Francisco Fernandez


March 2023

franciscofernandez's insights

  • # Hands-On: Calculating South America's population growth with Alphacast


    By Francisco Fernandez Read more Alphacast Highlights here South America - Demographics Alphacast allows you to unlock the details of South America's demographics with ease. Uncover essential data and showcase trends through captivating charts, including insights into the region's most populous countries and those experiencing rapid population growth.. Data is from World Bank. But that's not all. The World Bank data only shows you how population growth evolved in Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole. But not specifically in South America. That's not a problem because with Alphacast you can compile the data in a few steps by building South America's population growth. Let's calculate South America's population growth with Alphacast Step 1: Our starting point is Demographics - Global - World Bank - Demographics. Up to here, just press on Select columns and choose South American countries and the variables "Population, total" and "Population growth (annual %). Finally use the Transform Data option, that will direct you to create a pipeline. Countries: Variables: Step 2: For the following calculations, it is necessary that each column represents a different country, so the Long to Wide option should be used. In the entity to convert just select "Country" and...

  • Hands On: How to use Alphacast to monitor SMEs financing?


    By Francisco Fernandez More Alphacast Highlights available at this link The Argentine economy has a significant part of its production, employment, and consumption destined to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). To understand their economic and financial situation, especially considering the scarcity of relevant high frequency official statistics, it is possible to use data on their financing. For this special segment of the economy, ECHEQs are fundamental - and Alphacast has a real-time updated Stock Market dataset of them, discriminating by maturity, asset type, and currency. The complexity of the dataset, in addition to the amount of data and variables available, makes it crucial to know how to process and analyze them. Therefore, in this hands-on guide, we will show how to filter the data, transform them, and present them graphically for their best use. For this, we will use the Alphacast pipeline engine to transform and plot data from guaranteed ECHEQs. Since the source is available in our database, the information is updated regularly and automatically, as soon as it is made public - both in the original dataset and in all uses. Step by step First, we start by creating a pipeline. This is simple: select "create new", then...

  • Exploring Mexico's Money Market Interest Rate with Alphacast


    By Francisco Fernández Access Money Market Interest Rate data here With Alphacast you can monitor accurately and in real time the interest rates of the money market in Mexico. A key information when analyzing the Mexican financial market. Our data comes from Banxico, guaranteeing accurate and reliable information for financial decisions. Real rates In Alphacast charts are automatically updated. You will be able to clearly and visualize the evolution of interest rates in real-time. In addition, Alphacast allows you to use several datasets at the same time and customize the variables as you wish. For example, you can get the real money market rate and have a complete overview of the financial context. We suggest you to give a quick read to how to calculate variables and a full list of all fuctions. Read more Alphacast Dashboards...

  • Exploring Argentina's Gasoline Prices with Alphacast


    By Francisco Fernández Access Gasoline Prices data here Want to stay informed about gasoline price fluctuations in Argentina? Then you're in the right place! AlphaCast gives daily access to accurate and reliable data from the Secretary of Energy, which allows monitoring the value of gasoline with high frequency. Let's see what happened lately Do you know that the price of gasoline can reveal clues about government strategies? When the real price lags, it may mean that the government is seeking to increase the population's purchasing power. Alternatively, if the real price rises, it is likely that the government is adjusting its accounts and correcting relative prices. So if you really want to stay informed about Argentina's macroeconomy policy you can't miss this data source. The price of fuels has shown a declining trend throughout the presidency of Alberto Fernández, with a certain deepening during the last months. The real prices of Regular Gasoline and Premium Gasoline are approximately 25% below the values registered in December 2019. Measured at the financial FX, the liter of Regular Gasoline went from an average value of USD 1.1 during 2016/2019 to USD 0.5 in the last time. The reduction of Premium Gasoline was from...

  • Tourism Mexico


    By Francisco Fernández Tourist arrivals to Mexico have experienced an astonishing increase after the COVID-19 pandemic. Nowadays around 33 million tourists visit Mexico each year and the government is expecting to reach nearly 40 million people throughout 2023, an unprecedented level. The country's diverse and captivating attractions, such as its rich cultural patrimony, impressive natural landscapes, and world-renowned gastronomy, attract travelers from all over the world. As a result, Mexico has become a top choice for domestic and international tourists, reaping the benefits of a booming tourism industry and contributing to its economic growth and development. Tourism plays a crucial role in Mexico's economy. The recent increase in tourist arrivals has significantly strengthened the country's foreign exchange inflow and driven job creation. Thus, the share of the activity Temporary accommodation and food and beverage production in the total GDP follows an upward trend after the pandemic: in 2022 it reached a figure of 2.2%, but still lower than its 1993/1994 peak. In particular, the sale of services to foreign tourists has reached historic highs. In addition, there has been a notable increase in domestic tourism, with higher domestic tourism consumption by Mexican residents. The combined effect of increased foreign and...

  • Trade Balance: Mexico and US


    Not only does the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States has experienced a significant increase in value but in volume as well. Thus, the foreign commerce with the U.S. is one of the most important factors in Mexico's economy and a fundamental tool for its economic growth. Also, during the first months of 2023 the trade balance with the U.S. continued to show a positive trend. The U.S. is a major player in Mexican foreign trade: its share in Mexico's external sales was 81.8% in 2022. Meanwhile, the weight of the U.S. in Mexican imports was 43.8%, showing a steady downward trend since during the last ten years, the average weight of the U.S. in Mexican imports has been 46.0%, while in the 2003-2012 period it was 51.7%, and between 1993-2002, 71.5%. The categories most imported by Mexico from the U.S. in 2022 were; Mineral Products (USD 57bn) which includes salt, mineral fuels, oils, minerals, etc.; Machinery (USD 54bn) which comprises nuclear reactors and electronic equipment; Plastics and Rubber (USD 24bn). While the most exported categories were Machinery (USD 172bn) and Transportation (USD 93bn). Transportation includes vehicles, railways, boats and aircraft, among other products. Meanwhile, the main origins...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Fiscal Result March 2023


    The fiscal deficit was ARS 258bn in March 2023. Thus, a deficit of ARS 690bn was accumulated in 1Q 2023 and the IMF target (set at ARS 441.5bn) was exceeded by 56%. Meanwhile, this 1Q fiscal excess already covered 34% of the deficit allowed during Q2. Revenues fell 21% YoY in real terms, recording 5 consecutive months of declines. The drop was explained by the awful performance of Export taxes, which fell 84% YoY and 68% vs. Q1 2022. Among the main causes, highlights the early settlement during the Soybean-FX 2 and the incentive to retain grains until the arrival of a new Soybean-FX (implemented just in April). Although primary spending decreased 17% YoY, it was not enough to avoid the weak fiscal outcome. 86% of the spending decline was explained by the drop in Economic subsidies and Social benefits. Subsidies fell 68% in the scenario of the tariff segmentation required by the IMF, while Social benefits fell by 4% due to the lag in their mobility formula and the impact of the inflationary increase. Public work was the only category that went up (+21% YoY). The higher-than-expected fiscal deficit will force the Treasury to rise the rollover rates in...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Mexico March 2023 Macro Brief


    2020 was the worst slump Mexico suffered since the Great Depression, with GDP dropping 8% YoY, and a split recovery between 2021 (4.7% YoY) and 2022 (3.1% YoY). This follows a very weak decade for Mexican growth, with GDP expanding 1.4% on average in the last ten years, but only 0.4% annually since 2018. The economy is still expected to perform weakly, with expectations in the 1-2% annual range for 2023 and 2024 - especially since Mexico's close economic ties to the United States means that any slowdown in the world's largest economy affects it greatly, a major difference from every other large Latin American country. Activity 2023 begins with improved outcomes. The Monthly GDP Estimate showed an increase in January 2023, with annual growth of 4.4% YoY (versus 2.6% YoY in December 2022) and 0.9% MoM (vs 0.1% MoM). Most sectors continued growing, led by Retail (8.2% YoY), Services (5.6% YoY), Manufacturing (4.8% YoY) and Construction (3% YoY). However, both Mining and Primary Sector showed negative results (-3.5% YoY and -1.1% YoY respectively), and, more worryingly, the favorable results achieved in December worsened. Growth in 2022 can primarily be explained as a continuing recovery from 2020, and the unimpressive...