Explore insights

Explore insights

  • Alphacast Highlight - Peru October 2022 Macro Brief

    chart

    Despite the recent slowdown, Peru is recording one of the highest rates of growth in the last decade across LATAM, falling behind Colombia only. However, most of this growth happened before the pandemic. After the Covid-19 outbreak, Peru has been struggling to return to its pre-Covid growth trend. Regarding politics, the government of Pedro Castillo became a turning point: political paralysis has eroded the investment climate, and the ongoing political tumult has subdued the economic growth outlook. On the markets, a larger global economic slowdown would undoubtedly have negative reverberations on Peru’s copper returns and economy. Added to this, at the local level the lagged effect of monetary and fiscal adjustment, and lower consumption driven by lower disposable income stopped the activity, while the drop in business expectations may further affect the dynamics of investment. In addition, the Central Bank is not discarding further hikes of the interest rate if inflation is not lowered within the target range, which could affect the level of economic activity. On a positive note, Peruvian fiscal and external balances are good compared with other peers, sovereign ranking is still good (BBB), the debt level (34% of GDP), and interest burden (1.4%) are quite low....

  • Alphacast Highlight - Uruguay (October 2022 Macro Brief)

    chart

    Uruguay's economy had been growing very slowly and unevenly over the past decade, especially in the last 7 years - with growth averaging 1.3% over the past decade and 0.6% over the past six. The Uruguayan economy is expected to continue growing in 2022 and 2023, particularly due to a reopening of tourism. Inflation has stayed above target for most of the decade, although the recent deviation is both larger and more prolonged than previous ones. Politics are expected to remain stable, with the current government being relatively popular, and elections not being scheduled for another two years. Activity GDP is expected to grow 5.2% in 2022 and 3% in 2023. After a moderate recovery in 2021 (4.4%), output is expected to increase in the current year and during the next one, both due to a rebound after the pandemic, but also due to better expectations for economic conditions. Industrial production grew 5.4% MoM and 9.3% YoY in August, following a disappointing performance in July (-1% YoY, -1.8% MoM). The fastest growing sectors have been Rubber and Plastics (+31.5% YoY), Chemicals (+20% YoY), and Food (+11.9% YoY). Inflation Headline inflation accelerated in September, with prices growing 10% YoY and 0.8%...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Mexico October 2022 Macro Brief

    chart

    Mexico has grown slowly in recent years, particularly since 2018. The Mexican economy hasd grown 1.2% on average in the last decade, but 0% in the last 5 years. In 2020, the country suffered its worst recession since the Great Depression, with GDP dropping 8.5% YoY - and the recovery was incomplete in 2021, with only 4.8% growth. The economy is expected to continue its recovery very slowly, with expectations in the 1-2% annual range for 2022 and 2023. This is due to the Mexican economy's close ties to US economic performance, a major difference from every other large Latin American country. Activity The economy is expected to grow 2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. In August, Mexico's monthly GDP estimate rose 5.7% YoY and 1.4% MoM, surpassing July's figure of 1.7% YoY and -0.7% MoM. Growth was led by Manufacturing Industries (+8.1% YoY), Services (+6.6% YoY), and Retail (+6.2% YoY). Growth in 2022 can be explained as a result of the still-ongoing recovery from the 2020 recession. Inflation Headline inflation accelerated in August. Annual inflation was 8.7% YoY in August, higher than July's 8.2% YoY printing. All segments of inflation accelerated, with the more volatile Non-Core prices growing...

  • Alphacast Highlight: Argentina's crowding out boosts corporate debt market

    chart

    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Crowding out skyrockets. The Treasury's need for financing, originated in sustained fiscal imbalances, leads the private sector to compete with the BCRA for scarce bank credit. That said, the Central Bank seeks to sterilize the inflationary impact of its monetary issuance. By the end of Sep-22, loans to the private sector represented 42% of deposits and 10% of GDP (vs. 76% and 11.4% in Dec-19, respectively). Likewise, the amount of pesos lent to the BCRA (ARS 7.97 tr) is outpacing private lending (ARS 6.4 tr) since May-21. This displacement of private credit by BCRA places corporate debt issuance as an alternative for firms to seek new forms of financing. Investors see value in corporate Energy sector. From the investor's perspective, corporate debt (ONs) provide the possibility to dollarize and reduce exposure to sovereign risk. Investors prioritized staying in the short end of the curve (MD<2) in Q3 and demanding corporate fixed income from the energy sector as a hedging asset-class. Among the ONs with better relative performance were Vista Oil 2024 (VSC3O 4.7% vs 5% 6-month ma), Pan American Energy 2027 (PNDCO 7% vs 5.6% 6-month ma), Capex 2024 (CAC2O...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Colombia October 2022 Macro Brief

    chart

    The Colombian economy is still adapting to the political swing of the Petro Administration, the first left-wing president ever! The macro flashes multiple warnings, and consensus for 2023 points to deceleration to 2.3%. 75% of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption, the highest figure in the region, and consumption is posed to decelerate in the context of high inflation (11% Yoy Headline but 25% food) and real wage contraction. The country faces a large and risky twin deficit of the current (-6.2%) and Fiscal (-5.9%) accounts and the Gov. Interest payments account for as much as 3.9% of GDP. On the onset of a major political swing, the balance of risk for Colombia is looking negative. Activity Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 6.0% in 2022, fueled by the growth of exports, remittances, and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. Colombian Monthly GDP Estimate grew 1.4% MoM in August (vs. -0.3% in July) and is 8.6% above the previous year's level, mainly boosted by secondary sector activities, such as manufacturing and construction, with a 3.4% MoM rise. Inflation Moreover, Colombia is suffering from an elevated inflation rate, given...

  • Brazil Macroeconomic Brief

    chart

    Lula Da Silva will be the next president. Although he did not present a specific economic program during his campaign, he said he would focus his government plan on fighting indebtedness and inflation (mainly food, energy, and fuel prices). He aims to resume public investment in infrastructure and housing so as to promote sustainable and stable economic development. Unlike Bolsonaro, and with a markedly statist bias, Lula has even promised to use Petrobras as a vehicle for national development. On the other hand, a key point is a fiscal issue. He plans to repeal the spending cap required by the Constitution, which might be translated into a deeper fiscal deficit. The reaction of the markets will depend on Jair Bolsonaro's response to the results obtained and on the fiscal policy signals of the leader of the workers' party, as well as the appointment of his advisers. Brazil has been dealing with a stagnant economy for a decade. Nonetheless, this year is showing the best performance since the crisis of 2014, driven mainly by investment. In addition to the fact that unemployment hit a 7-year low, consumption growth accelerated in Q2 even though real wages fell (8%). Meanwhile, export growth was...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Chile October 2022 Macro Brief

    chart

    Chile was among the fast-growing economies before it was hit by political turmoil in 2019. Ten years' growth is 2.1%. It grew fast after the pandemic and is now 7% above, fueled by consumption financed by three partial withdrawals of pension savings. In 2022 It's the only economy in the region that is contracting and is expected to contract in 2023 and in terms of FX and inflation it was the worst performer of the year. The rejection of the constitutional amendment may lead to a more market-friendly proposition. However social unrest, violence in the south, volatile copper prices, and the government’s weak parliamentary position imply a highly uncertain scenario. Activity In 2023 GDP is expected to fall 1.0%. In August, Chile's Monthly GDP Estimate grew for the second time in the year, of 0.65% MoM, while in annual terms it remained without changes. This growth was pushed by the services sector (+1.9% MoM), offsetting the fall of the wholesale and retail trade (-2% MoM). The slowdown of activity in 2022 can be explained by the cease in the Covid-19 transfers and the lack of impulse that the withdrawals of pension savings gave to the economy the previous year. Inflation...

  • Alphacast Highlight: Inflation-linked bonds forward rates

    chart

    By Mariano Sanchez Moreno (msanchez@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here For those who follow Argentina's capital markets, this chart might be the most important one to track in the coming months. The green line is the forward rate of inflation-adjusted bonds (CER Boncer bonds), but maturing in Aug-23 and Mar-24. Between that time frame, the primary and general presidential elections will take place, which will define the political force that will form the next Administration. In this hands-on guide, we will show how to use Alphacast to do the math regarding forward rates. In this case, we want to know how much a new CER bond should yield (i.e. its IRR) in Aug-23 and maturing in Mar-24. To solve it, we will fetch our bond dataset (from IAMC), which has IRR, MD, parity, time to maturity, among other figures. Before any calculation, a quick look at the structure of the dataset (long format, top of the image) shows that the tickers are stacked one above the other. But to perform operations between bonds (rows), we need first to "unstack" the dataset, so that the prices/IRR/etc are in columns (wide format, bottom of the image). This kind of transformation does not...

  • Encontrando un tipo de cambio de equilibrio macroeconómico

    chart

    Autor: Martín Basualdo. @Martinbasualdo0 Octubre 2022 20 años de historia cambiaria Repositorio publicado en Github. Cualquier sugerencia/crítica, contactarme por twitter. Agradezco enormemente a \@AlanVersalli por los comentarios, a \@LukoLucaG por el asesoramiento en todo relacionado a la programación y a Gus por la serie del IPC. La idea del presente trabajo fue la estimación de cuál debería ser la devaluación necesaria (con actualización diaria) para retornar a un nivel de tipo de cambio real multilateral (ITCRM, que da la noción de competitividad frente a los principales socios comerciales en el área de manufacturas) promedio entre junio 2002 y diciembre 2006. Luego del salto en el tipo de cambio del 2002, el régimen cambiario del gobierno se basó en el sostenimiento de un tipo de cambio "competitivo y estable", al mantener el ITCRM en torno a 160. El objetivo consistió en la acumulación de reservas mediante un robusto superávit comercial. Esto permitió acelerar un proceso de desendeudamiento al mismo tiempo que tornó sostenible al crecimiento económico y salarial. El resultado final del trabajo es el siguiente: Una devaluación de alrededor un 80% estimada tiene enormes consecuencias económicas y sociales. En el corto plazo, el desempleo y la inflación repuntan, mientras que...

  • Coyuntura macro local: Atado con alambre

    chart

    Modelo de crisis de primera generación: con TCN fijo, déficit fiscal financiado con emisión hace perder reservas hasta que no alcanzan. Resultado: corrida y flotación. Particularidades de nuestra coyuntura: El cepo gana tiempo pero no evita la crisis Las reservas se pierden por otro lado (CC vs CK) Financiamiento del déficit forzado por regulación (cepo + disposiciones BCRA) Incentivos desalineados: necesidades macro vs deseos políticos Más que "Plan Ganar", se trata de un "Plan Llegar". Aguantar hasta dic-23 y ahí encarar las reformas de fondo. Actividad: Viene bien pero... El desempleo bajó a niveles históricamente bajos (amén de la veracidad del INDEC intervenido). Pero el crecimiento parece ir perdiendo impulso Y las perspectivas para los próximos años no son muy alentadoras. ¿Después del rebote viene otra crisis? Los 3 termómetros Termómetro externo: Faltan dólares (o sobran compradores) Dólares comerciales hay. El problema es que se escurren por el resto del BdP Sufren las reservas internacionales La brecha se mantiene alta (en parte) por esto. Volvimos a picos de 2020 y 21 Y el mercado espera más depreciación Termómetro fiscal: La verdadera causa de la fiebre Déficit primario camino al 2.5% pero con “creatividad” IMIG: La pandemia nos dejó en mismo punto que antes de la crisis… de 2018. Pasar la tijera fiscal es difícil. Y se suma el problema del financiamiento. Hay que pagar un Aconcagua de pesos a corto plazo (y algo de FMI + CdP) Donde los pesos indexados son cada vez más (no se licúan!), porque el mercado lo demanda para aceptar refinanciar Bonos por el piso: Pricean default y/o re-estructuración Monetario: Continúa la dominancia fiscal (se emite lo que el Tesoro precisa) La inyección de liquidez sigue dando vueltas por el sistema financiero Termómetro de precios: La inflación alta es una característica del modelo Camino al 100 Nadie espera que baje sustancialmente BCRA: Pocas reservas, algo de futuros, ¿usará la tasa? Si les interesa aprender más sobre Alphacast, pueden mirar los videos en YouTube o leer los Tutoriales en nuestra página web. También tenemos un canal de soporte en Discord y un chatbot. Los esperamos! Muchas gracias!

  • Intro a la Automatización de Análisis de Coyuntura

    chart

    Alphacast: Sobre nosotros Todo análisis parte de los datos. Y es un proceso que lleva su tiempo. Alphacast es una plataforma pensada para ayudar a los equipos de economía y finanzas a encontrar, transformar, analizar y compartir datos de manera ágil y colaborativa. ¿Qué buscamos? Que aproveches tu tiempo. Ahorrar horas de trabajo en tareas repetitivas, aburridas y propensas a errores. ¿Para quién está pensado Alphacast? ATP (estudiantes, consultoras, brokers, think tanks, etc) ¿Quién crea contenido? Alphacast Featured publishers Usuarios ¿Qué se puede hacer en Alphacast? Arranquemos con la Home y luego vamos con un caso concreto. Básicamente, Alphacast permite hacer todo el proceso de análisis, de punta a punta: Buscar datos (Datasets) Transformarlos (Pipelines) Graficarlos (Charts) Armar reportes (Dashboards) Compartirlos (Share!) Otras aplicaciones: Integración con Excel y Google Drive Integración con Excel para Mac Integración con Power BI Intergración con Python Si les interesa aprender más sobre Alphacast, pueden mirar los videos en YouTube o leer los Tutoriales en nuestra página web. También tenemos un canal de soporte en Discord. Los esperamos! Muchas gracias!

  • Alphacast Highlight - Central Banks reacted strongly to higher inflation rates

    chart

    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Inflation in Latin America, rapidly accelerated in 2021 and 2022 after the deflationary slowdown in 2020, as a result of both increased demand after stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, and of supply factors ranging from international shipping delays to a commodity price shock given the events in Eastern Europe. The region's highest inflation rate is Argentina's 78.5%, which follows the country's singular price dynamics and economic policies. Meanwhile, the rest of the region is experiencing high inflation rates, led by Chile's 14.1% YoY, Paraguay's 10.5%, Colombia's 10.2%, Brazil's 8.8%, Mexico's 8.7%, and Peru's 8.4%. Ecuador, which has adopted the US dollar as its currency, is experiencing a lower inflation rate of 3.8%, and Bolivian price growth has barely budged - to 1.6% a year even in the most inflationary global environment in half a century. Following this spike in price growth, the region's Central Banks have embarked on an aggressive tightening cycle, as in the rest of the world. In response to the newly inflationary global context, central banks have raised rates to their highest levels in years, and in some cases decades. This rapid tightening of financial conditions serves dual...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Latin America slowing down.

    chart

    Global growth is slowing, USA demand has been dwindling for two quarters in a row, Europe is in the middle of a historical energy crisis, and China faces threats that leave "Chinese growth" years far in the past. Most analysts foresee further deceleration for 2023. What to expect for Latin America in this context? In terms of middle/long-term growth, Latin America can be split into three groups: The smaller-pacific-growing-countries: Colombia (3.0% 10 years average), Peru (2.8%), and Chile 2.1%, and the bigger-slow-or-no-growth Mexico (1.2%), Brazil (0.2%) and Argentina (0.2%). Uruguay (1.5%) stands in the middle. Smaller-pacific-growing-countries Colombia is the fastest-growing economy in the region. It is expected to grow 6.0% in 2022 and accumulates a strong 9.0% growth vs. the pre-pandemic levels. Colombia's growth this year has been fueled by the growth of exports, remittances, and a positive fiscal shock pushed by the electoral cycle. However, the Colombian economy is still adapting to the political swing of the Petro Administration, the first left-wing president ever! The macro flashes multiple warnings, and consensus for 2023 points to deceleration to 2.3%. 75% of Colombia's global demand is explained by private consumption, the highest figure in the region, and consumption is posed to...

  • Alphacast Highlight - Inflation accelerated in 2022, following commodity price surge

    chart

    By Maia Mindel (mmindel@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Following global trends, inflation rapidly accelerated in 2022 in Latin America, as a result of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to counteract the 2020 recession brought on by the COVID pandemic, disruptions to international supply chains, and recent geopolitical tensions, as well as political uncertainty in a large swathe of the region. Broadly, patterns in all countries are similar: after a depressed inflation rate during 2020, as a result of lower spending during the worst months of the pandemic, inflation began accelerating in the second half of 2021 and reached the highest levels in decades. This follows global trends, with price spillovers between countries being a possibility, as well as the effects of supply-side constraints last year, and of the War in Ukraine during the past seven months. Largely, inflation rates reflect a broad acceleration of the rate of price growth, rather than an increase in specific items (particularly food and energy), although it is clear that food inflation and global energy prices have contributed to the recent increases in cost of living. The combination of broad-based price increases with specific commodity market disruptions poses a significant challenge to policymakers. Argentina...