Milagros Ricchini
@milagrosricchini
Milagros Ricchini
@milagrosricchini
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Hands on analysing Ecuador fiscal data with Alphacast
By Milagros Ricchini (mricchini@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here In this hands-on guide, we will show you how to use Alphacast Pipelines to automatize Latin American economies' analysis. In this case, we are going to make a graph of Ecuador's fiscal result and calculate its primary expenditure, which is not a variable of the dataset. First, we look for the dataset which contains the variables we need: Fiscal - Ecuador - BCE - Non Financial Public Sector Operations. The data excerpt in the overview of the dataset shows it contains multiple entities, this is useful information for the next steps in this guide, where we are going to transform the data using pipelines and create the graphs we need. So, the next step is to transform de data by clicking on the right top button "Transform Data" Now it's time for action! As we saw the dataset has multiple entities, first we are going to filter the ones we are interested in, which are overall result, primary result, total expenditures and total revenue included into the entity "Totals": When we click "Save & Preview Data" we can see the dataset we have now: As the entities "Fist Level" and "Second...
Alphacast Highlight - Chile December 2022 Macro Brief
Chile was among the fast-growing economies before it was hit by political turmoil in 2019. Ten years' growth is 2.1%. That said, it grew fast after the pandemic and nowadays it is 9% above that level. Stronger consumption was financed by three partial withdrawals of pension savings. Not only is it the single economy in the region that is contracting in 2022 but it is expected to contract in 2023 as well. Regarding inflation, they showed the worst performer of the year. The rejection of the constitutional amendment may lead to a more market-friendly path ahead. Nonetheless, social unrest, volatile copper prices, and the government’s weak parliamentary position imply a highly uncertain scenario. Activity In 2023 GDP is expected to fall 1.5%. In October, Chile's Monthly GDP Estimate grew for the third time in the year, by 0.55% MoM, while in annual terms it fell -1.3%. This growth was pushed by the mining sector (+6.4% MoM) and wholesale and retail trade (+0.4% MoM), offsetting the fall of the tertiary sector (-0.6% MoM) and of the industrial sector (-1.5% MoM). The slowdown of activity in 2022 can be explained by the cease in the Covid-19 transfers and the lack of impulse...
Alphacast Highlight - Colombia December 2022 Macro Brief
All in all, the macro state of affairs shows several warning signs, which the consensus incorporates in its figures by pointing to a slowdown to 2.3% in 2023. Consumption is posed to decelerate in the context of high inflation (headline 12% YoY, food 27%) as real wage contracs. With the highest figure in the region, 75% out of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption. The country faces a large, risky twin deficit of the Current Account (-6.5%) and Fiscal Account (-5.9%). That said, the Governmet interest payments account for as much as 3.9% of GDP. Activity Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 7.6% in 2022 fueled by the growth of exports, remittances and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. Colombian Monthly GDP Estimate fell -0.6% MoM in October (vs. -0.03% in September) and it is 4.6% above the previous year's level. In addition, it was mainly boosted by tertiary sector activities, such as professional and business services, with a 0.1% MoM rise, while secondary and primary activities showed negative variations of -1.5% and -2.1% MoM, respectively. Inflation Given the government's expansionary policies and similar pressures from the supply...
Alphacast Highlight - Colombia October 2022 Macro Brief
The Colombian economy is still adapting to the political swing of the Petro Administration, the first left-wing president ever! The macro flashes multiple warnings, and consensus for 2023 points to deceleration to 2.3%. 75% of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption, the highest figure in the region, and consumption is posed to decelerate in the context of high inflation (11% Yoy Headline but 25% food) and real wage contraction. The country faces a large and risky twin deficit of the current (-6.2%) and Fiscal (-5.9%) accounts and the Gov. Interest payments account for as much as 3.9% of GDP. On the onset of a major political swing, the balance of risk for Colombia is looking negative. Activity Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 6.0% in 2022, fueled by the growth of exports, remittances, and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. Colombian Monthly GDP Estimate grew 1.4% MoM in August (vs. -0.3% in July) and is 8.6% above the previous year's level, mainly boosted by secondary sector activities, such as manufacturing and construction, with a 3.4% MoM rise. Inflation Moreover, Colombia is suffering from an elevated inflation rate, given...
