Alphcast

Maia Mindel

@MaiaM

Macroeconomic analyst at Alphacast. Following inflation, activity, and trade.

Joined
July 2021

MaiaM's insights

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Hands-On: Tracking US Output With Alphacast

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Whether or not the US economy will enter a recession in 2023 is a crucial question for most analysts, given the financial tensions observed over the last month, resulting from the highest interest rates in decades. Unlike most countries, that define a recession based on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the United States utilizes a different definition - one provided by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which determines the business cycle peaks (and troughs) based on a series of 11 indicators. You can follow those, as well as the unemployment rate (utilized, though not directly, by NBER) in this dashboard. There is further analysis of what signs these indicators provide for output here. Most of the data is available on Alphacast so far, in repositories such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, unfortunately, a handful are not, and analyzing the complete breadth of data required is not always a possibility. Thus, this hands-on guide will show how to obtain the data from the FRED datasets, compile it, transform it, and present it - as it is in this pipeline. Given that...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - What's the inflation situation in the Americas?

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Latin America responded uniformly to the inflation surge, with varying degrees of success: Each country's price level responded to internal dynamics, but they all shared a common denominator: large monetary and fiscal stimulus packages in 2020 and sometimes even 2021, combined with surging international food and energy prices as a result of the situation in Ukraine, and global supply-side bottlenecks and disruptions from the pandemic and various global developments. Interest rate hikes over the past year have had an impact on price growth, with some countries proving more successful than others; at the same time, global financial conditions have affected and continue to affect the nations of Latin America in a variety of ways. Though prices already peaked in all countries, and February's figures seem to show inflation is on the way down in many, the degree to which efforts will not stall and the speed of the normalization of price growth will be crucial to determine whether Latin America can meet the challenges posed by the current, much more complex situation. Argentina has the highest inflation rate in the region, recently surpassing the three digit mark (102% YoY in February...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Hands On: ¿Cómo usar Alphacast para monitorear el financiamiento de PyMEs?

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    Por Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Más Alphacast Highlights disponibles en este link La economía argentina tiene una gran parte de su producción, empleo, y consumo destinado a Pequeñas y Medianas Empresas (PyMEs). Para entender su situación económica y financiera, especialmente considerando la escasez de estadísticas oficiales de alta frecuencia relevantes, es posible utilizar datos sobre su financiamiento. Para este tramo especial de la economía, los ECHEQs son fundamentales - y Alphacast cuenta con un dataset del Mercado de Valores actualizado en tiempo real de los mismos, discriminando según plazo, tipo de activo, y moneda. La complejidad del dataset, además de la cantidad de datos y variables disponibles, hace que saber procesarlos y analizarlos sea crucial para un análisis adecuado de los mismos. Por ende, en esta guía hands-on, se va a mostrar como filtrar los datos, transformarlos, y presentarlos gráficamente para su mejor aprovechamiento. Para esto, se va a utilizar el engine de pipelines de Alphacast para transformar y graficar datos de ECHEQs garantizados. Dado que la fuente está disponible en nuestra base de datos, la información se actualiza regular y automáticamente, al momento que se hace pública - tanto en el dataset original como en todos los usos. Paso a...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 6 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - The US Dollar strenghtened in 2022. How has Latin America fared?

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Through 2022, the US Dollar saw record-high appreciation in Q3 and early Q4, peaking at 18% YTD (DXY Index) - second only to the 26% registered during the Volcker Shock and its astronomical interest rates. However, the dollar normalized in November and December, finishing at a high rate (8%) but not one without precedent in the last 50 years. Over the first two months of 2023, the US dollar has continued moderating, showing a mild weakening though within normal historical parameters. The currencies of the major economies of Latin America have proven surprisingly resilient, since all but two countries outperformed the dollar in 2022. This stands in contrast to major currencies such as the Euro, which fell 6.1% YTD against the dollar by the end of the year. Some of the region's economies saw changes in line with inflation by the end of 2022, with Argentina showing a depreciation of 41% YTD and Colombia also seeing a large fall in the FX, of 14.7% YTD. Chile, meanwhile, also saw a depreciation, but a more modest one - of 1.2% YTD. The rest of the region's major economies saw appreciation in their...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 1 minute to read

    Alphacast Highlight - How has Latin America FX responded to the US Dollar appreciation?

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Through 2022, the US Dollar saw record-high appreciation in Q3 and early Q4, peaking at 18% YTD (DXY Index) - second only to the 26% registered during the Volcker Shock and its astronomical interest rates. However, the dollar normalized in November and December, finishing at a high rate (8%) but not one without precedent in the last 50 years. The currency of the major economies of Latin America has proven surprisingly resilient. With the exception of Argentina, where the FX felt 33% YTD, most currencies outperformed the Pound (-18%) or the Euro (-13%) and many of them even showed nominal appreciation: Uruguay (6.3%), Brazil (3.3%), Mexico (1.6%), Peru (0.5%), Chile (-12.3%) and Colombia...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Quick Tips

     - 9 minutes to read

    Hands on tracking Consumption and Investment in real time

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to create coincident indeces and monitor key economic variables. What is a coincident index? A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors two of the two largest components of GDP, Private Consumption and Private Fixed Investment. Since both indeces have a certain complexity, the methodology will be shown separately, though there are major similarities between the two. How to make the Investment Index In this case, we will show you how to create the coincident investment index. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. Given that the index uses the Alphacast pipelines engine and data available on the platform's database, that means that the Index will be updated to reflect it as soon as the data is uploaded in the Alphacast site - in a completely automated manner. The first step is identifying the data series...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: 10 charts that explain Latin America in 2022

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here 1. GDP continued recovering, but weaker conditions resulted in a slowdown Most of Latin America's economies grew in 2022, a continuation from 2021 after the COVID pandemic caused the deepest economic recession in decades, if ever, for the region's economies. However, a combination of global tailwinds, mediocre fundamentals, and an exhaustion of the post-2020 bump meant that most of the region's economies saw slowing growth throughout 2022. The slowdown is posed to continue over the next five years, returning to the tepid growth that plagued the region over the 2010s. 2. High-frequency data shows worsening trend for 2023 Using a weekly economic activity tracker from the OECD, we can see that the region saw little improvement in 2022, and in fact worsened in the final quarter. Activity appears to be close to 2019 levels for all major economies, meaning that the boost to growth that the post-pandemic recovery provided to the region's main economies might be over. Consequently, modest fundamentals and global tailwinds might take over as the defining factor for 2023 performance. 3. The labor market recovered, but at uneven rates Unemployment surged in 2020, as a result of the...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Argentina December 2022 Macro Brief

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    After a decade of mediocre performance, with near-zero growth since 2011 and two consecutive years of recession in 2018 and 2019, Argentina suffered a large contraction in 2020 - with GDP dropping by 9.9% in 2020. The recovery, nonetheless, was quick, with a subsequent expansion of 10.4% in 2021. Growth is expected to remain relatively strong, with professional forecasters predicting GDP to increase over 5% in 2022, but with slower rates of growth in 2023 and 2024. The main indicator to watch is inflation, however, which has increased rapidly and in a sustained fashion since 2018, where it reached 45% - and has broken post-2002 records every year except 2020. Price growth in 2022 is expected to close at roughly 100%, and price growth in 2023 is not seen as likely to decrease, with a near-identical expected inflation rate. The coming presidential elections are expected to bring further instability to the economy. Activity Post-COVID expansion continues at moderate pace. The Monthly GDP Estimate for October showed growth of 4.5% YoY, although a moderate contraction of 0.3% MoM, similar to the previous month's figures. In terms of sectors, Hotels and Restaurants showed an extremely strong performance, with most other sectors showing...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Uruguay December 2022 Macro Brief

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    Uruguay suffered its largest recession in decades in 2020, and the recovery has been moderate but stable. Output is expected to continue growing in 2022 and 2023, with a reopening of tourism aiding the economy. 2020 came off the back of a decade of slow and uneven growth, averaging 1.3% over the past decade and 0.6% over the past six. Regarding inflation, it has been higher and more volatile than in comparable peer countries, and remains above target - though the recent deviation is larger and more prolonged than any recent ones. The political sphere is expected to remain stable, with the current government being relatively popular. Activity The economy continues running at tepid pace. GDP figures for the third quarter of 2022 were released, and they show a major deceleration, with annual growth halving to 3.7% YoY (from 7.9% YoY in Q2-22) and negative quarterly growth, -0.2% QoQ (versus 1.4% in the previous quarter). Worringly, industrial production had negative growth in October, its worst performance since 2020 - with output dropping -4.2% YoY and-7.4% MoM. Output is expected to increase in 2022 and 2023 after a moderate rebound from the pandemic (4.4%), especially considering expectations for economic conditions; however,...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 5 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Mexico December 2022 Macro Brief

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    2020 was the worst slump Mexico suffered since the Great Depression, with GDP dropping 8.5% YoY, and an incomplete recovery (4.8% YoY) in 2021. This follows a very weak decade for Mexican growth, with GDP expanding 1.2% on average in the ten years, but only 0% annually since 2018. The economy is still expected to perform weakly, with expectations in the 1-2% annual range for 2022 and 2023 - especially since Mexico's close economic ties to the United States means that any slowdown in the world's largest economy affects it greatly, a major difference from every other large Latin American country. Activity The Mexican economy retains an unimpressive performance. The Monthly GDP Estimate showed a slowdown in September, with annual growth of 5.2% YoY (versus 5.7% YoY in August) and 0.9% MoM (vs 1.5% MoM). Most major sectors continued growing, led by Primary Activities (8.6% YoY), Manufacturing (8.4% YoY), Retail (6.5% YoY) and Services (5.6% YoY), retaining the relatively robust rates from the previous month. However, both Mining and Construction showed negative results (-2% YoY and -3.8% YoY respectively), and more concerningly, deepened their relatively bad performance compared to August. Growth in 2022 can primarily be explained as a continuing...

  • MaiaM published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / DSA Model

     - 4 minutes to read

    Alphacast Debt Sustainability Analysis: Colombia

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    Contents: - Introducing Debt Sustainability Analysis - Example: Colombia - Methodology Introducing Debt Sustainability Analysis Alphacast has integrated into it's platform a Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) Tool. Basically, this tool can help you forecast the Debt/GDP ratio of a country, taking into account specific characteristics such as growth, inflation, interest rates on domestic and foreign debt, exchange rate depreciation and primary surplus. The tool also applies shocks to generate a fan-chart style chart so it can account for uncertainty into the forecasts (see Methodology for more information). It will take literally less than a minute to generate charts just like this one below. Click here for a detailed explanation on how to use our new tool. Read below some examples to illustrate how to use this tool to produce your own analysis. Example: Colombia Over the past few years, Colombia has registered consecutive primary deficits and low growth rates. Recently, the government tried to reduce its primary deficit, so they could put public debt on a sustainable path again. Colombia's debt is primarily internal, although the country has sizable external liabilities as well, with about a third of total borrowing coming from international sources. In our base scenario we assume...

  • MaiaM published in Maia Mindel / My Public Repo

     - 4 minutes to read

    A short guide to Ecuadorian macro and financial data

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    Highlights of the Ecuadorian Economy The Ecuadorian economy continues slow recovery from COVID. Given that the economy was already in a recession by 2019, Ecuador was hit particularly hard by the COVID pandemic - with a GDP contraction of 9% in 2020 and a slow recovery of 4% in 2021, with an even lower expected rate for 2022 - resulting in a similarly unimpressive labor market. Unlike most other countries, inflation in Ecuador has increased but not to extraordinary levels, resulting in a more beneficial real exchange rate. Perspectives remain muted, with slow but steady growth and no real changes in inflation, although the country's financial position may face complications in the future. You can find a version of this piece on Ecuador here and read more Alphacast Highlights here Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Ecuador? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, including both government statistics and datasets produced by private entities. If you are looking for data about Ecuador you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Our Datasets are contained...

  • MaiaM published in Luciano Cohan / Exploring Alphacast

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Ecuadorian macro and financial data

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    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Ecuador? There are loads of datasets, available in both the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) and National Institute of Statistics (INEC) repositories, both containing oficial statistics from from different sources. The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release it, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. If you are looking for data about Ecuador you'll probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Our Datasets are contained in five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of the Ecuadorian Economy, you can monitor the evolution of GDP, Industrial Production, Employment and Wages. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Monthly Gross Domestic Product Employment Indicators Wages This is just a small sample of all the datasets we make available to our users, but there is more information that we know you will find useful such as fuel production or consumer confidence. Moreover, data is pre-processed within the platform so that you don't have to spend time doing transformations such as Seasonal Adjustment, currency change, %...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: Keeping Up With Ecuador's Economy

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here The Ecuadorian economy continues slow recovery from COVID. Given that the economy was already in a recession by 2019, Ecuador was hit particularly hard by the COVID pandemic - with a GDP contraction of 9% in 2020 and a slow recovery of 4% in 2021, with an even lower expected rate for 2022 - resulting in a similarly unimpressive labor market. Unlike most other countries, inflation in Ecuador has increased but not to extraordinary levels, resulting in a more beneficial real exchange rate. Perspectives remain muted, with slow but steady growth and no real changes in inflation, although the country's financial position may face complications in the future. The real economy and labor market show little room for improvement. Following a tepid performance in the years prior to the pandemic, the Ecuadorian economy has recovered slowly and moderately from the steep contraction it suffered in 2020. Real GDP remains more than 2% below pre-pandemic and pre-recession levels, with employment seeing a bumpy but progressive recovery. Given this, and the fact that both employment and output seemed stagnant over the previous decade, it is unlikely that growth takes off in Ecuador in...

  • MaiaM published in Luciano Cohan / Exploring Alphacast

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Uruguayan macro and financial data

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    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Uruguay? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, including both government statistics and datasets produced by private entities. If you are looking for data about Uruguay you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Uruguay Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Uruguay Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and Uruguay's Ministry of Economy and Finances. The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money...

  • MaiaM published in Luciano Cohan / Exploring Alphacast

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Mexican macro and financial data

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    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Mexico? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, including both government statistics and datasets produced by private entities. If you are looking for data about Mexico you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Mexico Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Mexico Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and Mexico's Department of the Treasury (SHCP). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity,...

  • MaiaM published in Maia Mindel / My Public Repo

     - 6 minutes to read

    Step-by-Step: How the Coincident Consumption Index Was Made

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    A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors one the largest components of GDP, Private Consumption. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. You can see read more about the index (methodology, usefulness, interpretation) here. | Component | Weight | Indicators| | --- | --- | --- | | Food and Beverages| 22.7%| Baked Goods, Meats, Fruits and Vegetables, Dairy, Beverages, Sweets and Candy| | Housing and Utilities| 14.5%| Real Estate and Housing Services, Electricity, Heating, Running Water| | Transportation| 14.5%| Vehicle purchases, Fuels, Transportation Services, Airfare| | Recreation and Culture | 8.6%| Related goods| | Clothing and Footwear | 6.8%| Clothing and Footwear production| | Restaurants and Hotels | 6.6%| Restaurants and Hotels activity| | Healthcare | 6.4%| Healthcare activity| | Home Equipment | 5.4%| Appliances, Furniture and Mattresses| | Communications | 5.3%| Activity in Communications| | Other Services| 4.3%| Financial Services, Personal and Professional Services| | Education| 3.2%| Education activity| | Alcohol and Tobacco| 1.9%| Wine,...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 6 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight: Tracking Consumption and Investment in real time

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Check out the coincident Consumption Index and the Investment Index What are Coincident Indexes? Argentina, as usual, is in the midst of economic turmoil, with two years of recession prior to the COVID pandemic at the end of a decade without any economic growth to speak of. It is widely agreed upon by politicians and experts, across parties, that boosting private investment is one of the key items to resolve these issues, although there is (naturally) widespread disagreement on how to accomplish this. At the same time, real personal consumption has suffered since the 2018-19 recession, and its recovery is a major concern for political and economic reasons alike. Consequently, being able to track fixed investment and private consumption data with higher frequency than the quarterly figures from INDEC's National Accounts publications is of great importance. We can do just that with a coincident index. A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors one the two largest components of GDP, Private Fixed Investment. Such an index tracks these variables relatively...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Uruguay (October 2022 Macro Brief)

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    Uruguay's economy had been growing very slowly and unevenly over the past decade, especially in the last 7 years - with growth averaging 1.3% over the past decade and 0.6% over the past six. The Uruguayan economy is expected to continue growing in 2022 and 2023, particularly due to a reopening of tourism. Inflation has stayed above target for most of the decade, although the recent deviation is both larger and more prolonged than previous ones. Politics are expected to remain stable, with the current government being relatively popular, and elections not being scheduled for another two years. Activity GDP is expected to grow 5.2% in 2022 and 3% in 2023. After a moderate recovery in 2021 (4.4%), output is expected to increase in the current year and during the next one, both due to a rebound after the pandemic, but also due to better expectations for economic conditions. Industrial production grew 5.4% MoM and 9.3% YoY in August, following a disappointing performance in July (-1% YoY, -1.8% MoM). The fastest growing sectors have been Rubber and Plastics (+31.5% YoY), Chemicals (+20% YoY), and Food (+11.9% YoY). Inflation Headline inflation accelerated in September, with prices growing 10% YoY and 0.8%...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Mexico October 2022 Macro Brief

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    Mexico has grown slowly in recent years, particularly since 2018. The Mexican economy hasd grown 1.2% on average in the last decade, but 0% in the last 5 years. In 2020, the country suffered its worst recession since the Great Depression, with GDP dropping 8.5% YoY - and the recovery was incomplete in 2021, with only 4.8% growth. The economy is expected to continue its recovery very slowly, with expectations in the 1-2% annual range for 2022 and 2023. This is due to the Mexican economy's close ties to US economic performance, a major difference from every other large Latin American country. Activity The economy is expected to grow 2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. In August, Mexico's monthly GDP estimate rose 5.7% YoY and 1.4% MoM, surpassing July's figure of 1.7% YoY and -0.7% MoM. Growth was led by Manufacturing Industries (+8.1% YoY), Services (+6.6% YoY), and Retail (+6.2% YoY). Growth in 2022 can be explained as a result of the still-ongoing recovery from the 2020 recession. Inflation Headline inflation accelerated in August. Annual inflation was 8.7% YoY in August, higher than July's 8.2% YoY printing. All segments of inflation accelerated, with the more volatile Non-Core prices growing...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 6 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Central Banks reacted strongly to higher inflation rates

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Inflation in Latin America, rapidly accelerated in 2021 and 2022 after the deflationary slowdown in 2020, as a result of both increased demand after stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, and of supply factors ranging from international shipping delays to a commodity price shock given the events in Eastern Europe. The region's highest inflation rate is Argentina's 78.5%, which follows the country's singular price dynamics and economic policies. Meanwhile, the rest of the region is experiencing high inflation rates, led by Chile's 14.1% YoY, Paraguay's 10.5%, Colombia's 10.2%, Brazil's 8.8%, Mexico's 8.7%, and Peru's 8.4%. Ecuador, which has adopted the US dollar as its currency, is experiencing a lower inflation rate of 3.8%, and Bolivian price growth has barely budged - to 1.6% a year even in the most inflationary global environment in half a century. Following this spike in price growth, the region's Central Banks have embarked on an aggressive tightening cycle, as in the rest of the world. In response to the newly inflationary global context, central banks have raised rates to their highest levels in years, and in some cases decades. This rapid tightening of financial conditions serves dual...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 4 minutes to read

    Alphacast Highlight - Inflation accelerated in 2022, following commodity price surge

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    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Following global trends, inflation rapidly accelerated in 2022 in Latin America, as a result of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to counteract the 2020 recession brought on by the COVID pandemic, disruptions to international supply chains, and recent geopolitical tensions, as well as political uncertainty in a large swathe of the region. Broadly, patterns in all countries are similar: after a depressed inflation rate during 2020, as a result of lower spending during the worst months of the pandemic, inflation began accelerating in the second half of 2021 and reached the highest levels in decades. This follows global trends, with price spillovers between countries being a possibility, as well as the effects of supply-side constraints last year, and of the War in Ukraine during the past seven months. Largely, inflation rates reflect a broad acceleration of the rate of price growth, rather than an increase in specific items (particularly food and energy), although it is clear that food inflation and global energy prices have contributed to the recent increases in cost of living. The combination of broad-based price increases with specific commodity market disruptions poses a significant challenge to policymakers. Argentina...

  • MaiaM published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / Alphacast Data Guides

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Mexican macro data

    **Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Mexico? There are more than 200 datasets (see for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Mexico, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Uruguay Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Mexico Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), the Central Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the Treasury Ministry (MH). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity of the...

  • MaiaM published in Mariano Sanchez Moreno / Alphacast Data Guides

     - 3 minutes to read

    A short guide to Uruguayan macro data

    **Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Uruguay? There are more than 100 datasets for Uruguay (See for example this Repository).** If you look for data about Uruguay, you will probably find it there. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Uruguay Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Uruguay Country Profile Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Uruguayan National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Central Bank of Uruguay and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the economic activity...

  • MaiaM published in Maia Mindel / My Public Repo

     - 2 minutes to read

    Keeping Track of Vehicle Prices

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    Automobiles are a major item for the economy, both because of the weight the industry has on total manufacturing output/employment, and because of their relevance for consumer spending. But data on vehicle prices is not easy to find, and INDEC does not publish a monthly estimate for national vehicle prices. Utilizing both the INDEC Wholesale Price Index (IPIM) and the City of Buenos Aires Consumer Price Index (CBA-CPI), it is possible to keep track of vehicle prices with an Alphacast pipeline. The procedure is simple: after fetching both datasets and merging them, you can take a simple average of their monthly variations (IPIM Vehicle Prices and CBA-CPI Vehicle Purchases), and derive a base Dec-16=100 index that follows both. The final data is available here. Using transformations, you can add other datapoints to the story, such as real vehicle prices, and MoM or YoY changes. It is possible to then see a variety of phenomena. For instance, real vehicle prices decreased strongly between mid-2016 and mid-2018, but increased rapidly after each large devaluation. However, absent large devaluations, prices accelerated without any exchange rate devaluations - in fact, prices grew as much between 2016 and June 2020 as since June 2020. Regardless,...

  • MaiaM published in SEIDO / SEIDO Public Repository

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    Step-by-Step: How the Coincident Investment Index Was Made

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    A coincident index provides a gauge for the movement of a key economic variable through the use of related data series. In this case, the coincident investment index mirrors one the two largest components of GDP, Private Fixed Investment. The index is divided in sections, which are weighed in accordance with their relevance to the variable at hand, and estimated using the latest available data for each. You can see read more about the index (methodology, usefulness, interpretation) here. | Component | Weight | Indicators| | --- | --- | --- | | Construction | 47.2%| Construction Activity, Construction Employment| | Machinery and Equipment| 41.4% | Machinery Production, Capital Goods Imports| | Transportation Equipment| 11.3%| Utility Vehicles Sales, Transportation Imports | Rather than focusing on what the index looks like and what to use it for, this post will focus on how the Alphacast pipelines engine can be used to make it in a completely automated manner. This means that, as soon as the data is uploaded in the Alphacast site, the Index will be updated to reflect it. The first step, then, is identifying the data. As said above, the index is divided into three components, reflected their importance...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    US Labor Market in December

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "Omicron hasn't cooled off the red-hot job market. Openings rose to 10.9 million in December, close to a record." "How hard is it to hire right now? There were only about 60 unemployed workers for every 100 job openings in December, the fewest on record." "4.3 million workers quit their jobs in December (many of them, most likely, to take better-paying jobs elsewhere). That's down slightly, but still close to a record." "Employers laid off or fired fewer than 1.2 million workers. That's the fewest in the 20 years we've been keeping track. (Not that you can see that very clearly on this chart, given the insane distortion from early in the pandemic.)" Related Dataset: Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment &...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    US Fourth Quarter GDP Growth

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew by 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (6.9% on an annualized basis). That makes 2021 the best full year for growth since 1984." "Real G.D.P. is still below its prepandemic trend, although the acceleration in the fourth quarter helped it catch up. But nominal G.D.P. (not adjusted for inflation) has significantly surpassed its prepandemic trend. So inflation is eating some of the gains in the recovery. "You can see this even more clearly putting the two series together -- nominal G.D.P. has soared above trend, while real G.D.P. is still trying to get back. (Though rebound has been historically strong by either measure.)" "For all of 2021, the economy grew 5.7%, adjusted for inflation. That's the best year of growth since 1984. Measured from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021 (arguably a better measure of growth during a year), the economy grew 5.5%, also the best since 1984." Related Dataset Activity - USA - BEA - Gross Domestic...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Agro Foreign Currency Sales

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    By Martín Polo @mapolo1978 "Impressive. This year, agro foreign currency sales should be roughly USD 38bn. Historic record. Good performance in prices, quantitites, appropriate for normalizing the currency market instead of complaining about the "external restriction"... but things happened" Related Datasets Agriculture - Argentina -...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    US labor market in November

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    By Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) "Employers added 210k jobs in November, which is down sharply from October and way below economists' expectations." "We still have nearly 4 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic, and the gap is even larger if you factor in the growth we would have had absent the pandemic." "But! There was also some very good news in the report, from the separate survey of households. The labor force, which had been stagnant for months, added nearly 600,000 people." "And employment, as measured in the household survey, rose by 1.1 million. The employment rate jumped by a whopping 0.4 percentage points." Related Datasets Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment & Unemployment Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment and Labor Force Participacion...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Discontinued

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    US Inflation and Retail Sales

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "One big factor in inflation: We're still spending way more on stuff than before the pandemic. Retail sales up 1.7% in October, and more than 20% above prepandemic levels (not adjusted for inflation)." "Compare that to restaurant spending, which was flat in October and is basically on its pre-Covid trend line. And restaurant sales have held up better than many in-person services, thanks to takeout." "This isn't just about rising prices, either. Even in inflation-adjusted terms, retail sales are way above their prepandemic trend." Related Dataset Activity - USA - Census Bureau - Retail Sales -...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

     - 2 minutes to read

    United States: Income, Expenditures, Inflation

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    By Joseph Politano @JosephPolitano "The CPI is currently running well ahead of its pre-COVID 2% growth trend, although it is worth acknowledging that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (which the Federal Reserve targets) has shows significantly lower readings." "The pandemic has driven spending that would have gone to services into additional consumer and durable goods. Supply chains appear strained are operating under unprecedented order volumes. In other words, this is a crisis of abundance rather than a crisis of scarcity." "Today, goods prices tell a different story. Car prices have stalled, with used car and truck prices growing 2.5% after shrinking in August and September. This is partly because rising prices choked demand and partly because vaccinations are enabling additional services spending." "Fundamentally, sustained inflation cannot occur without above-trend income and spending growth. As of right now, both personal incomes and personal spending remain on-trend. As long as nominal income growth remains on-trend inflation will slide back down to normal levels." Related Datasets Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City Average Labour & Income - United States - BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures on Goods and...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Discontinued

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    Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise across Europe

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    By John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch "NEW: Covid cases, hospitalisations & deaths on the rise again across Europe, with rates of all three metrics surpassing the UK in many countries Starting in the west: Belgium, Netherlands & Germany in particular experiencing sharp increases in not only cases but ICU & deaths too." Related Dataset Misc - Global - OurWorldInData Coronavirus Dataset -...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    US job market in October

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    By Ben Casselman @bencasselman "Big-picture: We're still down about 4.2 million jobs relative to our prepandemic level." "And the gap is even larger if you remember that we were adding jobs steadily before the pandemic -- so we're even further behind our prepandemic trendline." "Zooming in on 2021, job growth picked up in October, and revisions made the Aug/Sep slowdown look milder. But we still aren't adding jobs at anywhere close to our early-summer pace. Recall that last spring, many economists were predicting several months of million-plus growth." "The unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. The drop was entirely for "good" reasons, in that it was driven by more people getting jobs and fewer people being unemployed." "That said, we didn't exactly see a rush back to the labor force in October. The labor force grew by just 104k. Labor force participation rate was flat." Related Dataset Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment &...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    US inflation distribution

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    By Carl R Tannenbaum @NT_CTannembaum "Neat chart from ThEconomist showing how concentrated U.S. inflation is. The risk is in the middle: housing costs, the biggest category in the CPI, are beginning to rise more rapidly." The data for May 2021 is: The data for April 1984 is: The data for April1969 is: Related Dataset: Inflation - USA - BLS - Consumer Price Index - U.S. City...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Highlights

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    Chile's economic recovery

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    By Sergi Lanau @SergiLanauIIF "Chile's economy continued to expand fast in Sep, driving activity well above pre-covid trend growth. A clear overheating episode that will only end when fiscal policy turns more conservative. This is next year according to the 2022 budget but let's see after the elections." Related Dataset Activity - Chile - BCCh - Monthly Gross Domestic Product -...

  • MaiaM published in Alphacast / Alphacast Discontinued

     - 2 minutes to read

    Activity and Employment in Argentina: Goods and Services

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    By Gabriel Caamaño @GabCaamano "I had forgotten to share this previously. It's clear that, as has been said, since the reopening after the second wave, the economy is being boosted by services recovering from the pandemic. Goods, already in pre-pandemic levels, have been stable for a few months." "This will continue in September and October (last activity data, EMAE, is from August). Therefore, it is clear that this is a relay race that can't be perceived from the aggregates, and even pre-2018 and 2019 BoP crisis levels are far away." Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - Activity and Employment in Goods and Services Activity - Argentina - Activity and Employment in Industry and Construction and Other...