Maia Mindel

@MaiaM

Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Following inflation, activity, and trade.

Joined
July 2021

MaiaM's insights

  • Keeping Track of Vehicle Prices

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    Automobiles are a major item for the economy, both because of the weight the industry has on total manufacturing output/employment, and because of their relevance for consumer spending. But data on vehicle prices is not easy to find, and INDEC does not publish a monthly estimate for national vehicle prices. Utilizing both the INDEC Wholesale Price Index (IPIM) and the City of Buenos Aires Consumer Price Index (CBA-CPI), it is possible to keep track of vehicle prices with an Alphacast pipeline. The procedure is simple: after fetching both datasets and merging them, you can take a simple average of their monthly variations (IPIM Vehicle Prices and CBA-CPI Vehicle Purchases), and derive a base Dec-16=100 index that follows both. The final data is available here. Using transformations, you can add other datapoints to the story, such as real vehicle prices, and MoM or YoY changes. It is possible to then see a variety of phenomena. For instance, real vehicle prices decreased strongly between mid-2016 and mid-2018, but increased rapidly after each large devaluation. However, absent large devaluations, prices accelerated without any exchange rate devaluations - in fact, prices grew as much between 2016 and June 2020 as since June 2020. Regardless,...

  • US Labor Market in December

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "Omicron hasn't cooled off the red-hot job market. Openings rose to 10.9 million in December, close to a record." "How hard is it to hire right now? There were only about 60 unemployed workers for every 100 job openings in December, the fewest on record." "4.3 million workers quit their jobs in December (many of them, most likely, to take better-paying jobs elsewhere). That's down slightly, but still close to a record." "Employers laid off or fired fewer than 1.2 million workers. That's the fewest in the 20 years we've been keeping track. (Not that you can see that very clearly on this chart, given the insane distortion from early in the pandemic.)" Related Dataset: Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment &...

  • US Fourth Quarter GDP Growth

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew by 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (6.9% on an annualized basis). That makes 2021 the best full year for growth since 1984." "Real G.D.P. is still below its prepandemic trend, although the acceleration in the fourth quarter helped it catch up. But nominal G.D.P. (not adjusted for inflation) has significantly surpassed its prepandemic trend. So inflation is eating some of the gains in the recovery. "You can see this even more clearly putting the two series together -- nominal G.D.P. has soared above trend, while real G.D.P. is still trying to get back. (Though rebound has been historically strong by either measure.)" "For all of 2021, the economy grew 5.7%, adjusted for inflation. That's the best year of growth since 1984. Measured from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (arguably a better measure of growth during a year), the economy grew 5.5%, also the best since 1984." Related Dataset Activity - USA - BEA - Gross Domestic...

  • US labor market in November

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    By Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) "Employers added 210k jobs in November, which is down sharply from October and way below economists' expectations." "We still have nearly 4 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic, and the gap is even larger if you factor in the growth we would have had absent the pandemic." "But! There was also some very good news in the report, from the separate survey of households. The labor force, which had been stagnant for months, added nearly 600,000 people." "And employment, as measured in the household survey, rose by 1.1 million. The employment rate jumped by a whopping 0.4 percentage points." Related Datasets Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment & Unemployment Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment and Labor Force Participacion...

  • US Inflation and Retail Sales

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "One big factor in inflation: We're still spending way more on stuff than before the pandemic. Retail sales up 1.7% in October, and more than 20% above prepandemic levels (not adjusted for inflation)." "Compare that to restaurant spending, which was flat in October and is basically on its pre-Covid trend line. And restaurant sales have held up better than many in-person services, thanks to takeout." "This isn't just about rising prices, either. Even in inflation-adjusted terms, retail sales are way above their prepandemic trend." Related Dataset Activity - USA - Census Bureau - Retail Sales -...

  • United States: Income, Expenditures, Inflation

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    By Joseph Politano @JosephPolitano "The CPI is currently running well ahead of its pre-COVID 2% growth trend, although it is worth acknowledging that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (which the Federal Reserve targets) has shows significantly lower readings." "The pandemic has driven spending that would have gone to services into additional consumer and durable goods. Supply chains appear strained are operating under unprecedented order volumes. In other words, this is a crisis of abundance rather than a crisis of scarcity." "Today, goods prices tell a different story. Car prices have stalled, with used car and truck prices growing 2.5% after shrinking in August and September. This is partly because rising prices choked demand and partly because vaccinations are enabling additional services spending." "Fundamentally, sustained inflation cannot occur without above-trend income and spending growth. As of right now, both personal incomes and personal spending remain on-trend. As long as nominal income growth remains on-trend inflation will slide back down to normal levels." Related Datasets Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City Average Labour & Income - United States - BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures on Goods and...

  • Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise across Europe

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    By John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch "NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too." Related Dataset Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...

  • US job market in October

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "Big-picture: We're still down about 4.2 million jobs relative to our prepandemic level." "And the gap is even larger if you remember that we were adding jobs steadily before the pandemic -- so we're even further behind our prepandemic trendline." "Zooming in on 2021, job growth picked up in October, and revisions made the Aug/Sep slowdown look milder. But we still aren't adding jobs at anywhere close to our early-summer pace. Recall that last spring, many economists were predicting several months of million-plus growth." "The unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. The drop was entirely for "good" reasons, in that it was driven by more people getting jobs and fewer people being unemployed." "That said, we didn't exactly see a rush back to the labor force in October. The labor force grew by just 104k. Labor force participation rate was flat." Related Dataset Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment &...

  • US inflation distribution

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    By Carl R Tannenbaum @NT_CTannembaum "Neat chart from ThEconomist showing how concentrated U.S. inflation is. The risk is in the middle: housing costs, the biggest category in the CPI, are beginning to rise more rapidly." The data for May 2021 is: The data for April 1984 is: The data for April1969 is: Related Dataset: Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City...

  • Chile's economic recovery

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    By Sergi Lanau @SergiLanauIIF "Chile's economy continued to expand fast in Sep, driving activity well above pre-covid trend growth. A clear overheating episode that will only end when fiscal policy turns more conservative. This is next year according to the 2022 budget but let's see after the elections." Related Dataset Activity - Chile - BCCh - Monthly Gross Domestic Product -...

  • Activity and Employment in Argentina: Goods and Services

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    By Gabriel Caamaño @GabCaamano "I had forgotten to share this previously. It's clear that, as has been said, since the reopening after the second wave, the economy is being boosted by services recovering from the pandemic. Goods, already in pre-pandemic levels, have been stable for a few months." "This will continue in September and October (last activity data, EMAE, is from August). Therefore, it is clear that this is a relay race that can't be perceived from the aggregates, and even pre-2018 and 2019 BoP crisis levels are far away." Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - Activity and Employment in Goods and Services Activity - Argentina - Activity and Employment in Industry and Construction and Other...

  • US GDP Q3-21

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "Economic output grew 0.5% in the third quarter (2% annualized). That's a sharp slowdown from the 1.6% (6.7% annualized) in Q2, as supply chain woes and the rise of the Delta variant constrained growth." "U.S. GDP surpassed its prepandemic level in the second quarter, but it's still well below the prepandemic trend." "But inflation is a big part of the story here. Nominal (non-inflation-adjusted) GDP is back on its prepandemic trend. But real (inflation-adjusted) GDP is below. Fits with the story of demand outstripping supply, so some of it ends up as higher prices, not more production." Related Dataset Activity - USA - BEA - Gross Domestic...

  • US Labor Productivity

    By Moody's Analytics @economics_ma "Mark Zandi: Concern that high U.S. #inflation will persist is understandable, but overdone." @chart https://charts.alphacast.io/p/alphacast/alphacast-staff-picks/activity---usa---bea---labor-productivity-growth?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&year=latest Related Dataset Activity - USA - BEA - Labor Productivity...

  • Brazilian Industrial Production

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    By The Brazilian Report @BrazilianReport "The Brazilian Agro-Industrial Production Index (PIMAgro), fell for the second month in a row in August after a year of mostly positive variations. Compared to the same month of last year, the index has fallen 3.2%." Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - IBGE - Industrial Production Index Activity - Brazil - Agroindustrial...

  • Global trade openness over time

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    By Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais "A historical perspective on trade and globalisation... World's merchandise exports have grown from ~5% of global GDP in 1950s to 20-25% currently. Average tariffs rate has been declining for three decades almost everywhere; United States among only exceptions." Related Datasets BOP - Global - World Bank - Trade - Trade as a Share of GDP BOP - Global - World Bank - Trade - Mean Weighted Tariff...

  • COVID third wave?

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    By The Economist @TheEconomist "Cases of covid-19 in Britain are nearly as high as they were in January. However the fatality rate is a fraction of what it was. Click to read how masks and booster vaccinations should help keep the virus at bay in the rich world." Related Dataset: Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...

  • US unemployment and price growth

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    By Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome "Via San Francisco Federal Reserve: "The results show that the increase in labor market tightness, attributable to the [stimulus package], is expected to cause inflation to increase by about 0.3 percentage point in 2021 and by a bit more than 0.2 percentage point in 2022" Related Datasets: Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment & Unemployment Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City Average Activity - USA - BLS - Labour Market stats -...

  • Argentina Industrial Production

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    By Matias Kulfas @KulfasM "The industrial production estimates by CEPXXI for September are very encouraging. Industry performed 14.7% above September of 2019, 8.9% above September of 2018, and 8.4% above the 2019 average." > 14 out of 14 sectors used more energy (correlated with output) in September of 2021 than in the same month of 2019. 64% of industrial firms produced more than in September of 2019. Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Industrial Production - Monthly Activity - Argentina - FIEL - Industrial Production - Monthly Activity - Argentina - Selected Indicators Activity - Argentina - Electricity demand by manufacturing...

  • Argentina Retail Sales

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    By Damian Di Pace @DiPace4 "Mother's Day 2021: retail sales increased 42.1% YoY, average spending was $3776. Top performer was the Restaurant business, where inflation-adjusted sales increased 82.6% YoY after a strict quarantine. " Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - CAME - Retail Sales Index - Quantity - Monthly Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Supermarket Survey - Monthly Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Shopping Mall Survey -...

  • Argentina Economic Activity, Q3-21

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    By CEPXXI @CEPXXI "The Argentine economy started the third quarter of the year at pre-pandemic levels. High-frequency indicators show that the economic recovery of the past two months was primarily caused by sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and recreational services." "For the first time in eighteen months, since the second half of September, mobility returned to pre-pandemic levels, as shown by the graph below." Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - Selected Indicators Activity - Argentina - Electricity demand by manufacturing subsector Activity - Argentina - Google Mobility Report -...

  • US Retail Sales and Inventories

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    By Jim Bianco @biancoresearch "These charts argue otherwise. Frenzied retail sales (orange) are running inventories (blue) to inventory/sales ratios (second chart) never thought possible even a few months ago. The only way this gets solved next month if we crush the economy so bad that all new sales stop." Related datasets Activity - USA - Sectorial Activity...

  • Argentina: GDP and GDP per capita

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    "Argentina in the last 50 years: Drop in GDP in 21 years (42% of years in recession), Drop in GDP per capita in 23 years (46% of years). Source: World Bank Data" "For some perspective: Second worst performer in the region (Venezuela is first). Source: OurWorldInData, Change in GDP per capita 1970-2018, in international $ and constant prices" Related datasets: Activity - Global - World Bank - World Development Indicators - Gross Domestic Product Activity - Global - Penn World Tables -...

  • USA Inflation

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    By Jason Furman @JasonFurman "At every point this year the median [Federal Reserve Board] Member predicted that inflation was about to fall to about or even below a 2% annual rate for the remainder of 2021." Thread continues, with another relevant tweet being: "In other words, the [Federal Reserve]'s version of "transitory" has been more like mean reversion in the price level. So not something like 5% inflation gradually slowing to 2% inflation but 5% inflation rapidly changing to 1.5% inflation. So far that has not happened." Related datasets: Inflation - USA - FED - Median Consumer Price Index [Inflation - USA - FED - Sticky Price Consumer Price Index...