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  • Alphacast Highlight – High-Frequency Global Growth

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    Much to analysts' and policy-makers chagrin, activity data often comes with substantial lags. Quarterly and/or monthly GDP reports reflect what happened in the recent past and they might not offer timely information about the present and future. Machine learning techniques allow researchers to fill that gap, by producing almost real-time estimates. One of such efforts is conducted by the OECD, which produces a weekly GDP growth tracker by applying a machine learning model to a panel of Google Trends data for 46 countries (see further information here). Check the OECD’s weekly growth tracker dataset here Global growth cooled down after the post-Covid 19 rebound. Central banks have been reacting to soaring inflation, with policy rates increasing worldwide. Not to mention that they have also started normalizing their balance sheets (the so-called "tapering"). It is not surprising that economic activity takes some hit, with spillovers everywhere. The first chart shows the simple average of OECD’s growth estimates for each country. Of course, any average hides heterogeneity. As expected, most developing economies are growing faster than developed ones (with the notable exception of Ukraine). However, dynamics seem pretty similar: a strong rebound, followed by some slowdown. Argentina, in particular, has suffered a...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Argentina Financial Market

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) See full interactive dashboard here By the end of 2021 and throughout the first half of 2022, inflation-linked bonds in dollars (Boncer index) remarkably outperformed local equity and hard-dollar bonds. Carry-trade profits suddenly faded away after the mid-June's Mutual fund melt-down. Signs of recovery came after BCRA started is QE program, which implied an estimated market intervention of ARS 1.1tr Until last June, Argentine bonds traded in line with emerging market or high credit risk bonds. However, the Mutual Fund crisis and the following political volatility deepened Argentina's risk perception, spreading the performance gap between its NY-law bonds (-29.3% YTD) and benchmarks ($EMB -19.5% YTD, JNK -12.9% YTD). Such local drivers were translated into a higher devaluation pressure of the Argentine peso (official FX +35.5% YTD, FX informal +37.4% YTD and BCS +40% YTD), contrary to the region (CLP +1.2% YTD, MXN -2.4% YTD and BRL -7.1% YTD). Not only does the BCRA seeks to suffocate this pressure by selling international reserves (net FX seller -72.4mn YTD) to defend the official FX rate, but also in FX futures markets (FX futures short position USD 7,072bn as of July). Upgrade to Alphacast Pro for $29 With...

  • Argentina's Financial Markets Overview

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    Other agro dashboards for Argentina: Macro - Mutual Funds - Fiscal This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Market's performances FX-related charts Markets and Bond-Implicit rates Mutual Funds...

  • Central Banks' Dashboard

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    Alphacast hosts thousands of datasets, with global coverage. You can find an interactive dashboard with at least 30 charts to keep track of global monetary events. Our new Global Central Banks Dashboard allows an updated view of monetary policy in major central banks: Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the People's Bank of China. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on this dashboard. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, add your own format and colors, and brand. Feel free to reuse everything of your own will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard. Federal Reserve See further details about the Federal Reserve balance sheet here. European Central Bank See further details about the European Central Bank balance sheet here. Bank of Japan See further details about the Bank of Japan balance sheet here. People´s Bank of China See further details about the People’s Bank of China balance sheet here. Bank of England See further details about the Bank of England balance sheet...

  • Argentina's Fiscal dynamics Dashboard

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    Take a look at our Argentina Macro Dashboard as well This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a...

  • Argentina's Agro Overview: Corn

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    This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data.. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other agro dashboards for Argentina: Soybeans - Wheat Corn Global Production (USDA) Local Production:...

  • Argentina's Agro Overview: Wheat

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    This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data.. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other agro dashboards for Argentina: Soybeans - Corn Wheat Global Production (USDA) Local Production:...

  • Argentina's Agro Overview: Soybean

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    This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data.. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other agro dashboards for Argentina: Wheat - Corn Soybeans Global Production (USDA) Local Production:...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Is Egypt heading to become the next Argentine?

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    War and inflation have shifted the global economic outlook and the rising tides of global interest rates are adding pressure to emerging economies. Among them, Egypt is beginning to stand out due to large imbalances and high global financial cycle exposure. How much is the margin to avoid a balance of payments crisis in the near future? Egypt ranks at the top on typical macro imbalances ratios. They are, at the same time, in the top 20 ranks in terms of forecasted current account deficit for 2022 and in the top 10 in interest payment to GDP. External short-term debt has risen to 4.5% and reserves are already dwindling, and now cover 5 months of imports, 5 years low. On the other hand, while gross external debt still looks in the safe zone (25%), the overall public debt is almost 90% of GDP and yearly gross financing needs account for 30% of GDP. Since the onset of the war in February, Egyptian sovereign debt has been hit. The Yield Curve moved upward in line with global rates (about 300bp) but spreads vs the USA are hitting 4 years highs. So, Looking forward, the hindsight provided by Argentina's 2017-2018 crisis looks...

  • Alphacast Highlight - The Chilean Roallercoaster

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    Despite the historical strong fundamentals, the combined effect of COVID, the Russia-Ukrainian War, and a visible shift in economic policy has cornered the Chilean economy into an atypical, unstable trend. Chile was strongly hit by the COVID lockdown in 2020. The economy saw a contraction of 15% at the peak of the crisis. The contraction was mild compared with its regional peers, and recovery was strong: current activity levels are about 8% above pre-COVID. However, most of this happened in 2021. For more than half a year now the economy looks stagnant. A surprising jobless recovery, like in many other countries around the globe. Unemployment levels are back on pre-COVID levels but with activity levels almost 3% below. After COVID about 5% of the people simply left the labor market. Chilean inflation has risen in line with increasing global energy and food prices, but Chile is ranking among the worst performers in the region (excluding of course Argentina). This has happened even though Chilean Central Bank turned hawkish and raised policy rates 7 times to 8,25%. Not enough, however, to stop real rates from turning negative to decades-low levels. External shocks explain most of the inflation acceleration but the pervasive...

  • Argentina's Mutual Funds Industry Dashboard V1.2

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    Alphacast hosts thousands of economic and financial datasets. including daily updated datasets of the Mutual Funds Industry. You can find detailed datasets based on CAFCI daily reports, mostly in these two repositories (1 and 2 ). Data covers Assets Under Management (AUM) by Fund, Detailed Portfolio by Fund, Price and Subscription Effect by Fund and Class, and Metadata per Fundand per Asset. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on those dashboards. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, and add your own format, colors, and brand. Feel free to reuse everything of your own will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other Macro Dashboards: Argentina - Brazil - Chile - Colombia - Mexico - Peru - Uruguay Total Industry. The "subscription effect" is the change in the NAV (Net Asset Values) explained by subscription and redemptions or, alternatively, the part not explained by changes in the fund price. For example, if NAV grows from $ 1.000.000 to $ 2.000.000 but the price rose only 50% then the "subscription effect" for that day is $...

  • Alphacast is expanding to Latin America!

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    Explore Alphacast to discover hundreds of new datasets and analyze the macro and financial dynamics of major economies. Keep track of daily events with the new dashboards and learn how to enhance your own work with our guides and tutorials. New Macro Dashboards Alphacast now hosts thousands of Latin American Datasets for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. For each country, we have created an interactive dashboard with at least 30 charts to keep up to date with the short-term economic outlook. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on those dashboards. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, add your own format and colors and branding. Feel free to reuse everything at your own will. Click on the country name to access its dashboard: Argentina - Brazil - Chile - Colombia - Mexico - Peru - Uruguay Beginners' guides to Latin America Data For every country, we have made a selection of the most relevant and popular datasets. Follow the beginners' guidelines for each country to discover hidden data gems and sources. Find out what are the most relevant datasets...

  • It's one small step for Alphacast, one giant leap for data

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    It's one small step for Alphacast, one giant leap for data Hello, everyone! It's been a couple of weeks since our last update. We have been doing a lot of work under the hood, particularly trying to improve the readiness of the data on the platform, the overall performance of the Notebooks, and the content you see when you interact with Alphacast (i.e. through emails, related datasets, etc). However, there have been major additions to our pipeline engine. Enjoy X new step! New Steps: FRED! If you work with economic data you probably know FRED, the massive database created by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis, that claims to have 816,000 US and international time series from 108 sources. You can now access all that data directly into Alphacast, using Alphacast pipelines. Learn more here. New Steps: Wide to Long (melt), Long to Wide (unstack) If you work with data you probably have come to the scenario where you have found the data you need but not in the shape that you need it. A typical example is when data that should be row values are columns or otherwise, a situation that cannot be solved by simply transposing...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Peru: Activity contracts 1.3% in March

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    Want to connect inflation data to Excel? Click here. Peru monthly GDP estimate, produced by INEI, showed a 1.3 % contraction during March. It is the second contraction in a row (-0.3% in February), indicating that the Peruvian economy is showing signs of stagnation due to the worsening condition on the external sector, in the sense of the Ukranian War and the China economic slowdown, and the higher inflation. Trade contracted 13.7% in March, Fishing, 3.7 % and Oil and Gas Extraction and Mining contracted 2.29 %. Construction and Manufacture grew 4.51% and 0.79 % respectively. Despite the recent slowdown, Peru is one of the countries that registered the highest rates of growth in the last decade (30 %), falling behind only to Colombia. However most of this growth happened before the pandemic. During the pandemic, Peru registered the largest drop of the region and since it's recovery it has been struggling to return to its pre-pandemic growth trend. Related content: - Click here to access the INEI- Monthly GDP...

  • Crypto is painfully discovering that it is part of the global financial system

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    A small contribution on the topic of this week: The collapse that part of the crypto ecosystem is experiencing. Word of advice: I know little about crypto and I am hardly going to talk about crypto except to say one thing: Crypto is painfully discovering that it is part of the global financial system Crypto, in addition to being a disruptive, decentralizing, and democratizing technological innovation, is a financial asset. That means that its price is increasingly determined by factors that affect financial assets and less x those that affect "technology" It is neither the first nor the only asset that underwent a similar process. Commodities, for example, became much more financial in the 1990s and early 2000s. In the global price of wheat, the conditions of the wheat market (climate, demand, supply) always mattered, but increasingly influential were its financial determinants. Buying or selling wheat became part of a portfolio decision. It even happened, for example, with other obviously financial assets: currency. Only in the 60s/70s did the economic science - while financial globalization advanced - began to think of the price of currencies as that of an asset and less as something that happens in the currency market...

  • Argentina's Real FX is at its lowest level in 4 years

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    By Juan Carlos Hallak "We all know that the way out is to increase exports. However, all efforts to achieve this are fading with a falling (real) dollar. In fact, we are at the highest point of exchange rate appreciation of the AF era. How can we explain that the official FX is falling?" Related dataset: Monetary - Argentina - BCRA - Multilateral Real FX...

  • Argentina: Economic subsidies report scandalous figures

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    By Gabriel Caamaño "The evolution of economic subsidies during Q1 2022 is scandalous however you look at it (+125% YoY), but I think it will be much more brutally appreciated this way. The mess they've made there. Segmentation, besides being counterproductive, is going to be aspirin." Related dataset: Fiscal - Argentina - MECON - IMIG -...

  • Alphacast Wednesday Update - April 13th, 2022

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    The last weeks have been great. We have seen lots of users flowing into what we think is becoming the core feature of Alphacast: the pipelines engine. We have been interviewing users and seeing how you are interacting with these new features: We discovered that users are not only creating pipelines to automatize processes but also as a workspace, to analyze the data and be able to "tell stories" with it. That's why we have come to a new product roadmap for Q2:2022: Notebooks! Introducing Alphacast Notebooks! Creating content in Alphacast often involves a back and forth between tabs. Search data, then go from Dataset to Pipeline, Back to Datasets, then to create a chart and then an insight to embed it, and back to square one. Complex pipelines and reports require no less than five open Tabs. We are working to combine the full experience of creating content into a single screen. Load the data, transform and visualize it, include comments, and tell the story. Use the new "Notebook" as a workspace to find, analyze and share data. As a first step, a new feature is in test mode: you can now create and edit a chart directly in...

  • Argentina's inflation: The worse Q1 in 30 years

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "If #inflation in March is 6.5%, it would close at 15.6% (80% annualized) during Q1-2022. Since '43 (excluding the period from '76 to '91), only 3 years have had worse YTD starts ('45, '59 and '73). Current levels are very similar to Q1-1975, the quarter before the Rodrigazo (85% annualized)." Related dataset [Inflation - Latin America - Alphacast - Consumer Price Index - Headline - Monthly...

  • Carry Trade: The Return of the King

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "The carry trade is back, long live the carry trade. Throughout Treasury's auctions we might see that when the rates in pesos were positive after hedging through FX futures (ergo investing in ARS yields USD gains) the FX faced less devaluation pressures. During the lasy weeks, the carry trade helped to “calm down” the dollar, which appreciated by 22% from the peak of ARS 244 at the end of last January. Will this FX peace last? The rate hiking by BCRA turned the spotlight on carry trade strategies, but it is currently offset by both rising futures’ prices and an accelerating inflation. Besides, there is an additional variable that could push-up the depreciation pace of the peso: the BCS’s cost, which is at a 15-month low. That said, it could encourage investors to take advantage of the state of affairs and to wire their USD abroad." Related dataset Financial - Argentina - Carry...

  • Back to Normal

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    by Lisa Abramowicz "U.S. consumers are approaching a cracking point. Savings are falling. Food and energy prices account for an estimated 20% of household outlays. Monthly mortgage payments have risen to more than 20% of incomes: Natixis, RBC data" Related Datasets Activity - USA - BEA - Personal Income and Its Disposition -...

  • US 10 Years Yield and Brazil outlook

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    by Rafaela Vitória "I've seen some moments of "conundrum" in the market. But the sharp rise in interest rates abroad accompanied by an appreciation of the real here is quite impressive. Yes, there are fundamentals, but still, the positive movement in the market here with the tighter global scenario is not common." Related Datasets Financial - Global - Rates - Yield...

  • Argentina: On IMF-related interest

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    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "Argentina has asked for the IMF to assist it through an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to pay the previous Stand By Agreement (SBA, signed in 2018). As stated by the Fund in EFF's factsheet the interest burden is the base rate (1.2%) plus a surcharge, which depends on how much is requested and for how long. For large credits (above of 187.5% of each country's quota in the IMF), the surcharge is 2%. If after 51 months the residual loan is still above 187%, the surcharge rises to 3%. That said, the Argentina's EFF represents over 1000% of its quota: for a long time, our country will pay at least 3.2% per year. Taking into account that, the outstanding capital payments of the SBA is meant to be paid with the upcoming EFF credits, both loans' interest must be paid as well. On Jun-26, 51 months after the first EFF disbursements, the rate rises to 4.2%. Meaning? On USD 44bn, for over 12 years, Argentina will have to face interest rates between 3.2% and 4.2%." Related dataset Fiscal - Argentina - Public Debt Profile...

  • Alphacast Friday Update - April 1st, 2022

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    March and Q1 have come to an end and, when we compare the platform today vs. what we had just one month ago we see changes almost everywhere! Let us do a short recap of what happened in the last two weeks. A new, super-powerful formula editor: Group, rolling windows, time functions and much more. The "Calculate Variable" is getting VERY powerful and versatile allowing more complex calculations to be done with a simple excelish formula parser. See the full list of formulas here The first step is to create a pipeline (click on "Create new --> Pipeline" on the top right) and select a data source, followed by "add step below --> Calculate Variable" Video Tutorial (In Spanish) The editor is really powerful, just to catch a glimpse on some formulas that can be created log(@Close)+ sqrt(@Volume)) log(exp(@Close)) Example: Calculate for each ticker the cumulative price change vs the first price Example: Calculate the cumulative sales per salesperson cumsum(@sales, @salesperson) Example: Calculate for each date the share of sales explained by each product vs the total sales of that date Example: calculate the 20 day moving average for each ticker rollingmean(@Close, 20, @Ticker) Example: Extract the year from the...