gra consultora


Specialists in economic analysis, decision making, and scenario evaluation

August 2021

GRA is an economics consultancy that provides advice on macroeconomics and financial markets.

Economics analysis

Presentations and daily and weekly reports on the Argentine economic situation and international context. Specific studies on economics and finance.

Decision making

Specific consultations for decision-making. Presentations in the company or via webinar or conference calls.

Scenario evaluation

Detailed long-term projections and alternative scenarios for the formulation of plans and budgets

gra-consultora's insights

  • Subsidies in 2022 and tariff adjustment


    by Gabriel Rubinstein Director de GRA Consultora One of the main topics to be discussed with the IMF, if an arrangement is to be signed, will be the magnitude of a fiscal adjustment. Within this adjustment, we estimate that one of the most conflictive issues will be the level of energy subsidies. To contextualize, Minister Guzmán tried this year to maintain the level of subsidies at 1.7% GDP (2020's level). He announced that goal in an interview with CNN. If he had wanted subsidies to remain at 1.7% GDP, in 2021 he would have had to spend ARS 360 billion less than the ARS 1.1 trillion that the item will end up costing. To put things differently, subsidies spending should have increased 52% YoY and not 132% YoY, as we estimate will happen. To save those ARS 360 billion in subsidies spending, Guzmán should have increased energy rates by 78% throughout the year. With such an increase, subsidies spending would have remained at 1.7% GDP and demand would have paid an average of 58% of the energy price, instead of the 36% that it will end up paying in 2021 (against 54% paid in 2020 and 64 % in 2019)....