial market. Our data comes from Banxico, guaranteeing accurate and reliable information for financial decisions. Real rates In Alphacast charts are automatically updated. You will be able to clearly and visualize the evolution of interest rates in real-time. In addition, Alphacast allows you to use several datasets at the same time and customize the variables as you wish. For example, you can get the real money market rate and have a complete overview of the financial context. We suggest you to give a quick read to how to calculate variables and a full list of all fuctions. Read more Alphacast Dashboards...

  • franciscofernandez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Exploring Argentina's Gasoline Prices with Alphacast

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    By Francisco Fernández Access Gasoline Prices data here Want to stay informed about gasoline price fluctuations in Argentina? Then you're in the right place! AlphaCast gives daily access to accurate and reliable data from the Secretary of Energy, which allows monitoring the value of gasoline with high frequency. Let's see what happened lately Do you know that the price of gasoline can reveal clues about government strategies? When the real price lags, it may mean that the government is seeking to increase the population's purchasing power. Alternatively, if the real price rises, it is likely that the government is adjusting its accounts and correcting relative prices. So if you really want to stay informed about Argentina's macroeconomy policy you can't miss this data source. The price of fuels has shown a declining trend throughout the presidency of Alberto Fernández, with a certain deepening during the last months. The real prices of Regular Gasoline and Premium Gasoline are approximately 25% below the values registered in December 2019. Measured at the financial FX, the liter of Regular Gasoline went from an average value of USD 1.1 during 2016/2019 to USD 0.5 in the last time. The reduction of Premium Gasoline was from...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 3 minutes to read

    Tracking Key Indicators of Private Debt in Mexico with Alphacast

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    By Martina Mas(mmas@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Short-term private debt instruments play an essential role in the Mexican financial system, providing liquidity to the economy and serving as a tool for short-term financing. Having up-to-date information every week not only keeps you informed about the current status of short-term instruments, but also enables you to generate your own data in the form of graphs, dashboards or insights as the ones that will be showed next. Our dataset Short-Term Private Debt Instruments contains weekly information of those Banxico's indicators and displays the two instruments we can find within it: commercial papers and private certificates. The first one refers to unsecured, short-term debt issued by corporations to fund their day-to-day operations. On the other hand, private certificates are short-term debt securities issued by private financial institutions traded in money markets. With Alphacast, you collect and organize valuable numbers about the Mexican financial market. For example, it is possible to track the volume of new issuances of commercial paper with weekly indicators, as well as monitor the total amount of outstanding debt in the market with the outstanding stock indicators. Total Short Term Indicators The initial step to delve into Mexico's financials...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Argentina's implicit inflation is skyrocketing

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    By Martina Mas(mmas@alphacast.io) Learn how to calculate Implicit inflation Rates here In Argentina, implicit inflation rates in the capital markets plays a key role in understanding the country's price dynamics. Given Argentina's history of elevated inflation, economic volatility and current absence of a well-established economic policy plan, monitoring implicit inflation rates has become critical. Implicit Inflation in Bonds The average implied inflation rate up to 2026 has been rising steeply since last January. Based on our IAMC dataset, all these rates represent the average inflation expected from the current date until the maturity of the bond. For the current year, the estimated monthly rates range between 6% and 8%. Looking ahead to 2026, projections suggest a slightly narrower range of 4% to 7%. On the other hand, the annual implicit inflation rate for 2023 exceeds triple digits, even surpassing 150% annually. This number represents the highest figure in 32 years, surpassing the record of 1991 when inflation (measuring by the CPI) had reached 84%. Even more, the last time Argentina surpassed triple-digit annual inflation was in October 1991 when it registered a rate of 102%. Providing an optimistic outlook, anual indicators for 2026 range between 70% and 100%, suggesting a...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 3 minutes to read

    Exploring Mexico's Yield Curves with Alphacast

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    By Martina Mas(mmas@alphacast.io) Access Global Yield Curves data here In the fast-paced realm of finance, knowledge is power. And when it comes to navigating the intricate world of yield curves, having accurate and timely information is paramount such. Our dataset provides an extensive analysis of yield curves across multiple countries, encompassing a wide range of maturities. With this information at your fingertips, you can gain valuable insights and create visual information that can help you understand the global economic outlook. Let's see World Data In AlphaCast, users have the flexibility to either create custom variables for analyzing global data or directly utilize the variables as they come within the dataset. You can add such as many variables as you need. We suggest you to give a quick read to how to calculate variables and a full list of all fuctions. Here's a sneak peek of an idea: you can visualize the spread of each country versus the United States for 10-year yield curves. The variable spread refers to the gap or difference between the yields of the government bonds of Mexico and the United States, typically measured in basis points. Related to the mencionated before, on the left you can...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Hands-On: Calculating Implicit Inflation with Alphacast

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    By Martina Mas(mmas@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Are you intrigued by the compelling world of capital markets? Alphacast provides a comprehensive collection of financial data which includes bond and treasury bill information, allowing users to analyze market trends and estimate the expected inflation rate. To begin to calculate the implicit inflation rate of any of those instruments, several key elements are necessary. First and foremost, access to reliable and friendly-user financial datasets, such as those provided by Alphacast. Our datasets includes essencial lnformation about bond yields, treasury bill rates, internal rates of return and other relevant market indicators. Let's start this process. How to determinate implicit rates in Bonds Our starting point is determinated at Financial - Argentina - IAMC - Fixed Income Report. Up to here, just select the "TIR Anual" at variables and use the Transform Data option, that will direct you to create a pipeline. It comes the right moment to put your knowledge of financial mathematics to the trial. To proceed, you should add another step and utilize the Calculate Variable option. Calculating the implicit rate requires two elements: a fixed-rate bond and an inflation-adjusted bond (such as Argentina's CER Bonds). The following formula compares...

  • franciscofernandez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Tourism Mexico

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    By Francisco Fernández Tourist arrivals to Mexico have experienced an astonishing increase after the COVID-19 pandemic. Nowadays around 33 million tourists visit Mexico each year and the government is expecting to reach nearly 40 million people throughout 2023, an unprecedented level. The country's diverse and captivating attractions, such as its rich cultural patrimony, impressive natural landscapes, and world-renowned gastronomy, attract travelers from all over the world. As a result, Mexico has become a top choice for domestic and international tourists, reaping the benefits of a booming tourism industry and contributing to its economic growth and development. Tourism plays a crucial role in Mexico's economy. The recent increase in tourist arrivals has significantly strengthened the country's foreign exchange inflow and driven job creation. Thus, the share of the activity Temporary accommodation and food and beverage production in the total GDP follows an upward trend after the pandemic: in 2022 it reached a figure of 2.2%, but still lower than its 1993/1994 peak. In particular, the sale of services to foreign tourists has reached historic highs. In addition, there has been a notable increase in domestic tourism, with higher domestic tourism consumption by Mexican residents. The combined effect of increased foreign and...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 3 minutes to read

    Unleash Data's Full Potential: New Generate AI Summary Button

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    By Martina Mas (mmas@alphacast.io) Explore our Alphacast's IA Highlights here Say goodbye to endless hours wasted sifting through data and hello to lightning-fast access to the knowledge you need. In today's fast-paced world, time is of the essence. Try the new Alphacast’s buttom and experience the incredible speed and efficiency of artificial intelligence to supercharge your information search process. It’s time to improve manual searches or endless scrolling through irrelevant results. Now this advanced tool can do the heavy lifting for you, swiftly scanning through massive datasets and provide you with a concise summary of what's happening. Let's give it new function a try. Here's a step-by-step guide to help you get started Open your preferred web browser, then when you visit Alphacast the first thing you should do is navigate to the Explore section. Now you can explore categories or craft tailored searches with precision using our advanced search functionality. Refine your results with intuitive filters, tag such as country, frequency, spurce and more, all. Our goal is to ensure that you find precisely what you're looking for, quickly and efficiently. The next step is to utilize the search bar to find the specific information we need. In this...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 3 minutes to read

    Hands On: Exploring CDS in Brazil with Alphacast

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    By Martina Mas (mmas@alphacast.io) Find out more Alphacast Highlights here It is widely known that Credit Default Swaps (or CDS) provide a way to gauge financial stability and solvency of both companies and countries. Analyzing changes in CDS premiums can provide important indicators of market expectations. In brief, Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are financial derivate that operate similarly to insurance contract: a buyer pays a premium to a seller in exchange for protection against the security's risk of default. The data belonging to this derivative is collected in our Credit Default Swap dataset for a wide range of countries. Alphacast's auto-update functionality ensures that our subscribers will have access to the latest data. We empower them to be one step ahead of the market. Step by step First af all, in order to create a pipeline in Alphacast start by clicking the "create new" button and selecting the pipeline option. As it's shown by, it is necessary to select a repository to store it in. Aditionally, keep in mind that public repositories are allowed to be editing by anyone, while private repositories limit these kind of modifications. Also avoid including sensitive information in the name and use a consistent naming...

  • martinamas published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 3 minutes to read

    Hands On: Exploring CDS in Mexico with Alphacast

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    By Martina Mas (mmas@alphacast.io) Find out more Alphacast Highlights here It is widely known that Credit Default Swaps (or CDS) provide a way to gauge financial stability and solvency of both companies and countries. Analyzing changes in CDS premiums can provide important indicators of market expectations. In brief, Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are financial derivate that operate similarly to insurance contract: a buyer pays a premium to a seller in exchange for protection against the security's risk of default. The data belonging to this derivative is collected in our Credit Default Swap dataset for a wide range of countries. Alphacast's auto-update functionality ensures that our subscribers will have access to the latest data. We empower them to be one step ahead of the market. Step by step First af all, in order to create a pipeline in Alphacast start by clicking the "create new" button and selecting the pipeline option. As it's shown by, it is necessary to select a repository to store it in. Aditionally, keep in mind that public repositories are allowed to be editing by anyone, while private repositories limit these kind of modifications. Also avoid including sensitive information in the name and use a consistent naming...

  • franciscofernandez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Trade Balance: Mexico and US

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    Not only does the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States has experienced a significant increase in value but in volume as well. Thus, the foreign commerce with the U.S. is one of the most important factors in Mexico's economy and a fundamental tool for its economic growth. Also, during the first months of 2023 the trade balance with the U.S. continued to show a positive trend. The U.S. is a major player in Mexican foreign trade: its share in Mexico's external sales was 81.8% in 2022. Meanwhile, the weight of the U.S. in Mexican imports was 43.8%, showing a steady downward trend since during the last ten years, the average weight of the U.S. in Mexican imports has been 46.0%, while in the 2003-2012 period it was 51.7%, and between 1993-2002, 71.5%. The categories most imported by Mexico from the U.S. in 2022 were; Mineral Products (USD 57bn) which includes salt, mineral fuels, oils, minerals, etc.; Machinery (USD 54bn) which comprises nuclear reactors and electronic equipment; Plastics and Rubber (USD 24bn). While the most exported categories were Machinery (USD 172bn) and Transportation (USD 93bn). Transportation includes vehicles, railways, boats and aircraft, among other products. Meanwhile, the main origins...

  • franciscofernandez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Fiscal Result March 2023

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    The fiscal deficit was ARS 258bn in March 2023. Thus, a deficit of ARS 690bn was accumulated in 1Q 2023 and the IMF target (set at ARS 441.5bn) was exceeded by 56%. Meanwhile, this 1Q fiscal excess already covered 34% of the deficit allowed during Q2. Revenues fell 21% YoY in real terms, recording 5 consecutive months of declines. The drop was explained by the awful performance of Export taxes, which fell 84% YoY and 68% vs. Q1 2022. Among the main causes, highlights the early settlement during the Soybean-FX 2 and the incentive to retain grains until the arrival of a new Soybean-FX (implemented just in April). Although primary spending decreased 17% YoY, it was not enough to avoid the weak fiscal outcome. 86% of the spending decline was explained by the drop in Economic subsidies and Social benefits. Subsidies fell 68% in the scenario of the tariff segmentation required by the IMF, while Social benefits fell by 4% due to the lag in their mobility formula and the impact of the inflationary increase. Public work was the only category that went up (+21% YoY). The higher-than-expected fiscal deficit will force the Treasury to rise the rollover rates in...

  • marianosanchez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Mar-23: Mexico's chart of the month

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) During March, the most consulted chart by our subscribers and clients in Mexico was related to the dynamics of real interest rates and came from our "Policy monetary rate tracker": Positive real rates are paving the way for a moderation in the pace of price growth, amid an aggressive, but overdue - especially compared to Brazil - tightening cycle by Banxico. That said, it hiked its monetary policy rate by 50 basis points in February despite a more dovish Fed hike. Moreover, inflation is expected to decline steadily in the coming quarters due to the impact of tighter interest rates and softer external price pressures. Absolutely in line with that,, the top 3 most popular charts for our Mexican users is completed with the following: See all Alphacast's Dashboards here...

  • franciscofernandez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Mexico March 2023 Macro Brief

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    2020 was the worst slump Mexico suffered since the Great Depression, with GDP dropping 8% YoY, and a split recovery between 2021 (4.7% YoY) and 2022 (3.1% YoY). This follows a very weak decade for Mexican growth, with GDP expanding 1.4% on average in the last ten years, but only 0.4% annually since 2018. The economy is still expected to perform weakly, with expectations in the 1-2% annual range for 2023 and 2024 - especially since Mexico's close economic ties to the United States means that any slowdown in the world's largest economy affects it greatly, a major difference from every other large Latin American country. Activity 2023 begins with improved outcomes. The Monthly GDP Estimate showed an increase in January 2023, with annual growth of 4.4% YoY (versus 2.6% YoY in December 2022) and 0.9% MoM (vs 0.1% MoM). Most sectors continued growing, led by Retail (8.2% YoY), Services (5.6% YoY), Manufacturing (4.8% YoY) and Construction (3% YoY). However, both Mining and Primary Sector showed negative results (-3.5% YoY and -1.1% YoY respectively), and, more worryingly, the favorable results achieved in December worsened. Growth in 2022 can primarily be explained as a continuing recovery from 2020, and the unimpressive...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Hands-On: Tracking US Output With Alphacast

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Whether or not the US economy will enter a recession in 2023 is a crucial question for most analysts, given the financial tensions observed over the last month, resulting from the highest interest rates in decades. Unlike most countries, that define a recession based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the United States utilizes a different definition - one provided by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which determines the business cycle peaks (and troughs) based on a series of 11 indicators. You can follow those, as well as the unemployment rate (utilized, though not directly, by NBER) in this dashboard. There is further analysis of what signs these indicators provide for output here. Most of the data is available on Alphacast so far, in repositories such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, unfortunately, a handful are not, and analyzing the complete breadth of data required is not always a possibility. Thus, this hands-on guide will show how to obtain the data from the FRED datasets, compile it, transform it, and present it - as it is in this pipeline. Given that...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - What's the inflation situation in the Americas?

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Latin America responded uniformly to the inflation surge, with varying degrees of success: Each country's price level responded to internal dynamics, but they all shared a common denominator: large monetary and fiscal stimulus packages in 2020 and sometimes even 2021, combined with surging international food and energy prices as a result of the situation in Ukraine, and global supply-side bottlenecks and disruptions from the pandemic and various global developments. Interest rate hikes over the past year have had an impact on price growth, with some countries proving more successful than others; at the same time, global financial conditions have affected and continue to affect the nations of Latin America in a variety of ways. Though prices already peaked in all countries, and February's figures seem to show inflation is on the way down in many, the degree to which efforts will not stall and the speed of the normalization of price growth will be crucial to determine whether Latin America can meet the challenges posed by the current, much more complex situation. Argentina has the highest inflation rate in the region, recently surpassing the three digit mark (102% YoY in February...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Hands On: ¿Cómo usar Alphacast para monitorear el financiamiento de PyMEs?

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    Por Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Más Alphacast Highlights disponibles en este link La economía argentina tiene una gran parte de su producción, empleo, y consumo destinado a Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (PyMEs). Para entender su situación económica y financiera, especialmente considerando la escasez de estadísticas oficiales de alta frecuencia relevantes, es posible utilizar datos sobre su financiamiento. Para este tramo especial de la economía, los ECHEQs son fundamentales - y Alphacast cuenta con un dataset del Mercado de Valores actualizado en tiempo real de los mismos, discriminando según plazo, tipo de activo, y moneda. La complejidad del dataset, además de la cantidad de datos y variables disponibles, hace que saber procesarlos y analizarlos sea crucial para un análisis adecuado de los mismos. Por ende, en esta guía hands-on, se va a mostrar como filtrar los datos, transformarlos, y presentarlos gráficamente para su mejor aprovechamiento. Para esto, se va a utilizar el engine de pipelines de Alphacast para transformar y graficar datos de ECHEQs garantizados. Dado que la fuente está disponible en nuestra base de datos, la información se actualiza regular y automáticamente, al momento que se hace pública - tanto en el dataset original como en todos los usos. Paso a...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 6 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - The US Dollar strenghtened in 2022. How has Latin America fared?

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Through 2022, the US Dollar saw record-high appreciation in Q3 and early Q4, peaking at 18% YTD (DXY Index) - second only to the 26% registered during the Volcker Shock and its astronomical interest rates. However, the dollar normalized in November and December, finishing at a high rate (8%) but not one without precedent in the last 50 years. Over the first two months of 2023, the US dollar has continued moderating, showing a mild weakening though within normal historical parameters. The currencies of the major economies of Latin America have proven surprisingly resilient, since all but two countries outperformed the dollar in 2022. This stands in contrast to major currencies such as the Euro, which fell 6.1% YTD against the dollar by the end of the year. Some of the region's economies saw changes in line with inflation by the end of 2022, with Argentina showing a depreciation of 41% YTD and Colombia also seeing a large fall in the FX, of 14.7% YTD. Chile, meanwhile, also saw a depreciation, but a more modest one - of 1.2% YTD. The rest of the region's major economies saw appreciation in their...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast Highlight - How has Latin America FX responded to the US Dollar appreciation?

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Through 2022, the US Dollar saw record-high appreciation in Q3 and early Q4, peaking at 18% YTD (DXY Index) - second only to the 26% registered during the Volcker Shock and its astronomical interest rates. However, the dollar normalized in November and December, finishing at a high rate (8%) but not one without precedent in the last 50 years. The currency of the major economies of Latin America has proven surprisingly resilient. With the exception of Argentina, where the FX felt 33% YTD, most currencies outperformed the Pound (-18%) or the Euro (-13%) and many of them even showed nominal appreciation: Uruguay (6.3%), Brazil (3.3%), Mexico (1.6%), Peru (0.5%), Chile (-12.3%) and Colombia...

  • marianosanchez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: Mutual Funds exposure to Bond Buyback Plan

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here While the NY-law bond buyback programme announced by the Argentine government spurred demand for these bonds, investors eventually seem to have responded with scepticism due to the absence of a comprehensive plan to frame the programme. So far in February, profit-taking trades in GD29D and GD30D bonds has plunged their prices by -14.8% and -12.5% respectively. On perspective, this partially offsets the rally (+32.6% and +33.1% MoM in January) they had in the weeks prior to the announcement. For those who follow the Argentine Mutual Fund industry and especially for this type of asset class, knowing a Fund's exposure to certain assets is vital. In this sense, Mutual Funds that have a larger weight in their portfolios to GD29 and GD30 bonds will be more exposed to the price volatility associated with the bond buyback programme. As a result, the performance of the Mutual Funds and hence the value of investors' investments will be affected. Based on the latest information available in our CAFCI dataset, here are the 10 Mutual Funds whose portfolios are most exposed to these bonds: In the meantime, Argentina's risk perception has worsened since the buyback...

  • luciano published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 1 minute to read

    How to convert a series to the official USD or Blue Chip Swap?

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    The pipeline engine "Apply Transform" step incorporates a new transformation that allows changing the source unit: Convert to dollar official or to Blue Chip Swap (for Argentina only). The pipeline is separated into Two steps Select ("Fetch") the dataset and its columns "Apply transform" by selecting "usddaily", "usdmonthly" or whatever corresponds to the frequency and/or CCL_daily to convert to CCL. Important: This operation uses the "Country" field to identify the country and know which currency to use. In the case of the official currencies, use this reference dataset for the conversion, and in the case of the Argentine CCL...

  • luciano published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 1 minute to read

    How is a Time Series seasonally adjusted?

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    Removing seasonality from time series is always complicated and laborious. The standard deseasonalization method is X-13ARIMA-SEATS or some other version of the methodologies maintained by the United States Census Bureau. Denationalizing usually includes using some application such as Eviews, Demetra or Stata or Python, combining it with the files that are downloaded from Census. Anyone who has also tried to seasonally adjust in Excel knows that it is cumbersome. Just for reference, about the reasons why it is important to deseasonalize the series for the analysis of the situation I wrote this article a while ago. Deseasonalize with Pipelines in Alphacast is very easy and includes only 4 steps: Fetch dataset Filter the columns we want to use (this is not strictly necessary) Step "Apply Transform", choosing the "Seasonal Adjustment" option Chart, download, or publish the dataset As an example, Let's see how to deseasonalize the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity of Mexico -> This data and Argentina's EMAE -> This...

  • luciano published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 3 minutes to read

    How to merge the content of two datasets?

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    Surely in your usual work with data, you needed to join several data sources and if your calculation tool is Excel you may solve it with some combination of the VLOOKUP, HLOOKUP, and/or MATCH formulas. Excel is a great solution in many cases, but it can be difficult in some scenarios. For example when... ...You have MANY rows. VLOOKUP can have performance issues and be very slow ...you need to search more than one field to combine the data ...the position of rows or columns changes ...you only need the data that is in both datasets ...some of the data sources change the number of rows and you have to copy or adjust the formulas. With Alphacast you can use pipelines to combine datasets and keep them connected. Step 1. Choose a data source To merge two datasets, first click the Create new button and choose pipeline. Once there use Fetch dataset to select the required dataset. You can also begin the process by clicking "Transform data" in the dataset you want to merge Step 2. Select the data source to "Merge" Then click Add step below and choose the option Merge with Dataset, there you select the dataset you...

  • luciano published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 2 minutes to read

    How to calculate a monthly end-of-period series?

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    Pipelines are an easy way to apply transformations to datasets that update automatically every time data is updated. Suppose we have a daily data series for which we need only the last value of each month. It is possible to do that in Excel. For example, an auxiliary column is added that is TRUE / FALSE depending on whether or not we are on the last day of the month, and then a pivot table or a filter is created, or another table and a vlookup. EOMONTH, for example, is used for that. Doing it with pipelines basically you don't have to do anything. The transformation is done by itself Step 1. Find the dataset and click "Transform Data" Suppose we want a monthly exchange rate series for all countries. Something like this exists in this BIS dataset but with daily frequency: "Financial - Global - BIS - Main Currencies" With the source, dataset identified click "Transform Data" on the dataset view You will now be in the Pipelines Editor Step 2. Choose the step "Resample frequency" A step is added to perform a "Frequency Resample". The source data is daily - this will be automatically detected - and then...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 9 minutes to read

    Hands on tracking Consumption and Investment in real time

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to create coincident indeces and monitor key economic variables. What is a coincident index? A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors two of the two largest components of GDP, Private Consumption and Private Fixed Investment. Since both indeces have a certain complexity, the methodology will be shown separately, though there are major similarities between the two. How to make the Investment Index In this case, we will show you how to create the coincident investment index. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. Given that the index uses the Alphacast pipelines engine and data available on the platform's database, that means that the Index will be updated to reflect it as soon as the data is uploaded in the Alphacast site - in a completely automated manner. The first step is identifying the data series...

  • flor published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 6 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: 10 gráficos que dieron forma a Argentina en 2022

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    Por Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) Más Alphacast Highlights aquí Perspectivas de inflación para los próximos 4 años: sangre, sudor y lágrimas Después de que 2022 haya tenido, con toda probabilidad, la inflación más alta de los últimos 30 años, se espera que la inflación siga siendo alta en el futuro inmediato. Con la cifra estimada para el último año un pelo por debajo del 100%, se espera que los precios sigan y se mantengan en niveles elevados, con encuestas de expertos que pronostican un crecimiento de los precios ligeramente superior para 2023 y un valor más moderado, pero aún extraordinariamente elevado, para 2024. No se espera que los precios se desaceleren significativamente, y las comparaciones históricas muestran grandes riesgos al alza y ofrecen pocas esperanzas de desaceleración. Los intereses de los pasivos remunerados, uno de los principales impulsores de la variación de la base monetaria Los factores monetarios contribuyeron a la mencionada aceleración del crecimiento de los precios, con un aumento significativo de la base monetaria a finales de 2022. En términos netos, el Banco Central aumentó la oferta de moneda en circulación, y su política monetaria contractiva se vio compensada por el pago de intereses de los pasivos remunerados,...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight: 10 charts that explain Latin America in 2022

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here 1. GDP continued recovering, but weaker conditions resulted in a slowdown Most of Latin America's economies grew in 2022, a continuation from 2021 after the COVID pandemic caused the deepest economic recession in decades, if ever, for the region's economies. However, a combination of global tailwinds, mediocre fundamentals, and an exhaustion of the post-2020 bump meant that most of the region's economies saw slowing growth throughout 2022. The slowdown is posed to continue over the next five years, returning to the tepid growth that plagued the region over the 2010s. 2. High-frequency data shows worsening trend for 2023 Using a weekly economic activity tracker from the OECD, we can see that the region saw little improvement in 2022, and in fact worsened in the final quarter. Activity appears to be close to 2019 levels for all major economies, meaning that the boost to growth that the post-pandemic recovery provided to the region's main economies might be over. Consequently, modest fundamentals and global tailwinds might take over as the defining factor for 2023 performance. 3. The labor market recovered, but at uneven rates Unemployment surged in 2020, as a result of the...

  • marianosanchez published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: 10 charts that shaped Argentina in 2022

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Inflation outlook for the next 4 years: blood, sweat, and tears After 2022 had, in all likelihood, the highest inflation printing in 30 years, inflation is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future. With the expected figure for the last year being a hair under 100%, prices are expected to follow and remain at elevated levels, with expert surveys forecasting slightly higher price growth for 2023 and a more moderate, but still extraordinarily elevated, value for 2024. Prices are not expected to deccelerate significantly, and historical comparisons show big upside risks and provide little hope of a slowdown. Remunerated liabilities interest payments among key drivers in monetary base change Monetary factors contributed to the previously mentioned acceleration of price growth, with the monetary base growing significantly by the end of 2022. On net, the Central Bank increased the supply of currency in circulation, with its contractionary monetary policy being offset by interest payments on remunerated liabilities, USD purchases, operations with the Treasury, and other factors. 2023 is not expected to be much different, with the looming election and various economic challenges making a disinflationary turn less likely. Monetary emission...

  • milagrosricchini published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 3 minutes to read

    Hands on analysing Ecuador fiscal data with Alphacast

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    By Milagros Ricchini (mricchini@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to automatize Latin American economies' analysis. In this case, we are going to make a graph of Ecuador's fiscal result and calculate its primary expenditure, which is not a variable of the dataset. First, we look for the dataset which contains the variables we need: Fiscal - Ecuador - BCE - Non Financial Public Sector Operations. The data excerpt in the overview of the dataset shows it contains multiple entities, this is useful information for the next steps in this guide, where we are going to transform the data using pipelines and create the graphs we need. So, the next step is to transform de data by clicking on the right top button "Transform Data" Now it's time for action! As we saw the dataset has multiple entities, first we are going to filter the ones we are interested in, which are overall result, primary result, total expenditures and total revenue included into the entity "Totals": When we click "Save & Preview Data" we can see the dataset we have now: As the entities "Fist Level" and "Second...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight - Argentina December 2022 Macro Brief

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    After a decade of mediocre performance, with near-zero growth since 2011 and two consecutive years of recession in 2018 and 2019, Argentina suffered a large contraction in 2020 - with GDP dropping by 9.9% in 2020. The recovery, nonetheless, was quick, with a subsequent expansion of 10.4% in 2021. Growth is expected to remain relatively strong, with professional forecasters predicting GDP to increase over 5% in 2022, but with slower rates of growth in 2023 and 2024. The main indicator to watch is inflation, however, which has increased rapidly and in a sustained fashion since 2018, where it reached 45% - and has broken post-2002 records every year except 2020. Price growth in 2022 is expected to close at roughly 100%, and price growth in 2023 is not seen as likely to decrease, with a near-identical expected inflation rate. The coming presidential elections are expected to bring further instability to the economy. Activity Post-COVID expansion continues at moderate pace. The Monthly GDP Estimate for October showed growth of 4.5% YoY, although a moderate contraction of 0.3% MoM, similar to the previous month's figures. In terms of sectors, Hotels and Restaurants showed an extremely strong performance, with most other sectors showing...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight - Uruguay December 2022 Macro Brief

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    Uruguay suffered its largest recession in decades in 2020, and the recovery has been moderate but stable. Output is expected to continue growing in 2022 and 2023, with a reopening of tourism aiding the economy. 2020 came off the back of a decade of slow and uneven growth, averaging 1.3% over the past decade and 0.6% over the past six. Regarding inflation, it has been higher and more volatile than in comparable peer countries, and remains above target - though the recent deviation is larger and more prolonged than any recent ones. The political sphere is expected to remain stable, with the current government being relatively popular. Activity The economy continues running at tepid pace. GDP figures for the third quarter of 2022 were released, and they show a major deceleration, with annual growth halving to 3.7% YoY (from 7.9% YoY in Q2-22) and negative quarterly growth, -0.2% QoQ (versus 1.4% in the previous quarter). Worringly, industrial production had negative growth in October, its worst performance since 2020 - with output dropping -4.2% YoY and-7.4% MoM. Output is expected to increase in 2022 and 2023 after a moderate rebound from the pandemic (4.4%), especially considering expectations for economic conditions; however,...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight - Mexico December 2022 Macro Brief

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    2020 was the worst slump Mexico suffered since the Great Depression, with GDP dropping 8.5% YoY, and an incomplete recovery (4.8% YoY) in 2021. This follows a very weak decade for Mexican growth, with GDP expanding 1.2% on average in the ten years, but only 0% annually since 2018. The economy is still expected to perform weakly, with expectations in the 1-2% annual range for 2022 and 2023 - especially since Mexico's close economic ties to the United States means that any slowdown in the world's largest economy affects it greatly, a major difference from every other large Latin American country. Activity The Mexican economy retains an unimpressive performance. The Monthly GDP Estimate showed a slowdown in September, with annual growth of 5.2% YoY (versus 5.7% YoY in August) and 0.9% MoM (vs 1.5% MoM). Most major sectors continued growing, led by Primary Activities (8.6% YoY), Manufacturing (8.4% YoY), Retail (6.5% YoY) and Services (5.6% YoY), retaining the relatively robust rates from the previous month. However, both Mining and Construction showed negative results (-2% YoY and -3.8% YoY respectively), and more concerningly, deepened their relatively bad performance compared to August. Growth in 2022 can primarily be explained as a continuing...

  • flor published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight - Brazil December 2022 Macro Brief

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    Although Brazil's growth has been stagnant for a decade, investment led the best performance since the 2014 crisis. That said, output is expected to continue growing but at a more moderate pace. Regarding price dynamics, inflation it is already cooling down due to hiking interest rate and tax cuts, mainly on fuels, and energy. The BCB warned that if inflation does not ease, it could increase the Selic rate even more. Despite the electoral cycle and an early, aggressive monetary policy tightening, Brazil is performing a strong fiscal consolidation in 2022. On the other hand, uncertainty prevails regarding the fiscal direction. Brazil awaits the resolution of Congress, aiming to strongly expand the ceiling on public spending in order to meet campaign promises. Activity Brazil's economic activity fell in October by 0.05% due to the effects of the monetary restriction. Although the Central Bank Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) stood positive ​​(+3.83% YoY), growth has been cooling down since July (+5.7% YoY). Simultaneously, industrial production increased 0.28% monthly, after two months in negative ground. With this result, the industrial sector increased 1.7% YoY but is still 2.1% below the level prior to the pandemic (Feb-20). Results reflect the obstacles faced by the...

  • milagrosricchini published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight - Chile December 2022 Macro Brief

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    Chile was among the fast-growing economies before it was hit by political turmoil in 2019. Ten years' growth is 2.1%. That said, it grew fast after the pandemic and nowadays it is 9% above that level. Stronger consumption was financed by three partial withdrawals of pension savings. Not only is it the single economy in the region that is contracting in 2022 but it is expected to contract in 2023 as well. Regarding inflation, they showed the worst performer of the year. The rejection of the constitutional amendment may lead to a more market-friendly path ahead. Nonetheless, social unrest, volatile copper prices, and the government’s weak parliamentary position imply a highly uncertain scenario. Activity In 2023 GDP is expected to fall 1.5%. In October, Chile's Monthly GDP Estimate grew for the third time in the year, by 0.55% MoM, while in annual terms it fell -1.3%. This growth was pushed by the mining sector (+6.4% MoM) and wholesale and retail trade (+0.4% MoM), offsetting the fall of the tertiary sector (-0.6% MoM) and of the industrial sector (-1.5% MoM). The slowdown of activity in 2022 can be explained by the cease in the Covid-19 transfers and the lack of impulse...

  • flor published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Alphacast Highlight - Peru December 2022 Macro Brief

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    Pedro Castillo was dismissed for trying to dissolve the legislative House and to establish an "exception government". Consequently, Dina Boluarte took over in his place. Far from being resolved, the conflict deepened, social discontent heated up and the government declared a state of emergency on December 14. Despite the recent slowdown, Peru is recording one of the highest rates of growth in the last decade across LATAM, only behind Colombia. That said, Peru has been struggling to return to its pre-Covid growth trend. Regarding capital markets, a larger global economic slowdown would undoubtedly have negative reverberations on Peru’s copper returns and economy. The Central Bank is not discarding further hikes of the interest rate if inflation is not lowered within the target range. On a positive note, Peruvian fiscal and external balances are showing strong performance. Moreover, both outstanding debt level (34% GDP), and interest burden (1.4% GDP) are quite low. Activity Peru's economic activity lost dynamism in the second half of 2022. The Q3 closed at 1.7%, slowing down its pace compared to the previous ones (vs. +3.8% Q1, +3.3% Q2). Growth was tempered to a greater extent by the contraction of primary production (-1.1% Feb-22, -0.8% Sep-22). Mining...

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    Alphacast Highlight - Colombia December 2022 Macro Brief

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    All in all, the macro state of affairs shows several warning signs, which the consensus incorporates in its figures by pointing to a slowdown to 2.3% in 2023. Consumption is posed to decelerate in the context of high inflation (headline 12% YoY, food 27%) as real wage contracs. With the highest figure in the region, 75% out of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption. The country faces a large, risky twin deficit of the Current Account (-6.5%) and Fiscal Account (-5.9%). That said, the Governmet interest payments account for as much as 3.9% of GDP. Activity Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 7.6% in 2022 fueled by the growth of exports, remittances and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. Colombian Monthly GDP Estimate fell -0.6% MoM in October (vs. -0.03% in September) and it is 4.6% above the previous year's level. In addition, it was mainly boosted by tertiary sector activities, such as professional and business services, with a 0.1% MoM rise, while secondary and primary activities showed negative variations of -1.5% and -2.1% MoM, respectively. Inflation Given the government's expansionary policies and similar pressures from the supply...

  • luciano published in Alphacast / Latam DSA - Dec 2022

     - 2 minutes to read

    Debt Sustainability Analysis - Costa Rica Dec 2022

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    Our Debt Sustainability Model uses the standard debt dynamic equation to generate forecasts for the Debt/GDP ratio throughout the next 10 years. Specifically, we use the following equation: $$ d{t+1} =d{t}\biggl[(1-\alpha)\biggl(\frac{1+i{dt}}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl) +(\alpha)\biggl(\frac{(1+\Delta\epsilont)(1+i{ft})}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl)\biggl] + pdt $$ In which: $$d_{t+1}$$ is the ratio Debt/GDP for the t+1 period; $$\alpha$$ is the share of foreign debt in relation to total debt; $$g_t$$ is the real growth of GDP at the period t; $$\pi_t$$ is the variation of the GDP deflator for the period t; $$\Delta\epsilon_t$$ is the devaluation of the exchange rate between the local currency to the US dollar during the period t; $$i_{dt}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the domestic debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$i_{ft}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the foreign debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$pd_t$$ is the primary deficit of the government during the period t. We account for uncertainty by applying random shocks for each variable. These shocks are constructed...

  • luciano published in Alphacast / Latam DSA - Dec 2022

     - 2 minutes to read

    Debt Sustainability Analysis - Colombia Dec 2022

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    Our Debt Sustainability Model uses the standard debt dynamic equation to generate forecasts for the Debt/GDP ratio throughout the next 10 years. Specifically, we use the following the equation: $$ d{t+1} =d{t}\biggl[(1-\alpha)\biggl(\frac{1+i{dt}}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl) +(\alpha)\biggl(\frac{(1+\Delta\epsilont)(1+i{ft})}{(1+gt)(1+\pit)}\biggl)\biggl] + pdt $$ In which: $$d_{t+1}$$ is the ratio Debt/GDP for the t+1 period; $$\alpha$$ is the share of foreign debt in relation to total debt; $$g_t$$ is the real growth of GDP at the period t; $$\pi_t$$ is the variation of the GDP deflator for the period t; $$\Delta\epsilon_t$$ is the devaluation of the exchange rate between the local currency to the US dollar during the period t; $$i_{dt}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the domestic debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$i_{ft}$$ is the implicit interest rate for the foreign debt, it is calculated as the ratio between the interest paid for the internal debt during the period t and the internal debt in the period t-1; $$pd_t$$ is the primary deficit of the government during the period t. We account for uncertainty by applying random shocks for each variable. These shocks are...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: Keeping Up With Ecuador's Economy

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here The Ecuadorian economy continues slow recovery from COVID. Given that the economy was already in a recession by 2019, Ecuador was hit particularly hard by the COVID pandemic - with a GDP contraction of 9% in 2020 and a slow recovery of 4% in 2021, with an even lower expected rate for 2022 - resulting in a similarly unimpressive labor market. Unlike most other countries, inflation in Ecuador has increased but not to extraordinary levels, resulting in a more beneficial real exchange rate. Perspectives remain muted, with slow but steady growth and no real changes in inflation, although the country's financial position may face complications in the future. The real economy and labor market show little room for improvement. Following a tepid performance in the years prior to the pandemic, the Ecuadorian economy has recovered slowly and moderately from the steep contraction it suffered in 2020. Real GDP remains more than 2% below pre-pandemic and pre-recession levels, with employment seeing a bumpy but progressive recovery. Given this, and the fact that both employment and output seemed stagnant over the previous decade, it is unlikely that growth takes off in Ecuador in...