Political Temperature to rise as Bolsonaro tries to show strength during Brazil Independence Day
During September 7th, Brazil Independence Day, demonstrators showed up to support Bolsonaro Government. Their main claims were against Supreme Court, which according to their opinion is taking authoritarian acts, but others also claimed for “military intervention” and the return of the paper vote system. Almost all the capitals had demonstrations, but the biggest ones occurred in Brasilia and São Paulo, gathering 400 thousand people and 150 thousand, respectively.
The demonstrations occurred in a delicate moment of Bolsonaro Government. Latest polls shows that his government approval went down to 25 %, the lowest during his whole term, moreover, former President Lula, the main rival of Bolsonaro for 2022 elections, leads votes intentions by a 14 % margin. The economy is not in good shape, Inflation rose to 9 % in July, with Food and Beverages registering a 13 % inflation, while unemployment rate stands at 14.1 %.
Even though the support for Bolsonaro dropped among the population, the demonstrations showed that the Bolsonarism is pretty much alive as a movement. Bolsonaro’s speeches during the demonstrations rose the tone against Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes, stating that he would no longer comply with the Minister's decision.
Minister de Moraes leads a Supreme Court operation against “Fake News” and antidemocratic movements that has arrested several pro-Bolsonaro figures and suspended their social media accounts. Bolsonaro has already tried to impeach Mr de Moraes, however his request was turned down by Senate President Mr Rodrigo Pacheco. As a retaliation, the Senate is holding on Bolsonaro's indication for a seat in the Supreme Court, Mr André Medonça, whose thought is very aligned with Bolsonaro.
One day before the demonstrations, President Bolsonaro passed a Provisory Measure (MP) that restricts the capacity of Social Media Platforms to suspend accounts. According to the MP, the Social Medias could only restrict or suspend the accounts if there is a “fair cause”. Although, it maintains the suspensions in case of a judicial decision, the MP could be seen as an attack to Minister Alexandre de Moraes who tries to limit “Fake News” propelled by pro-Bolsonaro accounts. The Congress have 6 months to analise the MP, which is already in force. In case the Congress does not analise it, which we believe will happen, the MP is revoked immediately.
We expect political temperature to rise in the coming days. The attacks of Bolsonaro to Minister Alexandre de Moraes is seen by the court as an attack to the whole court. The Supreme Court, as an Institution will definitively answer, rising institutional frictions. Several Parties (PSDB, MDB and PSD) are considering supporting Bolsonaro impeachment, even though, it is very unlikely that the Chamber of Deputies President Arthur Lira will start the procedure, as his candidacy was supported by Bolsonaro.
The probability of an institutional rupture or a military coup by Bolsonaro’s forces is very low, even though it might be the desire of Bolsonaro. The President has weak political support to such acts, even from the Armed Forces. However, he might be setting the stage in case he loses 2022 elections, mimicking Trump movements in USA.
We see the demonstrations and declarations of Bolsonaro damaging to the economy. The rise of political tensions increases uncertainty, therefore, damaging investment plans and drives capital flows out of Brazil. Moreover, it takes the attention out of many necessary reforms proceeding in the legislative, such as the Tax Reform.
