Specialized in macroeconomic research, high-frequency inflation tracking, and Latin American public opinion surveys

June 2021

SEIDO offers economic and political advice through four main services

Macro research

A team of professionals monitors the Argentinean economy to provide high-quality macro and financial strategic advice.

High-frequency inflation tracking

With SEIDO's own system, since 2013 they gather and classify dozens of millions of daily prices from online retailers worldwide into our billon price database to estimate High-Frequency Consumer Price indexes.

Social networks analysis

Through SEIDO Strategic Alliance with Kcore Analytics, they use Artificial Intelligence and social network analysis to predict opinions, track trends, and identify influencers from massive real-time online data. They predict election outcomes and forecast behavior across the world.

LAC7 public opinion

With SEIDO's exclusive Data Panel with > 100.000 respondents, they track the main public opinion trends of 7 Latin American Countries: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, Peru, and Mexico. Monthly tracking of consumer and government confidence, the image of political figures, and hot topics.

seido's insights

  • Step-by-Step: How the Coincident Investment Index Was Made


    A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors one the two largest components of GDP, Private Fixed Investment. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. You can see read more about the index (methodology, usefulness, interpretation) here. | Component | Weight | Indicators| | --- | --- | --- | | Construction | 47.2%| Construction Activity, Construction Employment| | Machinery and Equipment| 41.4% | Machinery Production, Capital Goods Imports| | Transportation Equipment| 11.3%| Utility Vehicles Sales, Transportation Imports | Rather than focusing on what the index looks like and what to use it for, this post will focus on how the Alphacast pipelines engine can be used to make it in a completely automated manner. This means that, as soon as the data is uploaded in the Alphacast site, the Index will be updated to reflect it. The first step, then, is identifying the data. As said above, the index is divided into three components, reflected their importance...

  • [SAMPLE] SEIDO High Frequency CPI: Inflation was 1% WoW


    Weekly inflation remained relatively stable, though at high levels. Consumer prices increased 1% WoW (slightly lower than the previous 1.2% WoW -revised-), and its monthly printing was 3.5% MoM (down from previous 3.7% MoM -revised-). Furthermore, the interannual inflation rate was 56.9% YoY (down from previous 57.1% YoY -revised-). Core inflation remained high, seasonal items cooled slightly. Weekly core inflation was 1% WoW (vs previous 1.1% WoW -revised-), and its monthly variation fell to 2.1% MoM (vs previous 2.7% MoM -revised-). Additionally, prices of seasonal items showed an increase of 1.6% WoW (vs previous 2.3% WoW -revised-), and its monthly variation was 8% MoM (vs previous 7.6% MoM -revised-). Lastly, regulated prices increased 0.2% WoW, and their monthly printing rose to 4.4% MoM (vs previous 3.7% MoM). Prices of dollarized items accelerated, and non-dollarized items slowed down. The weekly printing for dollarized items inflation was 1.4% WoW (vs previous 1.2% WoW -revised-), whereas the monthly variation was of 1.7% MoM (vs previous 2% MoM -revised-). Likewise, non-dollarized items inflation fell moderately to 0.5% WoW (vs previous 0.6% WoW -revised-) and the monthly figure was of 4.4% MoM (vs previous 5.4% MoM -revised-). Food and Beverages weekly prices rose at a...

  • [SAMPLE] Output recovers to pre-pandemic level


    Economic activity recovered in August, reaching pre-pandemic levels. Official data reported an increase of 1.1% MoM in July (seasonally adjusted), with interannual comparisons showing the economy up 12.8% YoY. In consequence, output is 0.28% above its pre-pandemic level (January 2020) and remains just 1.9% below early 2019 levels. Data for September is scarce, although several major sectors, such as Construction (per the Construya Index and Cement sales) or Manufacturing (according to electricity demand data) have shown signs of further improvement. Recovery is clearly moving on two tracks. As has been previously noted (see here), the recovery of economic activity has occurred and will continue occurring at two different speeds. Goods-producing activities (Manufacturing, Agriculture, Mining, and Electricity, Gas & Water) are not only above pre-pandemic levels (+5.5% vs January 2020) but are also operating above 2019 capacity as well (+1.25% vs January 2019). Meanwhile, the Services sector (Construction, Retail, Hotels & Restaurants, etc.) has not recovered from the pandemic recession yet (- 1.7% vs 2020), or from the previous recession for that matter (-3.3% vs 2019). The same trends can be seen in employment. The Goods sector was 1.3% above January 2020 levels of employment in July, whereas the Services sector...