@lucascosta93
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A short guide to Peruvian macro data
Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Peru? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has official statistics from INEI and BCRP. However, this short guide will help you find the our "must-see" datasets. Peru Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Peru Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP), the National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI) and Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finances (MEF). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of the Peruvian Economy, you can monitor...
A short guide to Peru macro data
**Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Brazil? There are more than 400 datasets for Brazil (See for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Brazil, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Brazil Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Brazil Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Central Bank of Brazil and the National Treasury Secretary (STN). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of...
A short guide to Brazilian macro data
**Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Brazil? There are more than 400 datasets for Brazil (See for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Brazil, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Brazil Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Brazil Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Central Bank of Brazil and the National Treasury Secretary (STN). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of...
Alphacast Highlight - Peru: Activity contracts 1.3% in March
Want to connect inflation data to Excel? Click here. Peru monthly GDP estimate, produced by INEI, showed a 1.3 % contraction during March. It is the second contraction in a row (-0.3% in February), indicating that the Peruvian economy is showing signs of stagnation due to the worsening condition on the external sector, in the sense of the Ukranian War and the China economic slowdown, and the higher inflation. Trade contracted 13.7% in March, Fishing, 3.7 % and Oil and Gas Extraction and Mining contracted 2.29 %. Construction and Manufacture grew 4.51% and 0.79 % respectively. Despite the recent slowdown, Peru is one of the countries that registered the highest rates of growth in the last decade (30 %), falling behind only to Colombia. However most of this growth happened before the pandemic. During the pandemic, Peru registered the largest drop of the region and since it's recovery it has been struggling to return to its pre-pandemic growth trend. Related content: - Click here to access the INEI- Monthly GDP...
Brazilian Exchange Rate
by Robin Brooks "We're in the middle of a disorderly rise in long-term US real yields, which is weighing on all EM, including Brazil's Real. The more disorderly this gets, the shorter it will last, because the Fed will be forced to backtrack. So our Brazilian Real $/BRL fair value stays at 4.50." Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - BCB - Exchange...
Real GDP in Latin America
by Robin Brooks Colombia (pink): +36% Peru (green): +34% Chile (red): +27% Mexico (yellow): +13% Argentina (black): +3% Brazil (blue): 0% Related Datasets Activity - Latin America - Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -...
Brazil Activity Index
By BTG Pactual "Brazil: IBC-Br +0.34% in February m/m, below expectations (0.4%), with an upward revision in the previous month (from -1.0% to -0.73%), according to BTG economists. Services Sector -0.2% m/m, below market expectations, and Expanded Retail +2.0%, above expectations." Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - BCB - Gross Domestic...
Mexico's high inflation
by Scotiabank Economics "Mexico’s persistently-high inflation leads us to revise up our forecasts for 2022 and 2023." Related Datasets Inflation - Mexico - INEGI - Consumer Prices - Bi-weekly Inflation - Mexico - INEGI - Consumer Prices - Core and Non-Core...
Back to Normal
by Lisa Abramowicz "U.S. consumers are approaching a cracking point. Savings are falling. Food and energy prices account for an estimated 20% of household outlays. Monthly mortgage payments have risen to more than 20% of incomes: Natixis, RBC data" Related Datasets Activity - USA - BEA - Personal Income and Its Disposition -...
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
by Luis C. M. de Barros "Look at the damage that inflation is doing to North American consumer confidence; It's a matter of time now - plus higher interest rates - for inflation and economic growth to start returning to more normal times UNLESS PUTIN..." Related Datasets Activity - USA - University of Michigan - Consumer Sentiment...
BRL Exchange Rate
by Robin Brooks "Wow! The Brazilian Real USD/BRL exchange rate is back to the 4.91 low of June 2021. Back then, the rally came as markets focused on the big disconnect between sky-high commodity prices and a very weak Real. It's the same now, only super-charged. Our fair value remains $/BRL 4.50..." Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - BCB - Exchange...
Alphacast Debt Sustainability Analysis Tool
Contents: - Introducing a new tool for economic analysis - Example 1: Brazil's debt looks sustainable - Example 2: Peru in need of fiscal adjustment - Methodological appendix Introducing a new tool for economic analysis Alphacast has integrated into it's platform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Tool. Basically, this tool can help you forecast the Debt/GDP ratio of a country, taking into account specific characteristics such as growth, inflation, interest rates on domestic and foreign debt, exchange rate depreciation and primary surplus. The tool also applies shocks to generate a fan-chart style chart so it can account for uncertainty into the forecasts (see the Appendix for more information). It will take literally less than a minute to generate charts just like this one below. Click here for a detailed explanation on how to use our new tool. Read below some examples to illustrate how to use this tool to produce your own analysis. Example 1: Brazil's debt looks sustainable Over the past few years, Brazil has registered consecutive primary deficits and low growth rates. Recently, the government tried to reduce its primary deficit, so they could put public debt on a sustainable path again. Interesting to note, Brazil has a...
How to use Alphacast's DSA Tool
This is a quick, step by step, guide on how to implement a DSA using Alphacast's pipelines. First, you need to open the pipeline tool. Select the repository you want the pipeline to be in and give a name to your pipeline. After that just click on "Create". Then, you have to select your input dataset. This dataset must contain the historical annual data for the following variables: real GDP growth, the variation of the GDP deflator, the Debt/GDP ratio, the exchange rate devaluation of the exchange rate between the local currency and the US Dollar, the implicit interest rate of the domestic Public Debt, the implicit interest rate of the foreign Public Debt and the ratio of the foreign Public Debt and the total Public Debt. If you are interested in analyzing LAC countries, you can use the same dataset used in our example. Check its contents here. Just type the dataset, select it, and save the first step. On the next step, you need to select the option "Debt Sustainability Analysis". After selecting the country you want to analyze (this will be based on your dataset), you must define the baseline forecasts. This can be based on your...
Colombia's Deficit and Peru's Inflation
Scotiabank Economics " 🇨🇴 #Colombia’s current account deficit increases to widest level since 2015; 🇵🇪#Peru’s persistent inflation problem presages rate hikes. " Related Dataset BOP - Colombia - BANREP - Balance of Payments Inflation - Peru - INEI - Consumer Price Index - Lima - 2009 = 100 -...
Peru Public Investment
by Juan Carlos Odar "In seasonally adjusted terms, public investment has been picking up in recent months, but: i. It has not yet recovered the levels of the last few months before the pandemic. ii. The average of the last twelve months is slightly down." Related Datasets Fiscal - Peru - MEF - General Government...
Personal Consumption Chained Index
by Lisa Abramowics "One of the Fed's favorite inflation metrics, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures deflator, rose to a new post-1982 high of 6.1% year over year in January." Related Datasets Inflation - USA - BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price...
Saving Rate and Consumer Sentiment
by Sven Henrich "Consumer confidence at recession levels, personal savings rate collapsing. Let's raise rates 9 times. Come on, be real." Related Datasets Activity - USA - BEA Stats - National...
Bitcoin Value
Holger Zschaepitz "#Bitcoin jumps almost 10% as Russia bans Russian residents from transferring FX abroad." Related Datasets Financial - Global - Currency -...
LATAM Covid-19 Trend
by Scotiabank Economics "Fighting the January “Flues”. Omicron introduces new uncertainties to the economic outlook. " Related Datasets Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...
Colombia Expectations
by Scotiabank Economics "Colombia’s Central Bank Survey of Expectations shows hiking cycle is expected to continue in H1-2022; economic Activity sustained improvement in November." Related Datasets Monetary - Colombia - BANREP - Survey of Expectations of Economic...
Nasdaq and USA 10 years rate
by Liz Ann Sonders "NASDAQ’s current correction is just a hair worse than last correction in March 2021; back then, 10y was also rising at a brisk pace, but yield today is about 10bps higher [Past performance is no guarantee of future results]" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Rates - Yield curves [Financial - Global - Equity Indexes - Daily...
Mexico GDP
by Tony Payan "Mexico's economy decelerated fast at the end of 2021. This effectively means that Mr. #lopezobrador's term will be a net loss for Mexico's economy. There will not only have been no growth; the Mexican economy will have shrunk in size over this period. This is tragic." Related Dataset Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Monthly Gross Domestic Product...
Argentina Official and Parallel Exchange Rate
by Sergi Lanau "Argentina's official and parallel exchange rates may soon hit the eye-catching 100,200 level. Does this mean a free ARS market would reach 200? Maybe not. In many of the 27 rate unification episodes we looked at, the official rate didn't depreciate all the way to the parallel." Related Dataset Financial - Argentina - FX premiuns -...
US Food Prices
by Bloomberg Opinion "While moderate inflation is good for grocers, as it bolsters the value of sales, the risk is that more cash-strapped customers trade down to cheaper items and defect to budget rivals" Related Datasets Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City...
USA Trade Balance
By Arazul Research "In the 3rd quarter of the year, exports of goods and services increased 20.9% compared to the same quarter in 2020. In the same period, imports grew 21.2%. The current account balance in the 3rd quarter was -238 billion dollars." Related Datasets BOP - USA - BEA - External...
LATAM's GDP
by Robin Brooks "LatAm cumulative real GDP growth: Q3 '11 - Q3 '21 Peru: +39% Chile: +33% Colombia: +33% Uruguay: +15% Mexico: +14% Ecuador: +13% Brazil: +3% Argentina: -3%" Related Datasets Activity - Peru - INEI - Gross Domestic Product - Supply approach Activity - Chile - INE - Gross Domestic Product - Expenditure approach Activity - Colombia - DANE - Gross Domestic Product - Expenditure approach - Quarterly Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Gross Domestic Product - Quarterly - Supply and Demand (2013 Base) Activity - Brazil - IBGE - GDP - Quarterly Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Gross Domestic Product - Grouped -...
S&P 500 and US 10 years yield
by Robin Brooks "The Achilles heel of any Fed tightening cycle is financial dominance. Real 10-year yield is up from -1.1% end-2021 to -0.7% now, i.e. still very negative (orange). But S&P 500 at one point yesterday was down over 10% year-to-date (white). Does the Fed have the stomach for this?" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Rates - Yield curves Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...
Chile's Persistent Inflation
by Scotiabank Economics "#Latam Daily for Feb. 8: Flag of Chile #Chile’s persistent inflation;" Related Datasets Inflation - Chile - INE - 2009 Consumer Price Index - Spliced Series - 2018 base -...
Brazil's Vehicle Production
by Paulo Gala "Brazil's vehicle production has melted in January" Related Dataset Activity - Brazil - Anfavea - Automotive Production and...
Peru Inflation
by Miguel Cuenca "The World Bank has forecast a 3% growth in Peru, the fastest growing economy in the region." Related Datasets Inflation - Peru - INEI - Consumer Price Index - Lima - 2009 = 100 - Monthly Monetary - Peru - BCRP - Central Bank Interest...
Peru Manufacturing Production
by Banco Central de la Reserva de Perú "In November 2021, Non-primary Manufacturing Production is above its pre-pandemic levels." Related Datasets Activity - Peru - BCRP - Industrial Production...
Mexico Bi-weekly Inflation
by Bloomberg Economics "Mexico’s annual inflation slowed slightly less than expected in early January and remained far above target, leaving the central bank in a tight spot amid indications the economy is in recession" Related Datasets Inflation - Mexico - INEGI - Consumer Prices -...
Brazil Consumer Prices Inflation in January
by Fábio Talhari "Good morning friends! The IPCA-15 is out for the month of January: 0.58%. Markets were projecting something around 0.4 to 0.45%. Even so, it came lower than that of December 2021, which was 0.78%. The trajectory is downward, but with less inclination. Accumulated in 12 months at 10.2%." Related Datasets [Prices - Brazil - IBGE - Consumer Prices...
FED and US yield
by [Holger Zschaepitz ](https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner) "#Fed's Powell doesn't rule out raising rates at every FOMC meeting. Fed has plenty of room to raise rates w/o hurting job market. US 2y yields jump by 5bps." Related Datasets Financial - USA - FRB - Interest Rates - Daily Financial - Global - Rates - Yield...
Mexico's Trade Balance
by Scotiabank Economics "#Mexico’s trade balance in surplus in December but in deficit for 2021 as a whole, with more deficits ahead." Related Datasets BOP - Mexico - Banxico - Trade Balance...
Brazil Mass of Salaries
by André Perfeito "Mass of Salaries (Habitually Received) in Real Terms" Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - IBGE - National Household Sample Survey -...
Mexico and US Real GDP
by Robin Brooks "What's worrying about Mexico's latest GDP data is that they show a return to flatlining growth, which means a return to the status quo pre-COVID. Growth averaged 2.7% per year from 2010-17. It started flatlining in 2018 and COVID, by tightening financial conditions, didn't help." Related Datasets [Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Gross Domestic Product - Quarterly - Supply and Demand (2013 Base) ](https://charts.alphacast.io/datasets/9791) Activity - USA - BEA - Gross Domestic...
USA: Employment Cost Index
by Liz Ann Sonders "Wage story always important when analyzing #inflation … Employment Cost Index rose 1% q/q in 4Q21 (annual change was strong at +4%, highest since early-2000s), but key is to look at productivity; if unit labor costs don’t soar, there should be some downward pressure on inflation" Related Datasets Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment Cost...
Brazil: Industrial Production Index
by Paulo Gala "Industry surprises and grows 2.9 % in December" Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - IBGE - Industrial Production...
Covid Fatalities
by Liz Ann Sonders "New #COVID fatalities haven’t rolled over yet in U.S., but may have peaked in South Africa .... UK moving sideways and European Union seeing slight increase " Related Datasets Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...
Brazil: SELIC Interest Rate and Inflation
by Rafaela Vitoria "Copom says that the next increase will depend on the evolution of the scenario. What can make the high be less than 100 and be the last one: weaker activity exchange better than expected (Focus still R$5.60) falling energy cost (better hydrology) tax with positive surprises" Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - COPOM - SELIC Interest Rate Target Prices - Brazil - IBGE - Consumer...
US Private Consumption
by Robin Brooks "We're fighting the last war. Incomplete recovery after 2008 meant COVID policy stimulus was massive. So this time is different & we're overheating. is right to cry foul in this piece, which also sets a new record for number of charts (3) in a single article. " Related Datasets Activity - USA - BEA - Gross Domestic...
USA 10 years yield
by Lisa Abramowicz "Yields on 10-year Treasuries have climbed to the highest since January 2020." Related Datasets Financial - Global - Rates - Yield...
Mexico's Investment Volume
by Gabriela Siller Pagaza "Mexico's Gross Fixed Investment, which is necessary to economic growth, is at the same levels of 10 year ago." Related Datasets Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Gross Fixed Investment Volume...
Colombia's Inflation
by Scotiabank Economics " #Colombia’s inflation surges, while #Mexico’s indicators are mixed" Related Datasets Prices - Colombia - Banrep - Inflation and Inflation target Prices - Colombia - Banrep - Consumer Prices Index - Monthly - Core and New...
Eurozone Inflation
by Holger Zschaepitz "Eurozone #inflation hits record high at 4.9% in Nov since records began in 1997." Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators -...
From V-shape to sqr-shape
by André Perfeito "V-shape recovery gains square-root shape. Brazilian Economy stagnates, being distant from its 2014 level." Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - IBGE - GDP -...