Alphacast

Alphacast

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Argentina's Real FX is at its lowest level in 4 years

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By Juan Carlos Hallak "We all know that the way out is to increase exports. However, all efforts to achieve this are fading with a falling (real) dollar. In fact, we are at the highest point of exchange rate appreciation of the AF era. How can we explain that the official FX is falling?" Related dataset: Monetary - Argentina - BCRA - Multilateral Real FX...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Argentina's inflation: The worse Q1 in 30 years

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By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "If #inflation in March is 6.5%, it would close at 15.6% (80% annualized) during Q1-2022. Since '43 (excluding the period from '76 to '91), only 3 years have had worse YTD starts ('45, '59 and '73). Current levels are very similar to Q1-1975, the quarter before the Rodrigazo (85% annualized)." Related dataset [Inflation - Latin America - Alphacast - Consumer Price Index - Headline - Monthly...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Argentina: On IMF-related interest

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By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "Argentina has asked for the IMF to assist it through an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) to pay the previous Stand By Agreement (SBA, signed in 2018). As stated by the Fund in EFF's factsheet the interest burden is the base rate (1.2%) plus a surcharge, which depends on how much is requested and for how long. For large credits (above of 187.5% of each country's quota in the IMF), the surcharge is 2%. If after 51 months the residual loan is still above 187%, the surcharge rises to 3%. That said, the Argentina's EFF represents over 1000% of its quota: for a long time, our country will pay at least 3.2% per year. Taking into account that, the outstanding capital payments of the SBA is meant to be paid with the upcoming EFF credits, both loans' interest must be paid as well. On Jun-26, 51 months after the first EFF disbursements, the rate rises to 4.2%. Meaning? On USD 44bn, for over 12 years, Argentina will have to face interest rates between 3.2% and 4.2%." Related dataset Fiscal - Argentina - Public Debt Profile...

camila

 - 1 minute to read

Monetary Base Expansion Factors

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By Nery Persichini @nerypersi "Interest" is the item that pushes the most the creation of currency in 2021. Sales of USD and AT's refunds (via DEGs) moderated other factors. Each new $1 of currency has 3.3 of interest. BCRA's debt, the only counterweight: 1.34 trillion for new passes and LELIQ. Related Dataset Monetary - Argentina - BCRA - SERIESE y BAS - Selected -...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Latam - Headline CPI inflation

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By Martin Castellano "Inflation is on the rise in LatAm after intense COVID-19-driven disinflationary pressure. Despite still-negative output gaps, persistent fiscal weakness, and potentially tougher external conditions could accelerate the unwinding of monetary stimulus" #LATAM #BRA #CHI #COL #PER #MEX Related Datasets Inflation - Mexico - INEGI - Consumer Price Index - Headline, Groups and Subgroups - Monthly Inflation - Peru - INEI - Consumer Price Index - Lima - 2009 = 100 - Monthly Inflation - Colombia - DANE - Consumer Price Index - By categories - Monthly Inflation - Chile - INE - 2009 Consumer Price Index - Spliced Series - Monthly Prices - Brazil - FIPE - Consumer Prices...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Argentina - Historical and Implicit Inflation

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by Fran Mattig "The market expects a very similar average inflation for the next 5 years to the last 5 years, which in turn is one of the highest in history, excluding the hyperinflation times. It would be something like 60% next year and 50%, 40%, 30% and 30% in the next 4. What's up?" #Argentina Related Datasets Inflation - Latin America - Alphacast - Consumer Price Index - Headline -...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

S&P Merval in USD vs Global Bonds

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by Julián Yosovitch "Either market is wrong. Stocks pullbacked as bonds keep falling. There is a clear dissociation between the two in the last month and a half. Are stocks or bonds wrong? Are stocks expensive or bonds cheap? Great chart https://cronista.com/finanzas-mercados/algun-mercado-esta-equivocado-se-recuperan-las-acciones-pero-caen-los-bonos-de-cara-a-las-elecciones-de-noviembre/" #Argentina Related Datasets Financial - Argentina - Sovereign Bonds - Historical Prices - Daily Financial - Argentina - Equity - Merval -...

chia

 - 4 minutes to read

Crowding Out | CEA Perspectives

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By Centro de Economia Aplicada Perspectives' column for October 2021. This section of the Center for Applied Economics (CEA) of UCEMA offers an analysis of prominent economists, with different orientations about economic problems of our country and the world. The plan to pay off the debt is to grow. The plan to reduce the fiscal deficit is to grow. The plan to lower inflation is to grow. The plan to reduce poverty is to grow. It seems that the solution to everything is economic growth. Unfortunately, we do not grow. The causes of the economic stagnation (to be generous) that has trapped us since 2011 are undoubtedly many, but today I want to focus on one: the lack of credit to the productive private sector. To grow you have to invest. If an entrepreneur wants to invest, he has two paths: he can use his own funds or he can resort to the capital market and obtain funds from third parties. The Argentine capital market is non-existent. According to the World Bank, the market capitalization of all publicly listed companies in Argentina is equivalent to 8.8% of GDP. In Brazil, the market capitalization is equivalent to 68.4% of GDP, in...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Central Bank's International Reserves

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by Fran Mattig "Ok, the dynamics are bad. But there is also no loose reserve stock to defend it. Our net liquid reserves give us even more, but low (and there are colleagues with more acidic and reasonable measures that are already less). Exchange corrections occurred with levels higher than this 3/11" #Argentina Related Datasets Monetary - Argentina - International Reserves -...

marianosanchez

 - 1 minute to read

Argentina: October's fiscal result

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by El Cronista "The "Platita" plan, the economic measures that the government took in order to try to reverse the results of the PASO elections, had an obvious correlation in a rising of public expenditure by 83% YoY and an increase in the deficit in October. https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/el-plan-platita-obligo-a-martin-guzman-a-abrir-la-billetera-antes-de-las-elecciones/" #Argentina Related Datasets Fiscal - Argentina - MECON - IMIG -...