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Joined
March 2021

Recent insights

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    Seminarios de Economia Agricola, Recursos Naturales y Agronegocios

    Monitor de datos del agro

    ¿Qué es y para qué sirve Alphacast?


    El Análisis económico como un proceso…

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    … que lleva tiempo (y puede desmotivar)

    • Los datos surgen de muchas fuentes y vienen con formatos muy variados.
    • Se pierde mucho tiempo en
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    SEIDO Flash Macro Update: 2022’s Budget Bill


    The government presented next year's budget bill at the last moment. During yesterday's late hours the government finally unveiled the budget bill, containing an outline of 2022's fiscal policy but also basic 2021-22 macro forecasts. A breakdown of the basic macro variables can be read in the table:

    summary.png

    **A quick

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    SEIDO's September Macro Update: After the (political) shock

    Our view keeps holding up

    Activity decreased in July and early data points to stability in August. Private activity estimates (OJF) show erratic movement, with a decrease of 1.8% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in July mostly due to a decline of industrial production. August early data signals minimal increase/stability of activity.

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    Ciclo de Webinars Alphacast

    ¿Qué es y para qué sirve Alphacast? ¿Cómo puedo aprovecharlo en mi clase?


    El Análisis económico como un proceso…

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    … que lleva tiempo (y puede desmotivar)

    • Los datos surgen de muchas fuentes y vienen con formatos muy variados.
    • Se pierde mucho tiempo en “limpiar” la información.
    • Experimentar
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    La RP con prima de riesgo


    Revisando el criterio de solvencia

    Solvencia: acreedores esperan que el sector público realice pagos futuros con un valor presente (al menos) igual al stock de deuda. Credibilidad es clave.

    La Restricción Presupuestaria intertemporal del gobierno consolidado es:

    PV[PS(𝑡)+M(t);𝑅𝑆(t)]D(0)PV[PS^′(𝑡) + ∆M(t) ; 𝑅_𝑆^∗(t)] ≥ D(0)

    Se trata de una evaluación actual

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    SEIDO's August Macro Update: Second semester… and beyond

    The impact of COVID's second wave on activity was milder than expected and, though we can not yet speak about growth, what has transpired so far is enough for us to revise our 2021 growth forecast to 6.8% (up from the previous 5%). Also, inflation is finally slowing down and **August’s

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    Alphacast: Charla de Coyuntura / Webinar

    Antes de arrancar: ¿Quiénes somos y qué hacemos?

    Soy Matías Carugati, formo parte del equipo de Luciano Cohan en Seido y Alphacast. Parecen lo mismo pero no lo son! Hoy vengo a hablar de macro (Seido), pero apoyándome en la flexibilidad de la plataforma (Alphacast).

    Alphacast es una plataforma de trabajo colaborativo

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    SEIDO Flash Report: Inflation was 3.2% in June

    Monthly inflation remained almost stable. Official statistics reported a 3.2% MoM increase of consumer prices in June (vs 3.3% MoM in May), the same rate estimated by our high-frequency CPI (see here) and private forecasts (see latest BCRA survey here). Inflation remains high despite price controls and agreements, low incidence of

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    Macro Update

    Activity high-frequency information (both early data and broad estimates) point to the economy losing steam even before the second-wave restrictions took place.

    Inflation surprised in May, though we consider it is more a fleeting surprise rather than the beginning of a significant slowdown.

    Fiscal accounts are performing better than expected. However, it should be noted that real,

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    Argentina's Steel Production: Stalling

    After nose-diving due to last year's lockdown, steel production recovered quickly. Production surpassed pre-pandemic levels by November and even continued increasing, in line with overall activity dynamics. However, 2021 has shown a different track record. Seasonally adjusted data shows that steel production has been decreasing since January (-4.3% MoM in April), explained mostly by lower

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    BCRA is reducing its USD futures short position

    Depreciation expectations have decreased substantially in recent months, allowing Argentina's central bank to reduce its USD futures short position to USD 963mn in April (down from USD 5.7bn in last October). The forex market has relieved some pressure compared to H2-20, allowing the BCRA to increase its stock of net reserves.

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    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1.1% WoW

    Weekly inflation accelerates. Consumer prices increased 1.1% WoW (vs previous 0.7% WoW -revised-), while the monthly printing was of 4.2% MoM (from previous 3.9% MoM). Meanwhile, the interannual inflation increased to 52.9% YoY (vs 52.3% YoY).

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    SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1.1% WoW

    Weekly inflation accelerates. Consumer prices increased 1.1% WoW (vs previous 0.7% WoW -revised-), while the monthly printing was of 4.2% MoM (from previous 3.9% MoM). Meanwhile, the interannual inflation increased to 52.9% YoY (vs 52.3% YoY).

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    SEIDO Flash Survey: Argentina's COVID-19, Economic and Political Perception Report

    We present the results of our new COVID-19 Flash Survey, conducted in Argentina between May 10th and 17th, with 2.302 respondents.

    Argentina's Economic and Political Perception:

    • Fernández's net image (-10%) worsened by -6pp. President's net image has been negative since late January.
    • Larreta's net image (15%)
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    SEIDO Macro Update: The second wave is here


    Activity has almost moved back to pre-pandemic levels in Q1. Official data reports activity decreased -0.2% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in March and increased 2.3% QoQ in Q1. This puts the economy just 1.9% below the early 2020’s level. Alternative (earlier) estimates (OJF) already pointed in a similar direction, with Q1