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Staff Picks
Brazilian Exchange Rate
by Robin Brooks "We're in the middle of a disorderly rise in long-term US real yields, which is weighing on all EM, including Brazil's Real. The more disorderly this gets, the shorter it will last, because the Fed will be forced to backtrack. So our Brazilian Real $/BRL fair value stays at 4.50." Related Datasets Monetary - Brazil - BCB - Exchange...
Real GDP in Latin America
by Robin Brooks Colombia (pink): +36% Peru (green): +34% Chile (red): +27% Mexico (yellow): +13% Argentina (black): +3% Brazil (blue): 0% Related Datasets Activity - Latin America - Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -...
Brazil Activity Index
By BTG Pactual "Brazil: IBC-Br +0.34% in February m/m, below expectations (0.4%), with an upward revision in the previous month (from -1.0% to -0.73%), according to BTG economists. Services Sector -0.2% m/m, below market expectations, and Expanded Retail +2.0%, above expectations." Related Datasets Activity - Brazil - BCB - Gross Domestic...
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Alphacast
Alphacast Highlight - Monetary tightening amidst soaring inflation
By Matías Carugati (matias@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here With the pandemic shock well behind, central Banks worldwide have been reacting to the inflation surge. The monetary policy tightening started early last year and has continued since. The number of central banks increasing their policy rate is even higher than in the previous cycle, just before the global financial crisis. Not surprising, considering that inflation has soared to numbers not seen in decades. Policy reaction in developed economies has been relatively recent, with most relevant central banks moving in 2022. Compared to previous tightening cycles, though, their reaction seems more abrupt. However, more action will likely be required. Policy rates are still below the levels they had before the global financial crisis, with inflation pressures not subsiding over the short term. Keeping the expectations well-anchored will require decisive action by central banks. Developing economies, and Latin American ones in particular, have moved with more emphasis. The tightening started sooner and was stronger than in developed economies. In part, because inflation rose to higher levels and expectations are not as well anchored. But also because the IT regime that most banks follow requires to maintain credibility. It is possible that monetary...
Alphacast Highlight - Argentina's opposition has key to Budget Bill
By Matías Carugati (matias@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Argentina's government has sent the 2023 Budget Bill to Congress, but approval might not be a "walk in the park", particularly in the Upper House. With 118 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the officialism is short 11 seats to reach simple majority and move the discussion to the Senate. In that chamber, the government's position is better, as it has 35 seats and would only require an extra ally to pass the bill. The political composition of Congress forces the government to negotiate part of its legislative agenda. This year's Budget Bill was not approved by Congress and Alberto Fernández is running the government without one, which is more than an administrative nuisance. The Budget Bill sets fiscal policy, provides some basic macro forecasts and is the legal authorization for funds to be distributed (and spent) by all branches of government. Even the IMF has included the approval of Budget Bills in its recent deal with Argentina. Negotiations between officialism and opposition will be needed if Alberto Fernández wants to have a Budget Law in his last year as President. See here detailed information about Argentina's National...
Alphacast Highlight - Investment rates in LATAM recovered in 2022
By Milagros Ricchini (mricchini@alphacast.io) Read more Alphacast Highlights here Having been strongly hit at the onset of the Pandemic, in 2022 the investment rate is recovering throughout the region The investment rate in Chile is 24% of GDP, the highest and most stable rate in the region. Surprisingly, during 2020 Chile investment was mildly affected in comparative terms, and is now above pre-pandemic levels, even despite recent years' hike in political uncertainty. Over the last year, investment grew 7.4% compared to 5.4% of GDP growth. Analyzing the last 10 years, Chile’s investment dynamics were positive compared to the region, accumulating a 15% growth, but negative compared to developed economies such as the United States, Euro Area, or the United Kingdom. Peru was strongly hit by Covid but has already recovered its investment rate, positioning as the highest of the region with a level of 26%. In the short run, investment growth is very modest with an annual growth rate of only 1.1% vs GDP’s 3.3%, signaling that investment isn’t nowadays a driver of Peru’s economic activity. Argentina is an unusual case. The country is showing a record-high investment rate, that is driven not by real investment opportunities but by the...