@marianosanchez
Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Former operations analyst. I’m keen on capital markets, finance and R.
@marianosanchez
Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Former operations analyst. I’m keen on capital markets, finance and R.
marianosanchez's insights
Spain's inflation is the highest since May 1985
by elEconomista.es "🔥🔎 Spain's inflation rate is at historically high levels https://eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11739326/04/22/La-inflacion-empieza-a-perder-fuerza-el-IPC-se-situa-en-el-84-tras-la-moderacion-de-la-energia.html" Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators -...
Nasdaq 100 on track for its April since 2008
By Mac10 "The definition of insanity:" Related dataset: Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...
Argentina's Real FX is at its lowest level in 4 years
By Juan Carlos Hallak "We all know that the way out is to increase exports. However, all efforts to achieve this are fading with a falling (real) dollar. In fact, we are at the highest point of exchange rate appreciation of the AF era. How can we explain that the official FX is falling?" Related dataset: Monetary - Argentina - BCRA - Multilateral Real FX...
Stubbornly high imports drive Colombia’s trade deficit
By Scotiabank Economics "#Latam Daily for April 22: Stubbornly high imports drive Colombia’s trade deficit. Full Report: http://ms.spr.ly/6016wASaK #EmergingMarkets" Related dataset: BOP - Colombia - DANE - External...
Argentina: Economic subsidies report scandalous figures
By Gabriel Caamaño "The evolution of economic subsidies during Q1 2022 is scandalous however you look at it (+125% YoY), but I think it will be much more brutally appreciated this way. The mess they've made there. Segmentation, besides being counterproductive, is going to be aspirin." Related dataset: Fiscal - Argentina - MECON - IMIG -...
El Salvador is misperforming Latam regarding risk premiums
By Álvaro Trigueros A. "🧵 short. EMBI El Salvador reached a new record high on April 14, 2022, 19.91. The risk perception of Salvadoran debt has been deteriorating sharply since May 1st. While the Latin American average reflects stability. ..." Related dataset: Financial - Latin America - EMBI -...
Argentina's inflation: The worse Q1 in 30 years
By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "If #inflation in March is 6.5%, it would close at 15.6% (80% annualized) during Q1-2022. Since '43 (excluding the period from '76 to '91), only 3 years have had worse YTD starts ('45, '59 and '73). Current levels are very similar to Q1-1975, the quarter before the Rodrigazo (85% annualized)." Related dataset [Inflation - Latin America - Alphacast - Consumer Price Index - Headline - Monthly...
On domestic credit to private sector
By Argentina en Datos "The GDP ratio that Argentina allocates to domestic credit to private sector is among the lowest around the globe. Chart: @CEU_UIA" Monetary - Global - World Bank - Domestic Credit to Private...
The AGG records the worst YTD drawdown ever
By Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth "5/11 The bond market gets it. The carnage is epic. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, which started in 1990, is down 7.77% YTD. Not only is this the worst drawdown for a year through early April, but it is also surpassing the largest drawdown seen in any complete year." Financial - Global - YF - Bond ETFs -...
Inflation at 30-year high in OECD countries
By Financial Times "Inflation in rich countries surged to a 30-year high in February as higher energy and food prices hit consumers, according to new figures, which don’t yet reflect the impact of the war in Ukraine https://on.ft.com/3LJ3QJe" Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators -...
Carry Trade: The Return of the King
By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "The carry trade is back, long live the carry trade. Throughout Treasury's auctions we might see that when the rates in pesos were positive after hedging through FX futures (ergo investing in ARS yields USD gains) the FX faced less devaluation pressures. During the lasy weeks, the carry trade helped to “calm down” the dollar, which appreciated by 22% from the peak of ARS 244 at the end of last January. Will this FX peace last? The rate hiking by BCRA turned the spotlight on carry trade strategies, but it is currently offset by both rising futures’ prices and an accelerating inflation. Besides, there is an additional variable that could push-up the depreciation pace of the peso: the BCS’s cost, which is at a 15-month low. That said, it could encourage investors to take advantage of the state of affairs and to wire their USD abroad." Related dataset Financial - Argentina - Carry...
German prices rose to record high since the reunification
By Patrick Hansen "40-year CPI inflation high in Germany. Highest ever since the German reunification. Mainly fueled by sharp price increases for energy products. https://reuters.com/world/europe/german-inflation-rises-more-than-expected-march-2022-03-30/ #bitcoin #btc" Related Datasets Prices - Germany - Bundesbank - Consumer Price...
USA inflation expectations are on the rise
By Bloomberg Economics "In times of uncertainty, people often reach for historical analogies. In recent weeks and months, as inflation has continued to climb and commodity prices spike, there's been a lot of talk of a return to the 1970s. But is that the right parallel?" Related Datasets Financial - USA - FRB - Interest Rates -...
The Japanese yen's free-falling
By Charlie Bilello "Japanese Yen ETF hits a new all-time low, down 42% from its peak in 2011. $FXY Charting via Related dataset Financial - Global - YF - Main...
The yen dropped to a seven-year low
By The Market Ear "It looks like a small cap, but it ain't...the world's third biggest currency..." Financial - Global - BIS - Main...
Argentina: On IMF-related interest
By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "Argentina has asked for the IMF to assist it through an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to pay the previous Stand By Agreement (SBA, signed in 2018). As stated by the Fund in EFF's factsheet the interest burden is the base rate (1.2%) plus a surcharge, which depends on how much is requested and for how long. For large credits (above of 187.5% of each country's quota in the IMF), the surcharge is 2%. If after 51 months the residual loan is still above 187%, the surcharge rises to 3%. That said, the Argentina's EFF represents over 1000% of its quota: for a long time, our country will pay at least 3.2% per year. Taking into account that, the outstanding capital payments of the SBA is meant to be paid with the upcoming EFF credits, both loans' interest must be paid as well. On Jun-26, 51 months after the first EFF disbursements, the rate rises to 4.2%. Meaning? On USD 44bn, for over 12 years, Argentina will have to face interest rates between 3.2% and 4.2%." Related dataset Fiscal - Argentina - Public Debt Profile...
US Initial Jobless Claims lowest since 1969
By Rob Hager "U.S. Initial Jobless Claims SA - @SoberLook" Activity - USA - BLS - Labour Market stats -...
Hong Kong is now the centre of the pandemic
By The Economist "Once famed for its low covid-19 count, Hong Kong is now recording the world’s highest death rate from covid-19" Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...
Growth's underperformance against value
By The Artist Formerly Known As Klendathu Capitalist "$ARKK 52 today." Related Datasets Global - NYSE - YF - Berkshire Hathaway vs ARK...
FMI: perfil e intereses
Sin tocar metas ni implicancias macroeconómicas del acuerdo FMI-Argentina, (y si se aprueba en el congreso tal cual está), consiste en: No se trata de una reestructuración en si misma: sino que el nuevo préstamo es un Servicio Ampliado (Extended Fund Facility -EFF- en ingles), con el cual se pagará el actual préstamo que tiene la Argentina con el Fondo (Stand-By -SB- firmado en 2018). Es como pagar el resumen de una tarjeta de crédito con otra tarjeta (?). Ambos préstamos, rep: sino q Se despejan los pagos de capital que en el SB se concentraban mayormente en 2022 y 2023 (USD 16.7bn y USD 18.5bn), aplazándose en mayores plazos (se pagan durante 9 años) y menores pagos anuales (USD 6.7bn en promedio durante 6 de esos 9 años) Por lo tanto, los intereses de ambos prestamos se devengan de igual manera: Como cometa el proyecto de ley enviado al Congreso, el préstamo SB implicó una tasa de interés de 1% anual (más sobrecargos). Sin embargo, el factsheet del nuevo EFF establece que la tasa de interesés...
Store of Value: Gold vs Bitcoin
By The Market Ear "and it doesn't use any electricity to store THE value..." Related Datasets Financial - Global - Currency - Daily Financial - Global - Commodities -...
US: Rising inflation expectations
By Win Smart, CFA "10 year breakevens @thedailyshot" Related Datasets Financial - USA - FRB - Interest Rates -...
Chile: CPI relieves markets as copper reversals
By Diario Financiero "Update | The price of the #cobre fell 5,21% after the strong volatility recorded yesterday" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Commodities - Daily Inflation - Chile - INE - 2009 Consumer Price Index - Spliced Series - 2018 base -...
MSCI Russia ETF's sell-off
By Charlie Bilello "The MSCI Russia ETF fell 33% today, the largest decline in its history. This was a 16-sigma event - which means that it should not have happened even once in the history of the universe (assuming a normal distribution, which markets do not follow). $ERUS" Related Datasets Financial - Global - MSCI...
Bond & Equity Volatility
By jeroen blokland "#Volatility is extreme across all asset classes. You can end up on the wrong side of the market instantly. Citi closing its short #oil bet (ht @JavierBlas), and the 7% intra-day #NASDAQ move last week are good examples. Trade less, stay flexible, don't try to hit the bottom." Related Datasets Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...
FX Rates: Colombian vs Norwegian Performance
By Felipe Campos "Why would the dollar drop after the elections? Because in the countries where it depends on the same fundamentals it has already gone down. This is not a prediction, it is a fact based on the fact that the country continues to be an oil producer. From 2007 to 2020 the Colombian and Norwegian FX rates have been identical" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Currency -...
Russian equities fell the most on record
by The Market Ear "IMOEX -45%.... deep value?" Related dataset: Financial - Russia - Equity Index -...
USA: The 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
by (((The Daily Shot))) "The Treasury curve keeps getting flatter amid concerns about economic growth. The 10yr – 2yr Treasury spread hit 35 basis points for the first time since the COVID crash." #UnitedStates Related Datasets Financial - USA - FRB - Interest Rates -...
Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio
by Finanzas Argy "🔴Bitcoin: due to the crisis in Ukraine, the market does not regard it as a hedging asset and analysts expect it may drop to USD 30,000 🔹Investors prefer to hedge in traditional assets such as gold 🔹The bitcoin-gold ratio is at its lowest level since mid-2021" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Currency - Daily Financial - Global - Commodities -...
Inflation rates across G20
by QR Capital "Inflation in G20: 🇯🇵: 0,8% 🇸🇦: 1,2% 🇨🇳: 1,5% 🇨🇭: 1,6% 🇮🇩: 2,1% 🇫🇷: 2,9% 🇦🇺: 3,5% 🇰🇷: 3,6% 🇸🇬: 4,0% 🇨🇦: 4,8% 🇮🇹: 4,8% 🇩🇪: 4,9% 🇪🇺: 5,1% 🇬🇧: 5,4% 🇿🇦: 5,9% 🇪🇸: 6,0% 🇮🇳: 6,0% 🇳🇱: 6,3% 🇲🇽: 7,0% 🇺🇸: 7,5% 🇷🇺: 8,7% 🇧🇷: 10,3% 🇹🇷: 48,6% 🇦🇷: 50,9%" Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators -...
Unemployment rates across Europe
by Adam Tooze "Europe made a bet to maintain jobs, on the expectation that businesses could recover their previous activity, and for most companies, in almost all sectors, that’s what has happened.” Short-time working was the right way to go! https://ft.com/content/4453e5ac-3490-4726-8caf-794440dc7183" Related Datasets Labour & Income - European Union - Eurostat - Labour Market - Unemployment...
Oil prices hit their highest in eight years
by Bloomberg Markets "Oil surges at the start of the week as the possibility of war in Ukraine fanned demand, with the U.S. benchmark nearing $95 a barrel https://trib.al/qxwo4cT" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Commodities -...
University of Michigan - Consumer Sentiment
by AD "Confidence" Related Datasets Activity - USA - University of Michigan - Consumer Sentiment Index...
USA: Prices on fire
by Fari Hamzei "Hot Inflation Data Risk Pushing Fed Closer to a Super-Sized Hike" Related Datasets Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City...
BCOM: Commodities perform
by Efficient Market Hype "Bloomberg Commodity Index" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Bloomberg Commodity Index...
US2Y vs FED Funds Rate
by Tom McClellan "2-year T-Note yield versus Fed Funds target. For segment at https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1kvJpApvweQxE/peek" Related Dataset Financial - USA - FRB - Interest Rates -...
Developed countries: Deaths during the Omicron wave
by Tom Keene "first read: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/01/science/covid-deaths-united-states.html Related Dataset Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...
Net IIRR vs FX Premium
by Julián Yosovitch "There is a very close relationship between reserves and the FX premium If you want to improve one, you must improve the other. They go hand in hand Closing the FX premium is essential to stock up II.RR Related Dataset Financial - Argentina - FX premiums - Daily Monetary - Argentina - International Reserves -...
UVA loans and Patrimonial gains
by iProfesional "UVA loans: why does Lucas Llach say it was "a good deal"?" Related Dataset Prices - Argentina - BCRA - Price Update...
Covid-19 - Test Positive Rate
by Scotiabank Economics "#Latam Charts Weekly (January 27): All eyes are on the omicron variant and its effects on activity and inflation. Full Report: https://scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.latam-charts-weekly.latam-charts-weekly--january-27--2022-.html #EmergingMarkets" Related Dataset Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...
Soybean keeps on rallying
by Julián Yosovitch "the Peronist soybean keeps on rallying It is traded at 1525 cents bushel, its highest value since May 2021 Very close to its all-time high of US$1,790 cb. It performes at 50% above the figures of the Macri era and 220% higher than De la Rua's Administration" Related Dataset Financial - Global - Commodities -...
USA: Consumer Sentiment Index
by Julien Bittel, CFA "🇺🇸 Consumer sentiment update. Another month, another new cycle low for UMich Current Conditions… -72.0 vs. Exp. 73.2 (Prior 73.2) Lowest print since August 2011." Related Dataset Activity - USA - University of Michigan - Consumer Sentiment Index...
Stronger dollar: DXY is rising
by R.J. "DXY soared. It went over 97. Making an impact on metals and currencies" Related Dataset Financial - Global - Currency - Daily...
Argentine ADRs' financial sector:
by Osvaldo "Beto" Mendeleiev "Banks 🇦🇷 since PASO 2019. Still at the bottom of the ocean." Related Dataset Global - NASDAQ - Argentine...
WTI is running hot
by James Picerno "Running hot: US crude oil benchmark (WTI) is trading at/near the highest level since 2014 at just under $88/bbl. Just in time for Powell's Q&A in a few hours:" Related Dataset Financial - Global - Commodities -...
January on pace to be the NASDAQ's worst month since Oct-08
by LiveSquawk "Stocks Mount Stunning Comeback On Monday With Dow Closing In The Green After Earlier 1,000-Point Loss - CNBC" Related Datasets Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...
NASDAQ Composite is looking for a floor
by BNN Bloomberg "The volatility that’s gripped financial markets this year tightened its hold on American stocks, with a late-session plunge sending the Nasdaq 100 Index into a correction." Related Datasets Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...
Cryptos and Indexes' performance since pre-pandemic levels
by Galen Moore "Just to put things into perspective a little, today, here is a chart showing BTC & ETH alongside growth stock indexes since pre-pandemic." Related Datasets Financial - Criptocurrencies - Prices and volume Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...
2021's inflation across G20
by QR Capital "Inflation in the G20 (Last 12m) 🇯🇵: 0,6% 🇸🇦: 1,2% 🇨🇳: 1,5% 🇨🇭: 1,5% 🇮🇩: 1,8% 🇫🇷: 2,8 🇦🇺: 3% 🇰🇷: 3,7% 🇸🇬: 3,8% 🇮🇹: 3,9% 🇨🇦: 4,7% 🇬🇧: 5,1% 🇩🇪: 5,3% 🇮🇳: 5,5% 🇳🇱: 5,7% 🇪🇸: 6,5% 🇺🇸: 7,0% 🇲🇽: 7,3% 🇷🇺: 8,4% 🇧🇷: 10,0% 🇹🇷: 36,0% 🇦🇷: 50,9%" Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators -...
