Staff picks

By Mariano Sanchez Moreno "The carry trade is back, long live the carry trade. Throughout Treasury's auctions we might see that when the rates in pesos were positive after hedging through FX futures (ergo investing in ARS yields USD gains) the FX faced less devaluation pressures. During the lasy weeks, the carry trade helped to “calm down” the dollar, which appreciated by 22% from the peak of ARS 244 at the end of last January. Will this FX peace last? The rate hiking by BCRA turned the spotlight on carry trade strategies, but it is currently offset by both rising futures’ prices and an accelerating inflation. Besides, there is an additional variable that could push-up the depreciation pace of the peso: the BCS’s cost, which is at a 15-month low. That said, it could encourage investors to take advantage of the state of affairs and to wire their USD abroad." Related dataset Financial - Argentina - Carry...

By CIF UTDT @CIF_UTDT "Expected inflation by the population for the next 12 months is 46.7% YoY" Related Datatsets Inflation - Argentina - UTDT - Expectations Survey Inflation - Argentina - INDEC - Consumer Price Index - Groups - Monthly Inflation - Argentina - BCRA - Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado...

By Matias Kulfas @KulfasM "The industrial production estimates by CEPXXI for September are very encouraging. Industry performed 14.7% above September of 2019, 8.9% above September of 2018, and 8.4% above the 2019 average." > 14 out of 14 sectors used more energy (correlated with output) in September of 2021 than in the same month of 2019. 64% of industrial firms produced more than in September of 2019. Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Industrial Production - Monthly Activity - Argentina - FIEL - Industrial Production - Monthly Activity - Argentina - Selected Indicators Activity - Argentina - Electricity demand by manufacturing...

by Robin Brooks "LatAm real GDP growth: Q4 2019 to Q4 2021 Chile (red): +10.1% Colombia (pink): +8.0% Argentina (black): +5.0% Peru (dots): +2.1% Brazil (blue): +1.1% Mexico (orange): -2.5%" Related Datasets Activity - Argentina - INDEC - Monthly Gross Domestic Product Estimate (EMAE) - Monthly_Long Activity - Brazil - BCB - Gross Domestic Product Activity - Chile - BCCh - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Colombia - DANE - Monthly Gross Domestic Product - Monthly Activity - Mexico - INEGI - Monthly Gross Domestic Product...