Milagros Ricchini

@milagrosricchini

Joined
November 2021

milagrosricchini's insights

  • Hands on analysing Ecuador fiscal data with Alphacast

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    By Milagros Ricchini (mricchini@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to automatize Latin American economies' analysis. In this case, we are going to make a graph of Ecuador's fiscal result and calculate its primary expenditure, which is not a variable of the dataset. First, we look for the dataset which contains the variables we need: Fiscal - Ecuador - BCE - Non Financial Public Sector Operations. The data excerpt in the overview of the dataset shows it contains multiple entities, this is useful information for the next steps in this guide, where we are going to transform the data using pipelines and create the graphs we need. So, the next step is to transform de data by clicking on the right top button "Transform Data" Now it's time for action! As we saw the dataset has multiple entities, first we are going to filter the ones we are interested in, which are overall result, primary result, total expenditures and total revenue included into the entity "Totals": When we click "Save & Preview Data" we can see the dataset we have now: As the entities "Fist Level" and "Second...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Chile December 2022 Macro Brief

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    Chile was among the fast-growing economies before it was hit by political turmoil in 2019. Ten years' growth is 2.1%. That said, it grew fast after the pandemic and nowadays it is 9% above that level. Stronger consumption was financed by three partial withdrawals of pension savings. Not only is it the single economy in the region that is contracting in 2022 but it is expected to contract in 2023 as well. Regarding inflation, they showed the worst performer of the year. The rejection of the constitutional amendment may lead to a more market-friendly path ahead. Nonetheless, social unrest, volatile copper prices, and the government’s weak parliamentary position imply a highly uncertain scenario. Activity In 2023 GDP is expected to fall 1.5%. In October, Chile's Monthly GDP Estimate grew for the third time in the year, by 0.55% MoM, while in annual terms it fell -1.3%. This growth was pushed by the mining sector (+6.4% MoM) and wholesale and retail trade (+0.4% MoM), offsetting the fall of the tertiary sector (-0.6% MoM) and of the industrial sector (-1.5% MoM). The slowdown of activity in 2022 can be explained by the cease in the Covid-19 transfers and the lack of impulse...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Colombia December 2022 Macro Brief

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    All in all, the macro state of affairs shows several warning signs, which the consensus incorporates in its figures by pointing to a slowdown to 2.3% in 2023. Consumption is posed to decelerate in the context of high inflation (headline 12% YoY, food 27%) as real wage contracs. With the highest figure in the region, 75% out of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption. The country faces a large, risky twin deficit of the Current Account (-6.5%) and Fiscal Account (-5.9%). That said, the Governmet interest payments account for as much as 3.9% of GDP. Activity Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 7.6% in 2022 fueled by the growth of exports, remittances and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. Colombian Monthly GDP Estimate fell -0.6% MoM in October (vs. -0.03% in September) and it is 4.6% above the previous year's level. In addition, it was mainly boosted by tertiary sector activities, such as professional and business services, with a 0.1% MoM rise, while secondary and primary activities showed negative variations of -1.5% and -2.1% MoM, respectively. Inflation Given the government's expansionary policies and similar pressures from the supply...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Colombia October 2022 Macro Brief

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    The Colombian economy is still adapting to the political swing of the Petro Administration, the first left-wing president ever! The macro flashes multiple warnings, and consensus for 2023 points to deceleration to 2.3%. 75% of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption, the highest figure in the region, and consumption is posed to decelerate in the context of high inflation (11% Yoy Headline but 25% food) and real wage contraction. The country faces a large and risky twin deficit of the current (-6.2%) and Fiscal (-5.9%) accounts and the Gov. Interest payments account for as much as 3.9% of GDP. On the onset of a major political swing, the balance of risk for Colombia is looking negative. Activity Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 6.0% in 2022, fueled by the growth of exports, remittances, and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. Colombian Monthly GDP Estimate grew 1.4% MoM in August (vs. -0.3% in July) and is 8.6% above the previous year's level, mainly boosted by secondary sector activities, such as manufacturing and construction, with a 3.4% MoM rise. Inflation Moreover, Colombia is suffering from an elevated inflation rate, given...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Chile October 2022 Macro Brief

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    Chile was among the fast-growing economies before it was hit by political turmoil in 2019. Ten years' growth is 2.1%. It grew fast after the pandemic and is now 7% above, fueled by consumption financed by three partial withdrawals of pension savings. In 2022 It's the only economy in the region that is contracting and is expected to contract in 2023 and in terms of FX and inflation it was the worst performer of the year. The rejection of the constitutional amendment may lead to a more market-friendly proposition. However social unrest, violence in the south, volatile copper prices, and the government’s weak parliamentary position imply a highly uncertain scenario. Activity In 2023 GDP is expected to fall 1.0%. In August, Chile's Monthly GDP Estimate grew for the second time in the year, of 0.65% MoM, while in annual terms it remained without changes. This growth was pushed by the services sector (+1.9% MoM), offsetting the fall of the wholesale and retail trade (-2% MoM). The slowdown of activity in 2022 can be explained by the cease in the Covid-19 transfers and the lack of impulse that the withdrawals of pension savings gave to the economy the previous year. Inflation...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Investment rates in LATAM recovered in 2022

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    By Milagros Ricchini (mricchini@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Having been strongly hit at the onset of the Pandemic, in 2022 the investment rate is recovering throughout the region The investment rate in Chile is 24% of GDP, the highest and most stable rate in the region. Surprisingly, during 2020 Chile investment was mildly affected in comparative terms, and is now above pre-pandemic levels, even despite recent years' hike in political uncertainty. Over the last year, investment grew 7.4% compared to 5.4% of GDP growth. Analyzing the last 10 years, Chile’s investment dynamics were positive compared to the region, accumulating a 15% growth, but negative compared to developed economies such as the United States, Euro Area, or the United Kingdom. Peru was strongly hit by Covid but has already recovered its investment rate, positioning as the highest of the region with a level of 26%. In the short run, investment growth is very modest with an annual growth rate of only 1.1% vs GDP’s 3.3%, signaling that investment isn’t nowadays a driver of Peru’s economic activity. Argentina is an unusual case. The country is showing a record-high investment rate, that is driven not by real investment opportunities but by the...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Monetary Unwinding in LATAM

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    By Milagros Ricchini (mricchini@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here During 2020 and 2021, massive amounts of liquidity were injected by the Central Banks to moderate the impact of the crisis and help finance the fiscal cushions, but with the hike in worldwide inflation, this has already started to reverse. Colombia is the country in the region with the highest Monetary Base/GDP ratio, increasing 3 p.p. during the pandemic and currently reverted 2p.p. from that increase, while in terms of M2/GDP the increase during the pandemic reached 10 p.p. and is now 6 p.p. down from its highest point. Monetary Base and M2 have stabilized in real terms for some time, meaning that the contraction in terms of GDP is mostly explained by growth and not due to a fall in the aggregates. Mexico increased 3 p.p. the Monetary Base/GDP ratio during the pandemic and maintained that level since, and something similar happened to the M2 ratio, which increased by 6 p.p. during the pandemic and then remained stable in that place. Mexico ranks second in terms of money base/GDP and fourth in M2s, which means it doesn't have such a developed financial market as other countries in the region. Third...

  • Central Banks' Dashboard

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    Alphacast hosts thousands of datasets, with global coverage. You can find an interactive dashboard with at least 30 charts to keep track of global monetary events. Our new Global Central Banks Dashboard allows an updated view of monetary policy in major central banks: Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the People's Bank of China. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on this dashboard. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, add your own format and colors, and brand. Feel free to reuse everything of your own will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard. Federal Reserve See further details about the Federal Reserve balance sheet here. European Central Bank See further details about the European Central Bank balance sheet here. Bank of Japan See further details about the Bank of Japan balance sheet here. People´s Bank of China See further details about the People’s Bank of China balance sheet here. Bank of England See further details about the Bank of England balance sheet...

  • Argentina's Agro Overview: Corn

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    This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data.. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other agro dashboards for Argentina: Soybeans - Wheat Corn Global Production (USDA) Local Production:...

  • Argentina's Agro Overview: Wheat

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    This dashboard was created with Alphacast. Alphacast hosts hundreds of Datasets to keep track of commodity markets. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data.. Click on any chart to make it interactive, and clip it to add it to your own dashboards. You can also create your own charts or use pipelines to transform the data. Feel free to reuse everything at will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other agro dashboards for Argentina: Soybeans - Corn Wheat Global Production (USDA) Local Production:...

  • Latam Macro Dashboard

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    Alphacast now hosts thousands of Latin American Datasets for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. For each country, we have created an interactive dashboard with at least 30 charts to keep up to date with the short-term economic outlook. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on those dashboards. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, add your own format and colors, and brand. Feel free to reuse everything at your own will. Click on the country name to access its dashboard: Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other Macro Dashboards: Argentina - Brazil - Chile - Colombia - Mexico - Peru - Uruguay Activity Prices Monetary Fiscal External Sector...

  • Chile Macro Dashboard

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    Alphacast hosts thousands of Latin American Datasets for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. You can find an interactive dashboard with at least 30 charts to keep up to date with the short-term economic outlook. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on those dashboards. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, add your own format and colors, and brand. Feel free to reuse everything of your own will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other Macro Dashboards: Latin America - Brazil - Argentina - Colombia - Mexico - Peru - Uruguay Activity Prices Monetary Fiscal External Sector Financial A short guide to Chilean macro data (link) Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Chile? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from the country. If you are looking for data about Chile you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see"...

  • Colombia Macro Dashboard

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    Alphacast hosts thousands of Latin American Datasets for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. You can find an interactive dashboard with at least 30 charts to keep up to date with the short-term economic outlook. Dashboards are updated every day with the most recent data. Remember that you can copy and clone everything you see on those dashboards. Create your own charts or pipelines to transform the data, add your own format and colors, and brand. Feel free to reuse everything of your own will. Follow this simple guide - or video - to learn how to create a dashboard Other Macro Dashboards: Latin America - Brazil - Chile - Argentina - Mexico - Peru - Uruguay Activity Prices Monetary Fiscal External Sector Financial A short guide to Colombian macro data (Click data) Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Colombia? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has official statistics from the country. If you are looking for data about Colombia you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see"...

  • A short guide to Argentinean macro data

    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Argentina? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from from different sources, INDEC's Repository and BCRA's Repository. If you are looking for data about Argentina you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Argentina Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Argentina Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) and Argentina's Ministry of Economy (MECON). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External...

  • A short guide to Chilean macro data

    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Chile? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from the country. If you are looking for data about Chile you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Chile Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Chile Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh), the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Chile's National Department of Tresaury (Min. Hacienda). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To...

  • A short guide to Colombian macro data

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    Interested in activity, prices, monetary, fiscal, external sector, and financial data for Colombia? There are loads of datasets, see for example this Repository which has oficial statistics from the country. If you are looking for data about Colombia you'll probably find it here. However, this short guide will help you find the basic "must-see" datasets. Colombia Country Profile Dashboard The starting point is our Colombia Macro Dashboard, a fully automatized Dashboard presenting up-to-date data. You can catch a glimpse and get a broad idea of the latest developments. The Charts are fully integrated with our datasets, so if you want to replicate any of them, you can download the source Dataset, or just click the button “Clone Chart” to reproduce the Chart inside our Platform. The main sources for the data used on this Dashboard come from the Colombian Central Bank (BanRep), the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) and Colombia's National Department of Tresaury (MHCP). The data is fully integrated with our database which means once the sources release the data, our database will be instantaneously updated on our platform. Our Dashboard contains five sections: Activity, Prices, Money and Banking, Fiscal, External Sector and Financial. Activity To track the...

  • Revivieron las tasas

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    En 2021 y 2022 varios países revirtieron la baja de tasas que se dió durante la pandemia, principalmente por el rebrote inflacionario que se surgió como consecuencia de la mayor emisión monetaria. Esta se utilizó para financiar el elevado gasto público resultado de los paquetes de ayuda económica en el marco del Covid. Aquí propongo un monitor de tasas de política monetaria, utilizando el dataset del BIS de "Policy Rates" que pueden ver siguiendo este link. En primer lugar, podemos ver las tasas de política monetaria de países de Latinoamérica a partir de 2020. Se observa como bajan en los primeros meses, al comienzo de la cuarentena y luego van aumentando a partir de 2021 ya que comienzan a verse niveles cada vez mayores de inflación. Argentina a pesar de ser el país con más inflación es el último que reacciona subiendo las tasas. El comportamiento de las economías desarrolladas es muy similar, solo que en este caso la Zona Euro no responde, mantendiendo sus tasas en 0%. Además vemos como Estados Unidos aumentó la tasa más tarde y de forma rápida, mientras que el Reino Unido comenzó antes y lo hizo de forma más gradual. Para entender mejor por...

  • Chile Activity Remains Robust & Colombia Labour Markets Show Mixed Results

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    by Scotiabank Economics "#Latam Daily for Dec. 1: 🇨🇱 #Chile's recovery firing on all cylinders; 🇨🇴 #Colombia's labour market shows mixed results. Full Report: https://scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.daily-publications.latam-daily.latam-daily.2021-issues.-december-1-2021-.html #EmergingMarkets" #Latam Related Datasets Activity - Chile - BCCh - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Colombia - DANE - Employment -...

  • Argentina: Government Confidence Index

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    by Juan Negri "The Government Confidence Index (GCI) that we do in @UTDT_Gobierno is out now. It fell almost 5 points over the last month. It is the lowest value of the AF government, even below Macri's worst measurement (April 2019) and still with two more remaining years in the office" #Argentina Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - UTDT - Consumer and Government Confidence -...

  • Price Pressures: Spanish inflation hit 5.6% in November

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    by Holger Zschaepitz "#Spain’s #inflation accelerates to the fastest in nearly 30yrs on rising food prices, underscoring the lingering consequences of supply bottlenecks across the continent. CPI jumped 5.6% in Nov, highest since Sep1992, exceeding expectations of 5.5%. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/spanish-inflation-surges-to-highest-in-nearly-30-years-on-food?sref=R17xFhjo" Related Datasets Activity - Global - OECD - Main Economic Indicators - Key short-term indicators - Monthly Prices - Spain - INE - Consumer Price...

  • Shock resistance

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    by Mike Bird "Even as consumer prices surge across much of the world, and massive rises in import costs, Japan simply WILL NOT countenance any inflation. Outright refusal. No dice. https://economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/11/20/the-case-of-the-curiously-quiescent-inflation-rate" #Global Related Datasets Prices - Global - OCDE - Consumer Price...

  • WTI Crude prices have fallen 8% since the October high

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    by Lisa Abramowicz "China is releasing some oil from its strategic reserves after the U.S. invited it to participate in a joint sale. WTI crude prices have fallen 8% since the October high, to the lowest in more than a month. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/china-says-release-from-strategic-oil-reserves-in-the-works" #Global Related Datasets Financial - Global - Commodities -...

  • Recovery in employment remains more incomplete for people of color. Suffer most in recessions, benefit most from strong recoveries.

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    by Claudia Sahm "Sad morning chart. Sar from "inclusive" and "broad-based" employment, especially among Black and Hispanic workers." #United States "Black and Hispanic employment rates are 3 percentage points below pre-Covid level, while White rate is 2 percentage points." Related Datasets Labour & Income - USA - BLS - Employment &...

  • Chile: Inflation is on the rise driven by policy stimulus

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    by Martin Castellano "In Chile, inflation rose to 6% y/y in October, the highest reading since early 2009, fueled by policy stimulus. Pressure to further tighten monetary policy is mounting. Our latest note @IIF analyzes the implications of the fourth pension withdrawal under discussion in Congress." #Chile Related Datasets Inflation - Chile - INE - 2009 Consumer Price Index - Spliced Series - Monthly Activity - Chile - INE - Retail Trade Activity -...

  • US Treasuries are losing their safe haven status

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    by Robin Brooks "I often hear: US Treasuries are desirable because they're a good risk hedge. No! Think back to March 2020. S&P 500 (orange) was tanking & 10-year yield (white) spiked. It's only thanks to massive Fed QE that yields went back down. US Treasuries are losing their safe haven status." #Unites States Related Datasets Financial - Global - Rates - Daily Financial - Global - Equity Indexes -...