Alphcast

@lucascosta93

Joined
July 2021

lucascosta93's insights

  • lucascosta93 published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / Alphacast Data Guides

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Peruvian macro data

    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Peru? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has official statistics from INEI and BCRP. However, this short guide will help you find the our "must-see" datasets. Peru Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Peru Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP), the National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI) and Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finances (MEF). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of the Peruvian Economy, you can monitor...

  • lucascosta93 published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / Alphacast Data Guides

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Peru macro data

    **Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Brazil? There are more than 400 datasets for Brazil (See for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Brazil, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Brazil Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Brazil Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Central Bank of Brazil and the National Treasury Secretary (STN). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of...

  • lucascosta93 published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / Alphacast Data Guides

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Brazilian macro data

    **Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Brazil? There are more than 400 datasets for Brazil (See for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Brazil, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Brazil Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Brazil Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Central Bank of Brazil and the National Treasury Secretary (STN). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Peru: Activity contracts 1.3% in March

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    Want to connect inflation data to Excel? Click here. Peru monthly GDP estimate, produced by INEI, showed a 1.3 % contraction during March. It is the second contraction in a row (-0.3% in February), indicating that the Peruvian economy is showing signs of stagnation due to the worsening condition on the external sector, in the sense of the Ukranian War and the China economic slowdown, and the higher inflation. Trade contracted 13.7% in March, Fishing, 3.7 % and Oil and Gas Extraction and Mining contracted 2.29 %. Construction and Manufacture grew 4.51% and 0.79 % respectively. Despite the recent slowdown, Peru is one of the countries that registered the highest rates of growth in the last decade (30 %), falling behind only to Colombia. However most of this growth happened before the pandemic. During the pandemic, Peru registered the largest drop of the region and since it's recovery it has been struggling to return to its pre-pandemic growth trend. Related content: - Click here to access the INEI- Monthly GDP...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Brazilian Exchange Rate

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    by Robin Brooks "We're in the middle of a disorderly rise in long-term US real yields, which is weighing on all EM, including Brazil's Real. The more disorderly this gets, the shorter it will last, because the Fed will be forced to backtrack. So our Brazilian Real $/BRL fair value stays at 4.50." Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - BCB - Exchange...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Brazil Activity Index

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    By BTG Pactual "Brazil: IBC-Br +0.34% in February m/m, below expectations (0.4%), with an upward revision in the previous month (from -1.0% to -0.73%), according to BTG economists. Services Sector -0.2% m/m, below market expectations, and Expanded Retail +2.0%, above expectations." Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - BCB - Gross Domestic...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Back to Normal

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    by Lisa Abramowicz "U.S. consumers are approaching a cracking point. Savings are falling. Food and energy prices account for an estimated 20% of household outlays. Monthly mortgage payments have risen to more than 20% of incomes: Natixis, RBC data" Related Datasets Activity - USA - BEA - Personal Income and Its Disposition -...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    BRL Exchange Rate

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    by Robin Brooks "Wow! The Brazilian Real USD/BRL exchange rate is back to the 4.91 low of June 2021. Back then, the rally came as markets focused on the big disconnect between sky-high commodity prices and a very weak Real. It's the same now, only super-charged. Our fair value remains $/BRL 4.50..." Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - BCB - Exchange...

  • lucascosta93 published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / DSA Model

     - 2 minutes to read

    How to use Alphacast's DSA Tool

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    This is a quick, step by step, guide on how to implement a DSA using Alphacast's pipelines. First, you need to open the pipeline tool. Select the repository you want the pipeline to be in and give a name to your pipeline. After that just click on "Create". Then, you have to select your input dataset. This dataset must contain the historical annual data for the following variables: real GDP growth, the variation of the GDP deflator, the Debt/GDP ratio, the exchange rate devaluation of the exchange rate between the local currency and the US Dollar, the implicit interest rate of the domestic Public Debt, the implicit interest rate of the foreign Public Debt and the ratio of the foreign Public Debt and the total Public Debt. If you are interested in analyzing LAC countries, you can use the same dataset used in our example. Check its contents here. Just type the dataset, select it, and save the first step. On the next step, you need to select the option "Debt Sustainability Analysis". After selecting the country you want to analyze (this will be based on your dataset), you must define the baseline forecasts. This can be based on your...

  • lucascosta93 published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / DSA Model

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Debt Sustainability Analysis Tool

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    Contents: - Introducing a new tool for economic analysis - Example 1: Brazil's debt looks sustainable - Example 2: Peru in need of fiscal adjustment - Methodological appendix Introducing a new tool for economic analysis Alphacast has integrated into it's platform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Tool. Basically, this tool can help you forecast the Debt/GDP ratio of a country, taking into account specific characteristics such as growth, inflation, interest rates on domestic and foreign debt, exchange rate depreciation and primary surplus. The tool also applies shocks to generate a fan-chart style chart so it can account for uncertainty into the forecasts (see the Appendix for more information). It will take literally less than a minute to generate charts just like this one below. Click here for a detailed explanation on how to use our new tool. Read below some examples to illustrate how to use this tool to produce your own analysis. Example 1: Brazil's debt looks sustainable Over the past few years, Brazil has registered consecutive primary deficits and low growth rates. Recently, the government tried to reduce its primary deficit, so they could put public debt on a sustainable path again. Interesting to note, Brazil has a...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Staff Picks

     - 1 minute to read

    LATAM GDP

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    by Robin Brooks "LatAm real GDP growth: Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 Chile (red): +10.1% Colombia (pink): +8.0% Argentina (black): +5.0% Peru (dots): +2.1% Brazil (blue): +1.1% Mexico (orange): -2.5%" Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Monthly Gross Domestic Product Estimate (EMAE) - Monthly_Long Activity - Brazil - BCB - Gross Domestic Product Activity - Chile - BCCh - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Colombia - DANE - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Monthly Gross Domestic Product...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Brazillian Currency

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    by Robin Brooks "Since COVID began, the closest we got to our Brazil fair value was on Jun 24, 2021, when $/BRL fell to 4.90, i.e. within 10% of our 4.50 fair value. But then excessive pessimism took over, which is now finally fading. Brazil's Real remains by far the most undervalued EM currency." Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - BCB - Exchange...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    USA Covid-19 Cases

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    by Ian Miller "In December, a doctor from Johns Hopkins tweeted that life in the US in January-February would be “almost unrecognizable,” “when we call 911 & no one comes, when we literally cannot enter the enter the ER for crowds” Cases peaked two weeks later and are down 81% since Nailed it" Related Datasets Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Discontinued

     - 1 minute to read

    UK's Inflation

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    by Mohamed A. El-Erian "Good morning. #UK inflation data are out: Per the @FT chart, consumer prices in January rose at an annual rate of 5.5%, slightly above the 5.4% that was both the median forecast and last month measure. Core CPI #inflation was 4.4%, up from the prior 4.2% and just above consensus." Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators -...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    SPX and Michigan Sentiment Index

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    by Holger Zschaepitz "Mind the gap: US Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 have diverged. The problem: 50% of US people surveyed in Feb said that they expect their standard of living to go down b/c of inflation. Fed has to fight these expectations & can no longer support stock markets. End of the Fed put?" Related Datasets Activity - USA - University of Michigan - Consumer Sentiment Index desagregated Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    LATAM's GDP

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    by Robin Brooks "LatAm cumulative real GDP growth: Q3 '11 - Q3 '21 Peru: +39% Chile: +33% Colombia: +33% Uruguay: +15% Mexico: +14% Ecuador: +13% Brazil: +3% Argentina: -3%" Related Datasets Activity - Peru - INEI - Gross Domestic Product - Supply approach Activity - Chile - INE - Gross Domestic Product - Expenditure approach Activity - Colombia - DANE - Gross Domestic Product - Expenditure approach - Quarterly Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Gross Domestic Product - Quarterly - Supply and Demand (2013 Base) Activity - Brazil - IBGE - GDP - Quarterly Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Gross Domestic Product - Grouped -...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Brazil: SELIC Interest Rate and Inflation

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    by Rafaela Vitoria "Copom says that the next increase will depend on the evolution of the scenario. What can make the high be less than 100 and be the last one: weaker activity exchange better than expected (Focus still R$5.60) falling energy cost (better hydrology) tax with positive surprises" Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - COPOM - SELIC Interest Rate Target Prices - Brazil - IBGE - Consumer...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    USA: Employment Cost Index

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    by Liz Ann Sonders "Wage story always important when analyzing #inflation … Employment Cost Index rose 1% q/q in 4Q21 (annual change was strong at +4%, highest since early-2000s), but key is to look at productivity; if unit labor costs don’t soar, there should be some downward pressure on inflation" Related Datasets Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment Cost...

  • lucascosta93 published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Mexico and US Real GDP

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    by Robin Brooks "What's worrying about Mexico's latest GDP data is that they show a return to flatlining growth, which means a return to the status quo pre-COVID. Growth averaged 2.7% per year from 2010-17. It started flatlining in 2018 and COVID, by tightening financial conditions, didn't help." Related Datasets [Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Gross Domestic Product - Quarterly - Supply and Demand (2013 Base) ](https://charts.alphacast.io/datasets/9791) Activity - USA - BEA - Gross Domestic...